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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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NOAA:

Attention then turns to the well-advertised system slated to track

through this weekend. The parent longwave trough will move onshore

on the west coast Thursday afternoon and track steadily eastward,

reaching the Great Lakes with possibly a slight negative tilt by

Saturday night. With a midlevel ridge present over the western

Caribbean and SE CONUS, plenty of Gulf moisture will be directed

northward and fed into the system. Guidance has trended toward a

slower consensus with the start of precip starting late Friday. This

timing adds confidence that SE Michigan will experience a round of heavy

snow Friday night. A respectable amount of

moisture - pwats around 0.75 inches - will ride in on a 50 to 60 kt

low level jet and could lead to good snowfall rates and non-trivial

accumulations of snow across the area on Friday night.

 

This puts my area respectively in the 7-10inch range. :D

 

I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think things are trending positive for us amigo. Would be a great time for the GEM to score a win! 

Sure does look like it. We are looking good for a lot of snow.

 

Tbh, I haven't seen the wording "Heavy Snow" in my forecast since the Vet Day major snowstorm, which gave my area ova a foot of snow..Geez!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From DMX

 

 

Haven't seen that in months!  Hardly a dud in my book and would be welcomed sight for sore eyes  ;)

Beautiful! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season.

 

Heavy snow wording in your forecast. During the day is the best.

 

Friday: Snow, The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

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It appears 2-4" is the range we can expect here in Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  That's not major, but it'll be nice to finally see a few inches fall during daylight for the first time this season.

 

This is a good point. It doesn't appear to switch to rain until the nighttime, so that's a positive. I could live with that. Better than rain during the day and then snow overnight. 

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What a dream storm for the MSP area, run after run of 1 foot plus totals on just about every model.  And no real reason to be worried about much of anything.  Way too far north for warm air to intrude and since this is a WAA overrunning event, storm track is not significantly important for your area either.  Just sit back and wait for the snow to fall.  

 

Down here definitely gonna be a 2-4" event almost entirely falling between noon and 6pm.  Then a switchover to ice then rain.  

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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DMX snowfall map has 6-8 for C & N Iowa with 4-6 for CR IC & DBQ

 

I don't get the 6-8" dip down toward Des Moines.  It should just be a fairly uniform 3-4" from Des Moines to CR.

 

I can see Mason City getting 6+, but not Marshalltown.  And Lamoni and Ottumwa getting 4-6"?  I doubt it.  The map just appears too generous for the central and south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not expecting much for snow around here unless we can catch some before it changes to freezing rain.  Our problem might be that the worst of the weather conditions will be in the morning during morning rush and school starts and busses.

Looking the same here, we are suppose to have heavy frz rain Friday morning.

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GFS has been constantly putting a dome of lower accumulations exactly at my position for several runs. I think it has become sentient that I think it's garbage and is exacting revenge.

 

But in all seriousness, it looks like I'm going to be right on the line between good snow and a giant mess. If we get too potential wins and both end up flops, I'm going to be pretty bummed.

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The Canadian is still colder, keeps it snow in Cedar Rapids.  I don't expect this to be correct.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Agreed, not gonna happen like this. I full expect a quick hitting 2-4" and then a brief transition to ice before warmer air moves in and turns it to either drizzle or maybe borderline freezing drizzle.  That's my official forecast.  

 

 

The Canadian is still colder, keeps it snow in Cedar Rapids.  I don't expect this to be correct.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Trying to get excited, but waiting lol.  Always worried about the dreaded drizzly dry slot.  

 

Worried about what? A few hrs of drizzle and sub-40F won't do much damage at all, especially to a more dense snow as should be the flavor this time. WAA snow won't be some 18:1 LEFluff stuff. More like 10:1 or lower imo. Not sure your age or where you hail from originally, but these events were common place in SEMI latter half of the 80's. These scenarios actually make a much better foundation for all things winter sports related. Kinda like an early Dec outcome, just delayed until mid-Jan. Now, we just need things to hold for ~48 hrs lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Worried about what? A few hrs of drizzle and sub-40F won't do much damage at all, especially to a more dense snow as should be the flavor this time. WAA snow won't be some 18:1 LEFluff stuff. More like 10:1 or lower imo. Not sure your age or where you hail from originally, but these events were common place in SEMI latter half of the 80's. These scenarios actually make a much better foundation for all things winter sports related. Kinda like an early Dec outcome, just delayed until mid-Jan. Now, we just need things to hold for ~48 hrs lol

I’m 39. I’m used to WSW only to wake up with a mix and severely disappointing snow totals. This will happen again 2” of slop.

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Wet, heavy snow followed by a little bit of drizzle or rain makes an absolutely fantastic snowmobile base. If we could get 8+ inches here and follow it up with around an eighth an inch of drizzle/mist it would be a great base that could deal with warmth very well. Once snowmobiles start packing down that sort of wet snow it turns almost into ice when it gets cool again, making the perfect base for snowmobile trails.

 

Sadly I'm so pessimistic about this storm I think we get 4 inches and then it rains and washes 2 of it away.

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What a dream storm for the MSP area, run after run of 1 foot plus totals on just about every model.  And no real reason to be worried about much of anything.  Way too far north for warm air to intrude and since this is a WAA overrunning event, storm track is not significantly important for your area either.  Just sit back and wait for the snow to fall.  

 

Down here definitely gonna be a 2-4" event almost entirely falling between noon and 6pm.  Then a switchover to ice then rain.  

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

With all the talk of how N and warm the GFS has become, this is very generous for SWMI and is just getting to the range where LES could give a boost. I expected to see more like 2" tbh. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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