Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[snowstorm83]

Only hope here is that models are overdoing the WAA. 

[Madtown]

[jaster220]

Almost all of those are really nice hits for me

 

That's why WPC has you in the Hvy Snow contour no doubt. They go by percentages and right now they're in your favor. 

[jaster220]

If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. 

 

Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. 

[Niko]

Looks like this storm will have less ice to content with than the previous storm, thankfully. So, either you are getting all snow, mix snow n rain, or snow to rain and etc and etc. There will be no warm air overriding the cold air this time to create that darn ice. Yayyyyyyyy!!!!

[hlcater]

Euro also has the surface trough extending into MN and has a lot more rain than previous runs. Snow totals for CR/IC halved to 3”. God this winter sucks

[Hawkeye]

Euro is now trending toward the warmer GFS.  Just end this stupid winter already.

[Stacsh]

If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. 

 

Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. 

 

What about the Euro's warmer look?

[BMT]

Sigh... well maybe they will all be wrong again and we’ll end up with a surprise this time? I’ll roll with that for now.

[Stormhunter87]

So snow late Thursday night then as the low drags north freezing rain sets in. The maybe some rain. Friday looks like crap.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

 

[hlcater]

Shows a pretty widespread ice storm, which if that’s the case, I’d 100% rather it just flat out rain. I absolutely hate ice, which is probably the rreason we’ll get some.

[St Paul Storm]

Well, not sure what to say other than I fully expect the models to start lowering those ridiculously high totals. Although 1-2” is from tomorrow’s system.

[East Dubzz]

Snow, then ice, then rain. If it was all going to mix like that, I wish it was the other way around.

[james1976]

Gonna be a Fargo-Duluth special yet

[Stormgeek]

One thing I have learned this winter: don't trust the models until flakes are flying. They have been really overdoing things up until showtime in this neck of the woods. Cautiously optimistic is how I will approach this storm. Hope for a healthy sbow, expect 4 inches.

[Niko]

If one recalls the 11/30-12/01 storm, it also shot a SLP rather far N, then due to the blocking, it stalled, headed E about a state, state and a half before dipping back a bit ESE skirting the southern edge of Michigan before devolving eastward as the EC energy took over. The models showing a multi-wave scenario where the initial gets kinda northward, and a secondary re-develops would kinda fit the LRC's take on this event. 

 

Ofc, nothing set in rock yet, but I'm not going to presume the GFS's warmer look is the "final answer" either. 

Yes sir! I agree. I mean, its only Tuesday!

 

[Tom]

12z EPS snow mean...

 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

watching but not overly invested in this one, but wasnt it last Tues where things looked stronger and NW then corrected back to previous runs?

[Tom]

watching but not overly invested in this one, but wasnt it last Tues where things looked stronger and NW then corrected back to previous runs?

You read my mind and I was just about to say the same thing!  It was 3 days prior where the storm track was right over the top of Chicago and then the SE trend began.  To the contrary, however, this set up is a bit different and I could see this system end up where its being modeled.

[Clinton]

15z SREF mean

[GDR]

Oh yeah right on cue! But it’s not done moving north

[bud2380]

Gonna have to accept this is at best a 3-5" for most of E Iowa, which is what we typically get around here with snow storms.  I'll still take it, especially if it's a daytime snow, that would be nice.  

[Stacsh]

GRR forecast office calling for "Dry Slot" then PLAIN RAIN Saturday.  More flooding.  Yay!  This winter is epic.  

[gimmesnow]

It's ok everyone, winter always starts two weeks from now!

[St Paul Storm]

Thinking MPX holds off on a possible watch until tomorrow to avoid confusion with tomorrow mornings snow. Plus this thing has slowed a bit. That stalled 1045mb high in S ON causing a stall.

[james1976]

850s on the NAM look colder compared to other models FWIW

[SE Wisconsin]

Euro is now trending toward the warmer GFS.  Just end this stupid winter already.

Couldn't agree more!

[bud2380]

The NAM sure looked good, but must be a ton of sleet and ice down here, because it only drops about 2" of snow on .7" qpf all with temps below freezing.  Neat.  

[james1976]

The NAM sure looked good, but must be a ton of sleet and ice down here, because it only drops about 2" of snow on .7" qpf all with temps below freezing. Neat.

What's it look like for snow up this way?

[bud2380]

TT vs. Pivotal illustrates the sleet/ice once again.  

 

 

 

[james1976]

Des Moines afternoon AFD is still going with widespread snow and not much confidence in mixed precip. Interesting:

 

The well advertised storm

system will begin to lift across the state and while models have

delayed the start somewhat...beginning mid Friday morning, but

once it begins, snow will fall in earnest. We continue to have

high confidence is widespread moderate to heavy snowfall...

especially north and east but exact locations and amounts a still

somewhat in question. Models hint at warmer air nosing in aloft

for a period late Friday/Friday night. This would lead to a

period of mixed precipitation if it materialized which will

impact snow amounts somewhat. Models do not have a handle on the

details of this so confidence is lower with respect to the mixed

precip. With freezing precip to deal with tonight and bone

chilling cold Wednesday night, headlines for Friday are best left

for a little later time.

[bud2380]

DVN already going with 3-5" during the day Friday

 

 

Friday

Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[james1976]

My grid has me at 100% chance of snow fri and fri nite. No mention of amounts or mixed precip yet.

[bud2380]

And I had to do a double take because DVN never does ranges (I wish they would), they always state an exact # of inches.  Weird.  I'm sure this will continue to change as models dry up and get warmer.  

[Grizzcoat]

^^ same here. I expect mine to change soon.

[bud2380]

GFS back to colder and snowier for eastern Iowa.  Hooray! Until the next run when it reverts.   

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ baby steps, but no upper air.

[SE Wisconsin]

NWS here is calling for snow on Friday with a gradually transition to all rain by Saturday.  Also mentions a northerly trend with this system.  What did we ever do to Mother Nature that has us being tortured by her over and over again!  

[SE Wisconsin]

It's ok everyone, winter always starts two weeks from now!

Seems we've been hearing that since early December!