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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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Looking like it wants to avoid SCMI. Not sure if its just too warm, or loses its mojo because its transferring to a coastal? Some of the Ensembles show snow here, but overall not too promising so far.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z Euro has the storm just spinning overhead for 24 hours.  Here is accum. through hr 90.

1579867200-Rh8gdt10bag.png

1579867200-hEyoKbp3hKU.png

This is your storm bud. Hope ya get a ton of snow. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton,

 

Take our current air mass in place, take Wednesday-Friday’s moisture feed and then it’s easy....SNOW! Instead, the cold air retreats and thermals become iffy. I’m still hopeful we can score a few snowy periods later this week.

 

Had a nice .5-1 inch snow across the city today. Currently 6 degrees at my house. It’s full blown winter outside right now. 2-3 inches in parts of MO today with that small, but potent disturbance.

 

Thanks for the snow maps, always appreciate them.

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Maybe I’m not out of the game yet. 0z NAM brings the secondary wave farther west this run and even hits Central Nebraska. We’ll see how this plays out the next couple of days.

Strange to see the NAM, ECMWF and GFS ENS in favor of good snows around here while the SREF and GFS vehemently refuse to latch on. Strange storm for sure

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00z opGFS still not budging from its mostly-rain event.

 

One problem is the GFS, on Friday morning, has the surface low over southeast Iowa, which keeps milder air pulled up into my area.  The Euro, meanwhile, has the low over southern Illinois.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Comparing the GFS and NAM temperatures..... the GFS is pulling a significant plume of >0º air northward into the system at 950 mb, and it keeps the temp just above freezing down to the surface.  The NAM has nothing like that.  It shows 950 mb temps

 

925th.us_mw.png

925th.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro is about as best of a Midwest "spread the wealth" you'll see....KC/LNK/Quad Cities smash job...in terms of precip type for NE IL, it switches over to a bit of RN/Mix on Fri afternoon as a surge of WAA comes up and wraps around into the system.  Temps aloft cool back down at night allowing a changeover back to SN.  These finer details will be ironed out. 

 

As for the 00z Ukie, it looked nearly identical to the Euro but maybe a bit more juicier overall.  FWIW, both models are seeing the potential for Lehs into SE WI/NE IL even with marginal temps aloft which is interesting.

 

 

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Here's the 12z NAM.  It is still snowing at 84 hours.  This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night.  That would be pretty cool.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here's the 12z NAM.  It is still snowing at 84 hours.  This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night.  That would be pretty cool.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Models seem to be coming in to agreement (except the GFS) that the bullseye of this storm will be NW MO, E. Neb, and SW Iowa.  Also has a area of heavy snow from Cedar Rapids over to Chicago and Wisc.

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