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Been around the block a few times. Even though it's climo coldest time - I sense more ice/mix for those S of 43 Latitude in IA- it may snow in the first stages but much of that will be smoked by 34F and a -RA.

Hope I'am wrong. And why do I almost always "hope Iam wrong"?

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

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00z Euro....a shift N across N IL but looks like mostly snow from the WI/IL border on N...both N IL/S MI switch over the RN on the Euro as it deepens and tracks thru MI.  I-80 on N in IA stays mostly SN from what I can tell.  The SLP tracks directly over Chicago this run while the Ukie is about 50-100 miles south.

 

00z UKIE takes a track from C MO/C IL/N IN/SE MI...it also strengthens as it heads up towards the GL's.  Hard to tell from the maps I got where the RN/SN line ends up but given the track of the storm it may suggest its farther South.  There was a new development on the Ukie as it is showing a 2-wave scenario.  The first being a widespread over-running event across E NE/IA/MN/IL/WI/MI and then it looks like the precips shield wants to form into a developed defo band across KS/MO/C IL/IN/MI as the storm takes shape.  Let's see if this is just a one run fluke or something to monitor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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00z Euro....a shift N across N IL but looks like mostly snow from the WI/IL border on N...both N IL/S MI switch over the RN on the Euro as it deepens and tracks thru MI.  I-80 on N in IA stays mostly SN from what I can tell.  The SLP tracks directly over Chicago this run while the Ukie is about 50-100 miles south.

 

00z UKIE takes a track from C MO/C IL/N IN/SE MI...it also strengthens as it heads up towards the GL's.  Hard to tell from the maps I got where the RN/SN line ends up but given the track of the storm it may suggest its farther South.  There was a new development on the Ukie as it is showing a 2-wave scenario.  The first being a widespread over-running event across E NE/IA/MN/IL/WI/MI and then it looks like the precips shield wants to form into a developed defo band across KS/MO/C IL/IN/MI as the storm takes shape.  Let's see if this is just a one run fluke or something to monitor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'am not buying the 4-6" the latest GFS and Euro show and for certain the CMC for C.IA. Trends are not good. Personally think WAA will win out and places in E.NE to C.IA will see mostly a mix. Another 1-3, maybe 2-4 event if that region is lucky. Would like to hear a rebuttal from others--- Golden is most of MN and C.WI. Just my .02. Prove me wrong but seen this situation to many times pan out to WAA at the best for E.NE into C.IA.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'am not buying the 4-6" the latest GFS and Euro show and for certain the CMC for C.IA. Trends are not good. Personally think WAA will win out and places in E.NE to C.IA will see mostly a mix. Another 1-3, maybe 2-4 event if that region is lucky. Would like to hear a rebuttal from others--- Golden is most of MN and C.WI. Just my .02. Prove me wrong but seen this situation to many times pan out to WAA at the best for E.NE into C.IA.

I agree with, at this point if we continue to see the SLP track N, you and I will see the best snows from the WAA for NE/IA into N IL/S MI.  The golden locals will be from MN into WI where the seasons magnet has been.  Unless we see a weakening of the SLP, the RN/SN will come N across IA/IL/IN/S MI as there is no way around it at this stage.  I don't see any way around it unless the Ukie wins out in terms of track.  I'll finish with this though, the 00z Euro Control is south in comparison to the Euro/GFS and similar to the Ukie.  

 

The spread is 50/50 per the EPS in terms of track.  The strong lows take a track into S WI/N IL while the weaker ones are into C IL/IN like the UKIE/CMC/Euro Control.  For those of us farther south, we may want to root for a weaker developing SLP.

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The GFS is going to win out with a N trend even though 06Z showed ok snows in C.Ia. I expect the 12Z package will advect in more warm air at 850mb (similar to 00Z) as it does take into account upper soundings. Don't trust 06 and 18Z guidance at this range

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Really liking Des Moines morning discussion. All on board for potential heavy snow:

 

Other than the aforementioned potential hazards...patchy dense fog

this morning and a possibility of freezing drizzle late

tonight/early Wednesday...all eyes are on the winter storm slated

to affect much of the region around Friday. Only minor changes

have occurred in the expected evolution of this system since last

night. The timing is slightly slower, only a few hours, and

confidence in precipitation type has increased with snow being the

predominant expectation. The warm elevated layer so prominent in

forecast soundings last night is much more muted tonight, being

present more west and south of our forecast area, and forecast

temperatures are a few degrees colder during the day Friday. As a

result there is now relatively high confidence in widespread

moderate to heavy snow accumulations across much of Iowa from

Friday through Friday night. However, confidence remains low in

precise accumulations and in the areas/timing of heaviest

accumulation. Will continue to gradually ramp up messaging of this

storm as it will have a significant impact on at least portions

of the forecast area, but specific snowfall amounts and any

considerations of a winter storm watch will have to wait for

subsequent shifts. On the backside of the system, from Friday

night through Saturday, there is still an expectation of strong

northwest winds that may reach advisory criteria and will almost

certainly lead to some blowing/drifting of snow in areas where

heavy accumulations occur. Northwesterly mid-level steering flow

is then anticipated for multiple days afterward, yielding a

classic set-up for a period of frigid winter weather with snow

pack on the ground, which is a far cry from what we have seen so

far this winter.

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MPX considered issuing a watch already but decided to hold off. From the morning disco:

 

Ensemble and probabilistic guidance continue to

highlight rather high probabilities (>75%) of QPF amounts greater

than 0.5" across most of the CWA, with the potential for higher

amounts looking most likely across the eastern half of Minnesota

and west- central Wisconsin. Expect this precipitation to fall

entirely as snow as forecast soundings look to keep any

precipitation type issues south of the Iowa/Minnesota border.

Little question weather it will snow across the CWA, with the real

remaining question being how much and where exactly the heaviest

amounts set up. As stated earlier, guidance has remained

consistent in highlighting the heaviest QPF/snowfall amounts

across the eastern half of Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin so

have the highest confidence in the potential for significant

snowfall amounts of greater than 6-8" across these areas.

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Iirc December 1st SLP actually slid by South of the Mitt due to blocking. Allowing for snow to fall unexpectedly farther south (just one county NW of here). At this later stage of winter I wouldn't expect it to be further north. The Low was north further west in Iowa tho and brought MSP mixing issues and much less snow than was forecast. I feel good about the more southerly track tbh.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Unless ICON and Canadian are correct then I'm throwing in the towel as well. At least I'll be able to safely drive to Plymouth for a hockey game on Saturday.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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My early guess for Cedar Rapids is 3 inches.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS maintains an elongated SLP that covers all of iowa up to southern MN.  Gonna  have to be a lot further south to get the snowiest solution us Iowans are hoping for.  Still a solid front end thumping of snow though.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Is anything going to live up to its potential this winter?

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z ICON just did what the Ukie showed last night and trying to develop a defo band out in KS/MO into IL/MI

The ICON is the only model that didn't predict high amounts of snow on the last storm and shows a track similar to previous cycles it should be watched IMO.

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Even though the Euro is much further south with the SLP, the snow totals are about the same as the GFS.  This will be a Twin Cities crush job yet again.  Winter Storm Watches should be posted by this afternoon or tomorrow morning at the latest.  Down here, we should get an advisory out of this, possibly a watch to an advisory.  If we get 4-6" that's a pretty big snowstorm down here anymore.  We have not received many > 6" snowfalls over the past 5 years.  Maybe two or three.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Canadian is still farther south, but the snow is less intense, totals lower.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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