Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The GEFS is so much better than the opGFS. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looking like it wants to avoid SCMI. Not sure if its just too warm, or loses its mojo because its transferring to a coastal? Some of the Ensembles show snow here, but overall not too promising so far. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Oh now there's a real teaser at the West end of Lake Ontario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z Euro has the storm just spinning overhead for 24 hours. Here is accum. through hr 90. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z EC captures the whole storm. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z Euro has the storm just spinning overhead for 24 hours. Here is accum. through hr 90.This is your storm bud. Hope ya get a ton of snow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 This is your storm bud. Hope ya get a ton of snow. Thanks, I will be riding a fine line as far as thermals go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 21z SREF mean through hr 87 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Clinton, Take our current air mass in place, take Wednesday-Friday’s moisture feed and then it’s easy....SNOW! Instead, the cold air retreats and thermals become iffy. I’m still hopeful we can score a few snowy periods later this week. Had a nice .5-1 inch snow across the city today. Currently 6 degrees at my house. It’s full blown winter outside right now. 2-3 inches in parts of MO today with that small, but potent disturbance. Thanks for the snow maps, always appreciate them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Maybe I’m not out of the game yet. 0z NAM brings the secondary wave farther west this run and even hits Central Nebraska. We’ll see how this plays out the next couple of days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Maybe I’m not out of the game yet. 0z NAM brings the secondary wave farther west this run and even hits Central Nebraska. We’ll see how this plays out the next couple of days.Strange to see the NAM, ECMWF and GFS ENS in favor of good snows around here while the SREF and GFS vehemently refuse to latch on. Strange storm for sure 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z NAM is juicy for many through hr 84. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Strange to see the NAM, ECMWF and GFS ENS in favor of good snows around here while the SREF and GFS vehemently refuse to latch on. Strange storm for sureYou’re right. GFS is basically little or nothing for many on here and much warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 I still can’t figure out which piece of energy will be the “strong” piece with this storm. If any. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 OAX staying with the gfs. Saying mostly rain snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z opGFS still not budging from its mostly-rain event. One problem is the GFS, on Friday morning, has the surface low over southeast Iowa, which keeps milder air pulled up into my area. The Euro, meanwhile, has the low over southern Illinois. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Hard to make a forecast when models are this different from each other. NAM vs GFS are not even close to each other. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Comparing the GFS and NAM temperatures..... the GFS is pulling a significant plume of >0º air northward into the system at 950 mb, and it keeps the temp just above freezing down to the surface. The NAM has nothing like that. It shows 950 mb temps 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wasnt the GFS kinda out to lunch on the last one? The Nam and Euro were much closer to reality I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z Canadian 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Gfs actually did okay last storm. Closer to the event it hasn't been bad that's what makes me nervous. Wpc also ain't on board but who knows this could be out of left field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z Euro 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z Euro is about as best of a Midwest "spread the wealth" you'll see....KC/LNK/Quad Cities smash job...in terms of precip type for NE IL, it switches over to a bit of RN/Mix on Fri afternoon as a surge of WAA comes up and wraps around into the system. Temps aloft cool back down at night allowing a changeover back to SN. These finer details will be ironed out. As for the 00z Ukie, it looked nearly identical to the Euro but maybe a bit more juicier overall. FWIW, both models are seeing the potential for Lehs into SE WI/NE IL even with marginal temps aloft which is interesting. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 00z EPS mean...I noticed it shifted the heaviest snows a bit farther E/SE...Euro Control smashes KC to Chicago... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 SREF beginning to buy in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 6z Euro WWA coming soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 DMX is leaning toward 3-5" for much of IA for the entire event and no headlines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Mkx saying 1-3 with mix Friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 E NE Jim flowers is posting on the storm so I'm guessing he is favoring a snowier solution. No video yet. Edit: Based on his post up to .25 of freezing rain then up to 3 inches of wet snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 6z EC and Mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Euro ensembles 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The NAM has really shifted the main 500 mb low northward. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Here's the 12z NAM. It is still snowing at 84 hours. This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night. That would be pretty cool. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Here's the 12z NAM. It is still snowing at 84 hours. This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night. That would be pretty cool. Models seem to be coming in to agreement (except the GFS) that the bullseye of this storm will be NW MO, E. Neb, and SW Iowa. Also has a area of heavy snow from Cedar Rapids over to Chicago and Wisc. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 3k NAM through 6pm Thursday and still snowing for much of the area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wow a big jump with the ICON model for mby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z ICON 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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