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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

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ICON model never gets KC above freezing late this week. Mostly snow on this run.

 

GFS still cold on the front end for snow/ice for 12 hours, but it has us surging into the 40’s Friday afternoon.

 

How strong will that arctic high be and will the cold be stubborn to get out of here. Models have trouble with eroding cold air out, we’ll see what happens.

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GFS going north more.  North...south...north...south... model flip flop.  MN & most of WI remain golden on whatever model you chose as the over running moisture is so widespread everybody on here just about is going to get precip, it's just a matter of what form.  Must be nice to never have to worry about rain/snow lines.  We live and die by them down here in Iowa.  

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Wpc still saying snow here. I don't think they agree with the current model output

 

OAX grids just have rain/snow, but the forecast discussion mentions sleet/zr also possible. Weird. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week.

Widespread 4-8” for you folks up north?

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18z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_150.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_144.png

 

18z definitely a step back from 12z for here. Seems the SLP is allowed to cut just a bit more as it comes towards/into Michigan. 

 

GFS has certainly slowed the progression over the last few runs:

 

20200113 gfs_comparison for 18z Sat Jan 19.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looking at today's WPC hazards map, they must be buying that 18z GFS run, lol

 

We finally begin to see "Hvy Snow" contours somewhere other than the areas already known as storm magnets, but they're giving a nod to Iowa, not the Mitt. 

 

20200113 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On a side note, I narrowly missed a 32F or below day here. Temps for once under-performed (I think their call yesterday was mid-upr 30s?) as we hit 33F only and stuck there all day. Helps explain how so much of the scant snow/mix cover survived. Still on track for a pair of 40s but I see they've lowered my temps for Thur-Friday even more. From Wed night it's solidly below freezing right up til storm time Friday pm which is great news for this guy. Almost as exciting as the potential snow tbh. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I really don't like where I sit for this system, especially currently. I feel that areas north of I-20 are in for the best snow, whereas areas south of there get 2-3" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and a little bit of ice. I don't really foresee rain due to that high pressure pumping cold, dry air in from canada, keeping the surface cold. But there's a long period of WAA aloft and I think models may actually be underdoing it.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. 

 

At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa!  As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? 

 

@ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thx

I haven't noticed it being more generous.  On the last storm it was better with the track than the op however they both tanked on accumulation.

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Yeah I can't say I love where I sit either. Any snow we get is just gonna get immediately mutilated by rain. Obviously it's 5 days out and a 30 mile South shift would make a huge difference but if I get another rainstorm, I'm cancelling Winter.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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18z EC a tic north

1579456800-moIx0hERcnA.png

 

While models such as the 18z GFS Op went north and bring more rain/warmth, they are advertising a pretty strong SLP (12z Euro has 988 mb over Huron) and what that robs from the front side, they deliver via follow-on LES on the backside. Would prefer it trends back south a couple notches, but either way, should be one of the better events around here so far this season. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yeah I can't say I love where I sit either. Any snow we get is just gonna get immediately mutilated by rain. Obviously it's 5 days out and a 30 mile South shift would make a huge difference but if I get another rainstorm, I'm cancelling Winter.

 

Still wager KTOL sees more snow than this past weekend. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week.

Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

I agree. You can see models are showing an enormous shield of precip we don’t often see with winter storms. And models are already starting to dial back qpf a little. I think where I am 3-6” is a best case scenario. Further north 4-8 or maybe 6-10” is on the table.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

Honestly I’ve been looking at the precip totals the last few days and not really thinking they look legit. You’re absolutely right that the previous closed lows generally haven’t produced snow amounts that match what the models had been showing. When in doubt, best to assume the lower end of the range will verify.

 

With that being said, it does look like a decent hit....for now.

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GFS is awful.  It's fairly warm, plus the precip shield continues to weaken with each new run.  Plus, it keeps shifting the surface low farther north.... now up to Minnesota.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Over the last four runs, the GFS has gradually transitioned to this depiction of an extension of the surface low up into Minnesota.  A day ago, the GFS looked like the other models.  I wouldn't worry about this unless you see it on other models.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^^ strange bouncing continues

 

Meanwhile, ICON shows E Neb crew some love and otherwise kinda janky with it's snow coverage. Seems to wrap-up just E of SMI into Huron (common theme) and gives some LES for far SWMI

 

20200114 0z ICON h144 Snowfall.png

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS and CMC similar with placement of L at hours 84 and 90. Thermally  they are very close - CMC shows more snow where the GFS shows non snow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK does not look like the GFS.

 

Models are slowing this system.  It had looked ideal for precip timing, with the snow starting near sunrise.  Now the models are trending toward an afternoon start.  Just watch.... this will probably end up starting just after dark in the evening again.  If that happens, I'll rip my hair out.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^ could you post the UKIE?

 

There's not much to post that really tells anything.  I wish the UK maps included rain/snow.

 

This map shows the UK at the same hour the GFS has a low in sw WI.  That said, the UK still does push the surface freezing line well north, through Cedar Rapids and far southern Wisconsin.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020011400_108_5660_149.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I’m not so sure about that with a 1044mb high drifting east from W Alberta into Saskatchewan. But, we’ll see.

That's typically a GFS bias of being to progressive.  It did the same thing with the last storm as well right around this range.  The worst case scenario is if the storm splits the HP to the N and cuts NW which systems have done earlier this season.  I will argue, however, that this late in the season it would favor a strong HP given the pattern evolving.

 

Meanwhile, I don't think anyone posted the 00z Canadian...

 

GDPSUS_prec_kuchsnow_141.png

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