Snowshoe Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 NIce explanation from Green Bay this morning. As long as we can avoid any rain i'm happy. Snowmobile trails are starting to shape up around here. An upper-level ridge overhead and a surface high pressure system,to the south of the region, will track eastward Tuesday nightinto Wednesday morning. This will put Wisconsin under a meansouthwest flow, ahead of a shortwave, helping to allow warmer airand Gulf moisture to advect north. This moisture is expected tobring some precipitation to the region Wednesday morning intoThursday as the shortwave becomes nearly stationary over the UpperMississippi Valley. However, the thermal profiles remain a littlequestionable with the possibility for freezing rain or freezingdrizzle to mix in with snow, mainly over central and north-centralWisconsin. Although there are some model differences with theamount and location of heaviest QPF, most locations could seebetween 1 to 3 inches of snow by Thursday morning. While thisshortwave/trough remains nearly stationary into Thursday, keepingsnow chances in the forecast, two upper-level pieces of energy,one north and one south, will be on deck to potentially impact theregion. Model guidance indicates the southern piece of energywill be the stronger of the two and set up over Kansas/Missouribefore moving east/northeast into Friday morning. At the sametime, the northern piece of energy will move into the NorthernPlains Thursday night before possibly phasing with the southernpiece of energy sometime on Friday. If these pieces of energyphase, Wisconsin could see a large amount of precipitation, mainlyin the form of snow with some rain mixed in on Friday. If theyremain as separate pieces, Wisconsin could see much lessprecipitation from the northern piece of energy. Since the modelscontinue to show differences with how this will play out forWisconsin, it is likely more changes will occur. 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z GFS getting snowier at least down my way 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Long duration snow event starting to take shape...first time this winter. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The 12z GFS has extremely light precip over Iowa from Wednesday afternoon until Saturday morning. About 60 consecutive hours. Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining. Yeah, it is not impressive at all in terms of snow amounts. Looks like a prolonged period of drizzle and flurries mostly. Maybe occasional showers, but yeah wouldn't accumulate much if at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Another potential phase job where at least one operational model shows a nice storm while others show nothing...all right up to 18 hours before the event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Here's the 12z UK precip total. I don't know what this model has for 850 temps. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z GFS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z Ukie really honing in on the southern wave coming straight up out of the GOM and getting pulled due north from the northern energy. The southern wave tracks up the apps into the OHV and phasing with the northern energy right over S IL/IN/OH. Based on the 2 m temps, anyone West/North of the SLP track seems to remain cold enough to support snow. That is one sweet looking pivot over the Lower Lakes region. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 This storm seems really odd, and i'm not sure what to make of it. Definitely looking like a prolonged event with several weaker shots of precip before possibly a stronger system towards the end of the week. I'm guessing the canadian showing 5+" over my area is going to end up overdone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Can I get the number 3 with a Large Pepsi please!!I'm going to order up #16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z Canadian...these Kuchera ratios are actually lower than the 10:1 snow maps which suggest a wetter variety of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one). 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).I agree, the GFS has horrible physics in their model and I expect to see the snowier solutions pan out. Just look at most of the GEFS members showing a lot of snowy solutions. I think the op is out to lunch in terms of precip type. 12z Euro coming in colder and snowier.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 total through 102 on Euro-- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020012012&fh=102&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= I agree- on odd system, but so was the last one. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12z Euro hammers E NE/IA/KC/N MO...still snowing... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one). I don't disagree it will be snow, i'm just concerned with several models showing 0.1" qpf over 6 hours with temps right at 32 degrees, it seems like that will essentially melt and not really accumulate. Euro showing similar to the GFS just several degrees colder and therefore snowy instead of rain. Euro shows about .6" qpf total, but the most in any 6 hour period for IC/CR is .15" and has the temp at exactly 32 degrees for 3 days straight. That's just not a great setup for significant accumulations. That's why I think if you look at the total model output it won't matchup to what we actually see on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Trends today from the Ukie/GGEM/EURO all pointing towards a more developed and juicier storm. Some places may see it snow for 36+ hours. The signal is there for a LONG duration snow event for a lot of members on here, I don't see why this system can stack up in the snow dept. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The euro keeps the 850 temp solidly below freezing throughout the event, and keeps Cedar Rapids around freezing at the surface. Hopefully, the surface temp will not over-perform. The Euro may have good totals overall, but this is a 2+ day event with generally pretty low rates. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 In terms of temps, the Euro is showing low 30's for most of the duration of the event across N IL (Max temp 34F). The snow that falls will likely stick to everything aiding in a "snow globe" festive look. #winterwonderland Widespread 6-10" 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro Kuchera 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I can't imagine snow ratios would average higher than 10:1 during this event, so I would throw out the Kuchera map. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I can't imagine snow ratios would average higher than 10:1 during this event, so I would throw out the Kuchera map.The Kuchera maps are actually showing an average right around 9:1-10:1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro is juiced up. That snow will stick to everything 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. I am not sure which model I believe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. I am not sure which model I believe.Doubtful that a WSW gets issued but moreso a WWA due to the light/moderate snowfall rates over a very long duration event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The Kuchera maps are actually showing an average right around 9:1-10:1 I was just focusing on my area. The 10:1 map has 6-8" while the Kuchera you posted has 8-10". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Isnt the GFS the only model showing a weaker setup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 The euro wants to paint E NE red I'm good with that. But temps are all over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 12Z EC and EPS mean 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 Even if this long-duration, low-rate snow has trouble piling up, it will be nice to experience two days of light snow. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 I'm just trying to envision what this would look like on radar with such light precip for such a long time. We just don't often get that around here. Everyone once in awhile. I can recall a time around 1999 or 2000 over Christmas break it snowed for 24 hours straight and it was so light it only amounted to 6" over 24 hours, but was still pretty cool. Maybe we get something similar here? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 18z NAM, storm not over either 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 18Z Icon showing 48hr+ of continuous snow. Low meandering all over the place. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 This afternoon, DMX and DVN are at least more open to a few inches of snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 NOAA: The latest runs of extended range models continue with thepreference of a closed solution on the mid Mississippi valley systemheading into the weekend. There also remain a few options on thetrack of that system as it moves east of the Mississippi riverFriday night and Saturday. The stalled front/trough to our northwashes out in the meantime which allows some colder air to leaksouthward leaning precipitation type toward accumulating snow. The question thenis if the closed low slides eastward more along the Ohio valleywhich would allow the north flank of the precipitation shield toreach SE Michigan, or if it takes a farther south track leaving justa weak mid level deformation pattern over the central Great Lakesthrough Saturday. A position about over the Ohio/West Virginiaborder is favored in the latest deterministic runs by 12Z Saturdaywhich brings the northern fringe of the precipitation shield up toabout the M-59 corridor during Saturday. This is slightly faster andfarther south than the GEFS and NAEFS means and includes a northwardtrend in the 12Z ECMWF track compared to its 00Z run. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2020 Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 GFS continues to show precip for 2+ days straight, but switches back and forth from snow to rain to snow. Still much warmer than all other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 18z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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