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We just got a WSW

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...Winter Storm Expected Thursday Night - Friday...

 

.A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread the

region from south to north as a strong storm system approaches the

region. This will impact the Friday morning commute across the

Kansas City area as snow transitions to sleet, freezing rain, and

then to rain by the early afternoon. Further north, cold air will

linger longer into the day and the transition to rain will occur

much later in the day.

 

MOZ003>008-013>017-021>025-030>033-038>040-045-046-160500-

/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0002.200117T0900Z-200118T0600Z/

Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-De Kalb-Daviess-

Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-

Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Pettis-

Cooper-

Including the cities of Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City,

Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City,

Greentop, Downing, Glenwood, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn,

Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan,

Green City, Kirksville, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton,

Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline,

Macon, La Plata, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,

Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,

Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Sedalia,

and Boonville

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to

two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35

mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast,

northwest and west central Missouri.

 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The transition to rain will occur much

later in the day, especially further north and east along the

Iowa and Missouri state line.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

BooRAH!  Great news buddy!  This one's coming together I think - cold gonna show up to play for once!  :)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

Posted Images

NAMGL_prec_snow_084.png.12f090a751dbdb3a

:D

 

And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. 

 

Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" 

 

A stronger event is looking possible for the weekend. For Holland

the GFS off of Bufkit shows the mixing height reaching into 40 to

50 knot winds Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

Thus a strong signal

for a gale event is shown.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just gotta add how bizarre this storm looks to be.  The precip field looks more like a march storm than January.   When all is said and done I feel like the snowfall map for minnesota is going to look more like abstract art than the typical elongate bullseye.  

 

I had to look up the exact date, but this storm reminds me of a past snowstorm....Jan 3-4 2009 I was in MSP for a Wild game, a Saturday night.  That night was forecast 8-12" snow for MSP, my place on the mn/ontario border looked to be out of the snowfall completely.  What ended up happening was a couple of inches of wet snow early for MSP followed my mist and light sleet.  When I got home sunday night I found it had snowed 12"+ at home.  

I feel like this storm is going to play out similar for a few locations, which ones?  Let me get a map and a dart board... 

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And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. 

 

Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" 

Get ready to get inundated from hvy snow bud!!!!!!

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IWX liking the LES signal..

 

all models hint at a prolonged lake effect set-up beginning Sunday and continuing through Tuesday.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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That's an interesting little area around Dubuque that gets less snow. Wonder what made that happen haha.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 34.84"

September rainfall total: 11.92"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (9/15)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3

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Nice step in the right direction for the GFS. Didn't really look at the run so I'm not sure what changed. 

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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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7-11” now in the point. MPX playing this well and not going with the inflated totals seen on some of the models. Haven’t paid attention at all until now but temps are below zero tonight -7F and then after the storm highs over the weekend are low single digits. Wind chill advisory for WC down to -25F.

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Just have this feeling that this will turn into almost carbon copy of last weekends storm and a lot of people are going to be disappointed.  Seems NWS here in SE WI has been trending downward with the snow totals, with a transition to rain by Saturday.  Folks up in the Northwoods of WI and MN should do well - again.  

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TWC is too heavy, too far south.  DMX's map is better than the earlier one, but it seems a bit odd to put Davenport and Mason City in the same range.

 

My expectation has not changed for Cedar Rapids.  I'm going with 2-4".

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's an interesting little area around Dubuque that gets less snow. Wonder what made that happen haha.

Must be my house.

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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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I honestly don’t know why anyone takes TWC seriously.

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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 34.84"

September rainfall total: 11.92"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (9/15)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3

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I honestly don’t know why anyone takes TWC seriously.

Members of the general public who don't know any better.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Schnack has 3-7" area wide. TWC with 5-8. Neither mentioned much about mixing issues. DMX however has knocked back totals a bit cuz of mixing which is interesting cuz they acted like it would be all snow last AFD. Regardless it looks like a solid hit.

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So crazy; usually I'm talking about the platte river being the dividing line of snow to the north or south for my area. Now it's the Missouri river with this storm; anywhere along and to the east of the Missouri River valley looks to score a decent storm out of this one. Good luck to those to the east, looks like another storm that misses me. 

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Looks like maybe 2” here then rain. Hoping LES materializes, but they don’t sound too confident outside the immediate lakeshore. Oh well.

 

Dude! You live right on the beach or something? Where are you getting such pathetic numbers? Last weekend's storm? Might want to refresh your browser  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18z Euro will make many down my way happy

1579435200-9gqgpHzENyk.png

 

Doesn't show much in MN for all the state to be under a Watch. What gives? How can that be accurate? My Mitt "homie" thinks we're getting nothing worth following, yet the Euro keeps showing twice as much snow as it's got in MN. Am I missing some asterisk or fine print at the bottom that says "snow fall over WMI is mostly for looks"  :huh:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Doesn't show much in MN for all the state to be under a Watch. What gives? How can that be accurate? My Mitt "homie" thinks we're getting nothing worth following, yet the Euro keeps showing twice as much snow as it's got in MN. Am I missing some asterisk or fine print at the bottom that says "snow fall over WMI is mostly for looks" :huh:

Most of MN is forecasted to get 6”+. That qualifies for a watch. But don’t forget that wind plays a factor into the watch decision. Gonna be possible blizzard conditions in part of MN that don’t get 6”. Hence, the watch was issued.

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:)  Snowy evening at Mackinaw..

 

20200115 9 pm Snowy night at the Big Mack.PNG

 

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Latest report.

 

Beauty!  Have fun up there bud, and remember to invite others to your party. I missed the last one, but I'm really hopeful for an invite this time..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z NAM. Not bad for a lot of peeps.

 

NAM's actually been looking strong for this, and globals have stopped the bleeding imo, maybe even come south a bit wrt GFS today. For those of us getting the warm burst/dry slot sandwich, I can't help but compare it with how a hurricane has that calm when the eye passes over just to get slammed with the other end of the eye-wall. The backside on this is gonna have bite like we've not been used to around here at least. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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