Jump to content

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

Recommended Posts

While most of us are enjoying a beautiful Winter day, is there more winter weather heading our way???  The models are dialing in on our next storm system that has several components with it that need to be ironed out.  Looks like we will have a CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW states and as is it does so, 2 pieces of energy may phase into a cut-off low somewhere across the S Plains/MW states.  This energy slowly "bowls" its way east underneath an expansive upper level ridge across S Canada.  Who gets snow???  Rain or Mix???

 

Let's discuss...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh boy, another rainstorm. 

 

 

I'm not sure how this is a bowling ball wrt snow. Just going by snow maps posted, it does not look that way at all.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If only those BN temps dates matched the precip dates. 

 

20200117 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest Euro takes it well south of my area.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Canadian...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

06z NAM...starting to come in range and it's been showing a colder solution out in the Plains/S MW compared to the warm GFS.  Something to consider as this departing arctic high still has some residual cold left behind.

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_168.png

 

 

A clear trend is showing up on the individual GEFS ensemble members and that is more snowier solutions for those that are close to the track of the ULL feature.  This always happens in a more typical Spring-like regime as this pattern is anything but a typical mid-winter pattern in the heart of the coldest part of the season.  With that being said, I would especially start to see more snow out of this than what the GFS op is showing.

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_150.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clinton,

 

Sign me up for that 06z EURO!

 

What a party out at Arrowhead yesterday. We finally did it, the Chiefs are off to the SB. Mahomes is amazing.

I'll take that also.  What a game yesterday I didn't know if it would ever happen.  We have the best player in football!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the Ukie looks a lot like the ICON. Gulf low riding up the spine of the Appalachains.

That should be a sweet track.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA:
 

Nice write-up

 

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday
as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern
stream upper troughing shifts into the region. Based on model consensus in
the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look
plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to
Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some
degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but
its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some
credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the
more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly,
given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the
closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great
Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all snow.

A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove
both of these "elements" to a large degree.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM looking pretty good for widespread 3-6 across the region.  It's odd how the op GFS continues to show mostly rain while other models are all snow.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN is not excited about this system.  

 

"Over the entire 48 to 72 hours span, snowfall amounts do not look

to be all that substantial as some of the QPF will be just rain as well

as a wet snow melting with highs in the mid and upper 30s."

 

DMX is also talking rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DMX not very excited yet:

 

Both GFS and Euro have a surface low consolidating and strengthening

on Thursday night into Friday. GFS is notably farther north and

effects Iowa to a greater extent than its counterpart. Its

solution would keep the threat for light to moderate rain/snow on

Friday for much of central Iowa while the Euro is overall drier

across the state with only very light precipitation occurring as

subsidence rapidly takes over during the day. Overall, confidence

on this system from Thursday into Friday remains quite low with

impacts difficult to determine. It certainly bears watching over

the next few model cycles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...