Jump to content

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

Recommended Posts

NIce explanation from Green Bay this morning. As long as we can avoid any rain i'm happy. Snowmobile trails are starting to shape up around here.

 

 

 

An upper-level ridge overhead and a surface high pressure system,
to the south of the region, will track eastward Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. This will put Wisconsin under a mean
southwest flow, ahead of a shortwave, helping to allow warmer air
and Gulf moisture to advect north. This moisture is expected to
bring some precipitation to the region Wednesday morning into
Thursday as the shortwave becomes nearly stationary over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. However, the thermal profiles remain a little
questionable with the possibility for freezing rain or freezing
drizzle to mix in with snow, mainly over central and north-central
Wisconsin. Although there are some model differences with the
amount and location of heaviest QPF, most locations could see
between 1 to 3 inches of snow by Thursday morning. While this
shortwave/trough remains nearly stationary into Thursday, keeping
snow chances in the forecast, two upper-level pieces of energy,
one north and one south, will be on deck to potentially impact the
region. Model guidance indicates the southern piece of energy
will be the stronger of the two and set up over Kansas/Missouri
before moving east/northeast into Friday morning. At the same
time, the northern piece of energy will move into the Northern
Plains Thursday night before possibly phasing with the southern
piece of energy sometime on Friday. If these pieces of energy
phase, Wisconsin could see a large amount of precipitation, mainly
in the form of snow with some rain mixed in on Friday. If they
remain as separate pieces, Wisconsin could see much less
precipitation from the northern piece of energy. Since the models
continue to show differences with how this will play out for
Wisconsin, it is likely more changes will occur.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12z GFS has extremely light precip over Iowa from Wednesday afternoon until Saturday morning.  About 60 consecutive hours.  

 

Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining.

 

Yeah, it is not impressive at all in terms of snow amounts.  Looks like a prolonged period of drizzle and flurries mostly.  Maybe occasional showers, but yeah wouldn't accumulate much if at all.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Ukie really honing in on the southern wave coming straight up out of the GOM and getting pulled due north from the northern energy.  The southern wave tracks up the apps into the OHV and phasing with the northern energy right over S IL/IN/OH.  Based on the 2 m temps, anyone West/North of the SLP track seems to remain cold enough to support snow.  That is one sweet looking pivot over the Lower Lakes region.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm seems really odd, and i'm not sure what to make of it.  Definitely looking like a prolonged event with several weaker shots of precip before possibly a stronger system towards the end of the week.  I'm guessing the canadian showing 5+" over my area is going to end up overdone.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

  • Like 3

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

I agree, the GFS has horrible physics in their model and I expect to see the snowier solutions pan out.  Just look at most of the GEFS members showing a lot of snowy solutions.  I think the op is out to lunch in terms of precip type.

 

12z Euro coming in colder and snowier....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

total through 102 on Euro--

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020012012&fh=102&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

I agree- on odd system, but so was the last one.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

 

I don't disagree it will be snow, i'm just concerned with several models showing 0.1" qpf over 6 hours with temps right at 32 degrees, it seems like that will essentially melt and not really accumulate.  Euro showing similar to the GFS just several degrees colder and therefore snowy instead of rain.  

Euro shows about .6" qpf total, but the most in any 6 hour period for IC/CR is .15" and has the temp at exactly 32 degrees for 3 days straight.  That's just not a great setup for significant accumulations.  That's why I think if you look at the total model output it won't matchup to what we actually see on the ground.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trends today from the Ukie/GGEM/EURO all pointing towards a more developed and juicier storm.  Some places may see it snow for 36+ hours.  The signal is there for a LONG duration snow event for a lot of members on here,  I don't see why this system can stack up in the snow dept.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The euro keeps the 850 temp solidly below freezing throughout the event, and keeps Cedar Rapids around freezing at the surface.  Hopefully, the surface temp will not over-perform.  The Euro may have good totals overall, but this is a 2+ day event with generally pretty low rates.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In terms of temps, the Euro is showing low 30's for most of the duration of the event across N IL (Max temp 34F).  The snow that falls will likely stick to everything aiding in a "snow globe" festive look.  #winterwonderland

 

Widespread 6-10"

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't imagine snow ratios would average higher than 10:1 during this event, so I would throw out the Kuchera map.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. 

 

I am not sure which model I believe.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. 

 

I am not sure which model I believe.

Doubtful that a WSW gets issued but moreso a WWA due to the light/moderate snowfall rates over a very long duration event.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Kuchera maps are actually showing an average right around 9:1-10:1

 

I was just focusing on my area.  The 10:1 map has 6-8" while the Kuchera you posted has 8-10".

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if this long-duration, low-rate snow has trouble piling up, it will be nice to experience two days of light snow.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm just trying to envision what this would look like on radar with such light precip for such a long time.  We just don't often get that around here.  Everyone once in awhile.  I can recall a time around 1999 or 2000 over Christmas break it snowed for 24 hours straight and it was so light it only amounted to 6" over 24 hours, but was still pretty cool.  Maybe we get something similar here?  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA:

 

The latest runs of extended range models continue with the
preference of a closed solution on the mid Mississippi valley system
heading into the weekend. There also remain a few options on the
track of that system as it moves east of the Mississippi river
Friday night and Saturday. The stalled front/trough to our north
washes out in the meantime which allows some colder air to leak
southward leaning precipitation type toward accumulating snow. The question then
is if the closed low slides eastward more along the Ohio valley
which would allow the north flank of the precipitation shield to
reach SE Michigan, or if it takes a farther south track leaving just
a weak mid level deformation pattern over the central Great Lakes
through Saturday. A position about over the Ohio/West Virginia
border is favored in the latest deterministic runs by 12Z Saturday
which brings the northern fringe of the precipitation shield up to
about the M-59 corridor during Saturday. This is slightly faster and
farther south than the GEFS and NAEFS means and includes a northward
trend in the 12Z ECMWF track compared to its 00Z run.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...