jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NOAA:Attention then turns to the well-advertised system slated to trackthrough this weekend. The parent longwave trough will move onshoreon the west coast Thursday afternoon and track steadily eastward,reaching the Great Lakes with possibly a slight negative tilt bySaturday night. With a midlevel ridge present over the westernCaribbean and SE CONUS, plenty of Gulf moisture will be directednorthward and fed into the system. Guidance has trended toward aslower consensus with the start of precip starting late Friday. Thistiming adds confidence that SE Michigan will experience a round of heavysnow Friday night. A respectable amount ofmoisture - pwats around 0.75 inches - will ride in on a 50 to 60 ktlow level jet and could lead to good snowfall rates and non-trivialaccumulations of snow across the area on Friday night. This puts my area respectively in the 7-10inch range. I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! Sure does look like it. We are looking good for a lot of snow. Tbh, I haven't seen the wording "Heavy Snow" in my forecast since the Vet Day major snowstorm, which gave my area ova a foot of snow..Geez! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 From DMX Haven't seen that in months! Hardly a dud in my book and would be welcomed sight for sore eyes Beautiful! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! You guys look almost locked in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! Trying to get excited, but waiting lol. Always worried about the dreaded drizzly dry slot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 From DMX Haven't seen that in months! Hardly a dud in my book and would be welcomed sight for sore eyes Go get ‘em buddy! Looking good at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 looking worse for Madison I think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The way the NAM looks is this lead wave will bring about 4-6 hours of snow to Iowa City/CR and then basically that's all we'll get. Gonna be tough to get more than a couple inches in that short of a time frame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 How many Towels have been thrown in on this storm? Models look better today but still expecting shifts up until late Thurs (for us to the east) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Cant believe this storm is still 2 days away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS North of every model now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season. Heavy snow wording in your forecast. During the day is the best. Friday: Snow, The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS North of every model now. Not that much different than the NAM right now though, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season. This is a good point. It doesn't appear to switch to rain until the nighttime, so that's a positive. I could live with that. Better than rain during the day and then snow overnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Not that much different than the NAM right now though, right? Same position, but a little stronger and more juiced than the NAM. EDIT: Forgot about the NAM, because I don't look at it much outside 2 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 6Z Euro spits out 7-10" for mby! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 15” Kuchera on the GFS is a bit overdone, but it’s been rock steady. I assume triggers get pulled on watches with afternoon package. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 the 0z GFS has an interesting snow shield...given the setup I think the euro looks more reasonable with a straight line on the southern edge as the waa moves north to a point from west to east, but what do I know? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 What a dream storm for the MSP area, run after run of 1 foot plus totals on just about every model. And no real reason to be worried about much of anything. Way too far north for warm air to intrude and since this is a WAA overrunning event, storm track is not significantly important for your area either. Just sit back and wait for the snow to fall. Down here definitely gonna be a 2-4" event almost entirely falling between noon and 6pm. Then a switchover to ice then rain. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX snowfall map has 6-8 for C & N Iowa with 4-6 for CR IC & DBQ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Cant catch a break here. Should of figured after last years fun winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Not expecting much for snow around here unless we can catch some before it changes to freezing rain. Our problem might be that the worst of the weather conditions will be in the morning during morning rush and school starts and busses. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX snowfall map has 6-8 for C & N Iowa with 4-6 for CR IC & DBQ DMX snow map also showed 8-12" last Friday for Cedar Rapids even when it was obvious this was turning into an ice event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 This is the DMX map for reference. I'd be happy with this, but I don't see 4-6". 2-4 at most, it's a quick hitter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS has 2m temps in the low 40's up through SMI saturday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX snowfall map has 6-8 for C & N Iowa with 4-6 for CR IC & DBQ I don't get the 6-8" dip down toward Des Moines. It should just be a fairly uniform 3-4" from Des Moines to CR. I can see Mason City getting 6+, but not Marshalltown. And Lamoni and Ottumwa getting 4-6"? I doubt it. The map just appears too generous for the central and south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX snowfall map has 6-8 for C & N Iowa with 4-6 for CR IC & DBQ yeah that 4-6 line is way too far south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Not expecting much for snow around here unless we can catch some before it changes to freezing rain. Our problem might be that the worst of the weather conditions will be in the morning during morning rush and school starts and busses.Looking the same here, we are suppose to have heavy frz rain Friday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS has been constantly putting a dome of lower accumulations exactly at my position for several runs. I think it has become sentient that I think it's garbage and is exacting revenge. But in all seriousness, it looks like I'm going to be right on the line between good snow and a giant mess. If we get too potential wins and both end up flops, I'm going to be pretty bummed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The Canadian is still colder, keeps it snow in Cedar Rapids. I don't expect this to be correct. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Agreed, not gonna happen like this. I full expect a quick hitting 2-4" and then a brief transition to ice before warmer air moves in and turns it to either drizzle or maybe borderline freezing drizzle. That's my official forecast. The Canadian is still colder, keeps it snow in Cedar Rapids. I don't expect this to be correct. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Could use one of those last minute shifts south that usually seem to occur when a storm is headed for this area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 UK continues to gradually lessen the qpf across the region. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think a quick 1-3 for most of Iowa Followed by some frozen precip For most of Iowa except For the northern tier counties. It’s just moving too fast and too much warm air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Probably be disappointing south of the 43rd parallel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Trying to get excited, but waiting lol. Always worried about the dreaded drizzly dry slot. Worried about what? A few hrs of drizzle and sub-40F won't do much damage at all, especially to a more dense snow as should be the flavor this time. WAA snow won't be some 18:1 LEFluff stuff. More like 10:1 or lower imo. Not sure your age or where you hail from originally, but these events were common place in SEMI latter half of the 80's. These scenarios actually make a much better foundation for all things winter sports related. Kinda like an early Dec outcome, just delayed until mid-Jan. Now, we just need things to hold for ~48 hrs lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Worried about what? A few hrs of drizzle and sub-40F won't do much damage at all, especially to a more dense snow as should be the flavor this time. WAA snow won't be some 18:1 LEFluff stuff. More like 10:1 or lower imo. Not sure your age or where you hail from originally, but these events were common place in SEMI latter half of the 80's. These scenarios actually make a much better foundation for all things winter sports related. Kinda like an early Dec outcome, just delayed until mid-Jan. Now, we just need things to hold for ~48 hrs lolI’m 39. I’m used to WSW only to wake up with a mix and severely disappointing snow totals. This will happen again 2” of slop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Wet, heavy snow followed by a little bit of drizzle or rain makes an absolutely fantastic snowmobile base. If we could get 8+ inches here and follow it up with around an eighth an inch of drizzle/mist it would be a great base that could deal with warmth very well. Once snowmobiles start packing down that sort of wet snow it turns almost into ice when it gets cool again, making the perfect base for snowmobile trails. Sadly I'm so pessimistic about this storm I think we get 4 inches and then it rains and washes 2 of it away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 What a dream storm for the MSP area, run after run of 1 foot plus totals on just about every model. And no real reason to be worried about much of anything. Way too far north for warm air to intrude and since this is a WAA overrunning event, storm track is not significantly important for your area either. Just sit back and wait for the snow to fall. Down here definitely gonna be a 2-4" event almost entirely falling between noon and 6pm. Then a switchover to ice then rain. With all the talk of how N and warm the GFS has become, this is very generous for SWMI and is just getting to the range where LES could give a boost. I expected to see more like 2" tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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