Tom Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 While most of us are enjoying a beautiful Winter day, is there more winter weather heading our way??? The models are dialing in on our next storm system that has several components with it that need to be ironed out. Looks like we will have a CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW states and as is it does so, 2 pieces of energy may phase into a cut-off low somewhere across the S Plains/MW states. This energy slowly "bowls" its way east underneath an expansive upper level ridge across S Canada. Who gets snow??? Rain or Mix??? Let's discuss... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Much of that map for Nebraska is from earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 12z EC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Much of that map for Nebraska is from earlier Looks like its Wednesday (the 22nd). Rain to snow with marginal temps, NAM is similar. GFS is warmer and stays rain. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 12z EPS mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Ratios higher than 10:1 with sfc temps in the 30s? Ehhhh, I don't quite know about that one. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Like where I'm sitting right now but for some reason thinking this goes more SE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 12z ICON has an interesting take on it. A phase slightly west of the Appalachains would put us in business in MI. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Oh boy, another rainstorm. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Oh boy, another rainstorm. I'm not sure how this is a bowling ball wrt snow. Just going by snow maps posted, it does not look that way at all. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 If only those BN temps dates matched the precip dates. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 If it actually rains here 24 hours after being below zero that would be the most Winter 2019-20 thing ever. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 The latest Euro takes it well south of my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 18z GEFS continue to look a lot different than the operational model... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 18z GEFS continue to look a lot different than the operational model... Whoa, that is different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 4 19, 8 and 9 pleaase 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z Canadian... 06z NAM...starting to come in range and it's been showing a colder solution out in the Plains/S MW compared to the warm GFS. Something to consider as this departing arctic high still has some residual cold left behind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z Euro...still advertising a widespread 4-6" WWA worthy event??? The neat thing about this system is it will be a slow mover and a lot of the snow that does fall it will be during the daytime hours on both Thu & Fri. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Sure, the snow maps don't necessarily illustrate a "true" bowling ball system, but at 500mb you can clearly see a cut-off low "bowl" its way east underneath an expansive upper level ridge across Canada. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z GEFS... A clear trend is showing up on the individual GEFS ensemble members and that is more snowier solutions for those that are close to the track of the ULL feature. This always happens in a more typical Spring-like regime as this pattern is anything but a typical mid-winter pattern in the heart of the coldest part of the season. With that being said, I would especially start to see more snow out of this than what the GFS op is showing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z EPS mean starting to trend towards a more widespread snowier solution along with the Euro control. The Euro control map is only thru Friday 6:00pm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 06z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 SREF mean on the early part of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 00z EPS mean starting to trend towards a more widespread snowier solution along with the Euro control. The Euro control map is only thru Friday 6:00pm.It would be wild if the CMC had this storm right the whole time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 6z EC goes bonkers on KC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 It would be wild if the CMC had this storm right the whole time.I'm hoping so, looks like best case scenario right now for metro Detroit, of the operational runs, that is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Pretty decent agreement overall I'd say 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 FWIW, the Ukie looks a lot like the ICON. Gulf low riding up the spine of the Appalachains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Local Mets have shifted away from rain snow and dropped the temps. Interesting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Clinton, Sign me up for that 06z EURO! What a party out at Arrowhead yesterday. We finally did it, the Chiefs are off to the SB. Mahomes is amazing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Clinton, Sign me up for that 06z EURO! What a party out at Arrowhead yesterday. We finally did it, the Chiefs are off to the SB. Mahomes is amazing.I'll take that also. What a game yesterday I didn't know if it would ever happen. We have the best player in football! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 FWIW, the Ukie looks a lot like the ICON. Gulf low riding up the spine of the Appalachains.That should be a sweet track. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 NOAA: Nice write-up Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturdayas this system passes just south of the area and mean northernstream upper troughing shifts into the region. Based on model consensus inthe track of this system, modest precipitation amounts lookplausible with this system, especially in the Friday night toSaturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and somedegree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, butits relative performance this winter does lend this solution somecredence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, themore widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly,given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, thecloser the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the GreatLakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all snow.A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would removeboth of these "elements" to a large degree. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 So all the locals lowered their temps and oax decided to up their temps. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z NAM looking pretty good for widespread 3-6 across the region. It's odd how the op GFS continues to show mostly rain while other models are all snow. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z NAM looking pretty good for widespread 3-6 across the region.Slow mover which would be a nice change of pace to the zippers we've been having. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I'm going to order up #16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 DVN is not excited about this system. "Over the entire 48 to 72 hours span, snowfall amounts do not lookto be all that substantial as some of the QPF will be just rain as wellas a wet snow melting with highs in the mid and upper 30s." DMX is also talking rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 DMX not very excited yet: Both GFS and Euro have a surface low consolidating and strengtheningon Thursday night into Friday. GFS is notably farther north andeffects Iowa to a greater extent than its counterpart. Itssolution would keep the threat for light to moderate rain/snow onFriday for much of central Iowa while the Euro is overall drieracross the state with only very light precipitation occurring assubsidence rapidly takes over during the day. Overall, confidenceon this system from Thursday into Friday remains quite low withimpacts difficult to determine. It certainly bears watching overthe next few model cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The 12z GFS has extremely light precip over Iowa from Wednesday afternoon until Saturday morning. About 60 consecutive hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.