Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[bud2380]

Hi-Res GFS

 

[bud2380]

Whoops that was the 12z, here is the 18z.

 

 

[earthandturf]

I just want some D**n snow to plow so I don't go broke...jeesh

[SE Wisconsin]

I just want some d**n snow to plow so I don't go broke...jeesh

Unfortunately, many people don't realize the economic impact of low snow winters - landscaping services that plow in winter, ski resorts, retailers that sell winter sports equipment, retailers that sell snow removal equipment and likely many more.  

[GDR]

Even if people understood what can they do!

[Grizzcoat]

The opposite is true for those that pay for snow removal. Iam sure they love snow less winters. Not me, even if I couldn't do my own but just saying.

[Grizzcoat]

TWC calling for 6-10" for mby. ha!!!

[james1976]

TWC calling for 6-10" for mby. ha!!!

Yeah they never over do anything lol

[St Paul Storm]

6-12” in the point for Friday and Friday night with heavy snow wording. Still snowing into early Saturday. Afternoon disco was a total snooze fest. Must have been the winter intern at the desk.

[james1976]

Local met has "several inches" in the forecast. Also 40mph wind Saturday. Blowing snow will be an issue. And how bout the cold coming? Single digit highs and teens BELOW zero next week.

[Tom]

6-12” in the point for Friday and Friday night with heavy snow wording. Still snowing into early Saturday. Afternoon disco was a total snooze fest. Must have been the winter intern at the desk.

I just chatted with an old friend of mine who moved up there and he’s been loving this winter. Told him how crappy ours has been down here so far. Def a bit jelly! Good luck and enjoy another dose of white Gold!

[BMT]

And I had to do a double take because DVN never does ranges (I wish they would), they always state an exact # of inches. Weird. I'm sure this will continue to change as models dry up and get warmer.

Yeah since when do they do ranges? Maybe cause it’s a couple days away yet?

[St Paul Storm]

I just chatted with an old friend of mine who moved up there and he’s been loving this winter. Told him how crappy ours has been down here so far. Def a bit jelly! Good luck and enjoy another dose of white Gold!

Thanks bud. It’s been a good winter so far overall. I hope this storm pans out. Would be nice though if we could get a storm that hits the majority of us. We’re way overdue for one of those.

[dubuque473]

DVN has me at 1-3” Friday then 100% chance of snow Friday night....no numbers yet for the night.

[bud2380]

Anyone have 18z Euro?

[GDR]

I heard a tad north

[jaster220]

Snow, then ice, then rain. If it was all going to mix like that, I wish it was the other way around.

 

Gee, sounds just like the thread title..hmmm imagine that. Doesn't say "Major Winter Storm" either like another one did. Don't know why Peeps were expecting to see 12+ over their place non-stop for (7) days in a row of model runs? That never happens in our part of the country anyways. 

 

Now for me, I'd be thrilled if the models were still showing me with 6+", but to some that's cause for "storm cancel" mode with 4 days to go until it's a wrap. As we've seen, nothing ever changes during a 4 day period of active developing dynamic weather - nothing. 

 

I'm not a fan of trends the past 24 hrs. Still, if I can snag a 3+" snowfall with cold coming on it's heels, it would be the biggest score here in 2 full months and I'd be stoked in an otherwise craptastically hostile pattern to date. 

 

Now back to following the weather and hoping for a reverse of the trends to a more favorable outcome for all. My highs are below freezing for the 2 days leading into the storm - that alone is a vast improvement over every event this cold season and is never a bad thing here. 

[East Dubzz]

Gee, sounds just like the thread title..hmmm imagine that. Doesn't say "Major Winter Storm" either like another one did. Don't know why Peeps were expecting to see 12+ over their place non-stop for (7) days in a row of model runs? That never happens in our part of the country anyways.

 

Now for me, I'd be thrilled if the models were still showing me with 6+", but to some that's cause for "storm cancel" mode with 4 days to go until it's a wrap. As we've seen, nothing ever changes during a 4 day period of active developing dynamic weather - nothing.

 

I'm not a fan of trends the past 24 hrs. Still, if I can snag a 3+" snowfall with cold coming on it's heels, it would be the biggest score here in 2 full months and I'd be stoked in an otherwise craptastically hostile pattern to date.

 

Now back to following the weather and hoping for a reverse of the trends to a more favorable outcome for all. My highs are below freezing for the 2 days leading into the storm - that alone is a vast improvement over every event this cold season and is never a bad thing here.

I was just saying I would rather it be rain, then ice, then snow, so we could end with snowfall and now rain on top of the snow that fell.

 

Not sure if all that was aimed at me, but I think if it was, you missed the point of what I said.

[Clinton]

Anyone have 18z Euro?

Here ya go.

[Clinton]

Here is what my office is saying for the weekend, basically they don't know.

 

Thursday - Saturday:

A cold airmass will settle into the area Thursday/Thursday night as
high pressure builds into the upper Midwest. Thursday morning lows
may be in the single digits across northern Missouri with teens
elsewhere. Thursday`s highs will be below freezing north of the
Missouri river with mid 30s and warmer south. Thursday night, as
temperatures fall below freezing across the forecast area, strong
warm and moist advection aloft will spread precipitation north
into the area. This sets the stage for a wintry mix/mess lifting
northward through the day Friday. For now, have only a few
hundredths of an inch of ice forecast with several inches of snow.
There could be more icing, particularly if temperatures are
cooler than forecast and the warm, moist advection aloft is
stronger. This is the route the NAM is going with significant
icing across much of the forecast area. The GFS accumulates less
ice and seems more reasonable at this time. The main uncertainties
with this time frame come from the wide range of temperatures
possible and just how strong the warm, moist advection is and the
resultant precipitation amounts. The good thing is that it looks
like we`ll warm up through the day so the main impacts will be
during the morning time frame across the KC area southward,
lasting into the afternoon for northern Missouri. The other aspect
of this system is the light snow accumulations possible. The
heaviest snow should be further north where the depth of the cold
air would keep any mixed precipitation to a minimum. Of course
further south, where there is the warm layer aloft leading to
mixed precipitation and/or freezing rain, snow amounts are much
less.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Uncertainty pertaining to the Winter System Saturday...

Great continuity has existed amongst the medium range model guidance
in advancing a deep Pacific trough across North America late
Thursday through Sunday. Consensus of the solutions suggests that a
surface low will track right through portions of the cwa. There has
been some question regarding the timing of the parent PV anomaly.
Stonybrook Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of 00Z GEFS suggested that
an overwhelming amount of the uncertainty amongst the members could
still be explained by east to west variance of the main PV anomaly.
This is on top of the d(prog)/dt trend that has existed recently
with the slowing of the GFS operation runs. Interesting to note that
even the EOF2 explained signal shows some uncertainty with the
magnitude of the MSLP over Lake Superior which is likely due to
timing of the very strong inverted surface trough and is another
indication of significant timing uncertainty. The overall pattern
setup and synoptic scale features suggest a very high amount of warm
air advection occurring in advance of the low due to both a +65 knot
low level jet in warm sector and also because of slab/layer lift
from hard cyclonic rotation. Expecting a lot of warm advection. A few
thoughts...1. Be mindful of Ptype algorithms as forecast soundings
suggest precipitation rates will again be very important for ground
truth. 2. Given the large wavelength of governing features and a
d(prog)/dt tendency in 12Z ECMWF for some broadening/less wrap up of
absolute vorticity expect warm air advection to be flashing rapidly
to the east. 3. Signs suggest that high rate accumulating snowfall
could fall in a period of 6 hours or less before turning over to a
mix or all rain. Exact timing, duration, and snowfall intensity
remains unknown at this time.

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM still bringing the sauce. C MN slam job, up towards Fargo. Nearly 12” for the metro and still snowing at the end of the run.

[GDR]

No show for most of iowa

[jaster220]

I was just saying I would rather it be rain, then ice, then snow, so we could end with snowfall and now rain on top of the snow that fell.

 

Not sure if all that was aimed at me, but I think if it was, you missed the point of what I said.

 

Not at all. I merely used that part of your post to make my point that this was always known to be a "mixed bag" event/system. It wasn't billed as the Big Dog Bliz we've all been dreaming about. As for the order of precip, yeah I'd prefer it was better but what can you do? As is, I'm looking at more of a "rain sandwich" with snow-mix-rain-snow-LES. Even with the poor trends and my southern locale my grid has a mere 7 hr period of potential rain. That could be a deluge or a few hrs of drizzle and 35F (tbd). It's not beyond the realm of possibility to get that 7 hr window of warmth closed somewhat or even eliminated altogether. That's where I'm at with this. Good luck to you out there! 

[Hawkeye]

No show for most of iowa

 

Something is screwy with the NAM's snowfall maps on Pivotal.  A solid band of good snow moves across the entire area, which should lead to fairly uniform snow amounts, but what Pivotal is showing is a strange series of alternating wet and dry bands.

[Hawkeye]

ICON continues to warm, now much more mix and less snow in Iowa.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

 

 

 

^^^ Looks a lot like the 18z Euro ENS

 

[snowstorm83]

ICON continues to warm, now much more mix and less snow in Iowa.

 

Yep ICON is now 99% sleet/zr for Lincoln when it was showing 8" of snow in the past. 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS going to being warmer 850's this run -- pretty sure.-- but seems heavier front end snow for W IA.

[Grizzcoat]

850 +0C now in MN

[Grizzcoat]

I'll take the GFS- this winter has proven you can't be picky, 9" for MBY.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011500&fh=90&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Iowawx]

The GFS actually has 4-7 inches of snow for CR/IC and areas north of I-80 in Iowa. No rain here, mostly snow with a little bit of sleet/freezing rain.

 

I am not writting this one off here. 

[Grizzcoat]

Probably more realistic.

 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

 

20200114 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

 

 

^^^ Looks a lot like the 18z Euro ENS

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-central-snow_72hr-9456800.png

There ya go buddy......   Awesome...feels good to be in the "Heavy Snow" zone .

[jaster220]

There ya go buddy......   Awesome...feels good to be in the "Heavy Snow" zone .

 

Oddly, it kinda follows the path of that Dec 1st storm and where the snow line would have been during mid-winter. Ofc, it can still fall apart but yeah, it's nice to be inside the bubble, even if it's only for a day 

[Niko]

Oddly, it kinda follows the path of that Dec 1st storm and where the snow line would have been during mid-winter. Ofc, it can still fall apart but yeah, it's nice to be inside the bubble, even if it's only for a day 

Absolutely....tbh, this is turning out to be a very interesting storm. It will get very engrossing during the next couple of days.  

[St Paul Storm]

During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern....

[East Dubzz]

I would take that amount of snowfall. That’s not the issue. Just don’t like the idea of rain/ice being mixed in as well.

[jaster220]

During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern....

 

GRR has put crap like that in my grid in recent winters. They need to go back to using "Light Snow" "Snow Showers" or "Flurries" like they used to do. Apparently that's too confusing or they think this hyper-reflex gen is just going to skip right to amounts so it doesn't matter. Idk but yeah, that's super lame

[Grizzcoat]

During the height of the storm.....no accumulation expected? Someone fire the intern....

 

That's absurd.

 

I've noticed the grids getting goofy lately. Just yesterday the updated PM grids has low of 25F in downtown DSM while just W where I reside it was 33F. WAA worked in over night and stratus was all ready present so there was going to be no clearing of the skies. I don't think these grids get proofread - at least not a majority of them. Forecaster just changes something on computer and it's fully automated. Fully automated stuff that needs more attention than if they did it the old school way. Much like automated weather sites that crap out just when weather starts to happen.