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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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NOAA:

The aforementioned upper trough over the central CONUS evolves into
an upper low pressure system late Thursday into Friday as Pacific
shortwave energy rounds western NOAM upper ridging and digs into the
plains. This system translates eastward through the southern Ohio
Valley Friday into Saturday. ECMWF has remained far enough north to
impact the area with deformation from this system with other 00z
models also continuing to support this scenario. While the system is
not tied into the northern stream, residual cold air does settle
south through the region late this weak as the stalled frontal
boundary positioned just northwest of the region washes out with
time. That said, trends suggest that a
fair amount of the precipitation will fall as snow, and with a
slightly faster start time late Friday into Friday night, diurnal
considerations would support a better chance of some snow accumulations.

This will be aided by the at least modest precipitation rates that
look more likely now that model consensus suggests the area of
deformation will impact the region for a fairly extended period from
Friday evening into Saturday morning.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wednesday night through Friday:

 

The break in precipitation may not last all that long as another

trough and another round of PVA brings another shot at precip

Wednesday night. Temps manage mid-30s thanks to continued WAA and

in direct defiance of the overcast skies. The associated cold

front will pull in enough cooler air that initial precip will

fall as snow. The wave cuts off from the main flow but where it

settles in is still up in the air. The GFS`s northern placement of

the low and associated deformation zone gives us the best chance

of precip, but it seems the outlier at this time. Have kept 30-40%

POPs over the eastern half of the CWA through Friday morning, but

this seems likelier to be reduced vs increased. As it stands now,

this additional occasional snow from Wednesday night into mid-day

Friday may bring another 1-2". Again, with temps near freezing at

times, this snow may not stick around long.

 

Saturday through Monday: Warmer and drier conditions are expected

with southwesterly flow directed by some upper level ridging. We may

miss the chance of mid-week precip as the next system looks to pass

too far south.

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Didn't even know this snow was a possibility, but I am very much on board with this. My hope with longer lasting systems is always that they can over-perform. 

I find that there is always room for an overachiever due to the slow moving/pivoting bands.  You can see the models are starting to hone in on these features.  We haven't had one of these closed ULL's in some time so its going to be fun watching this system on radar.

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Hopefully, this will be a diurnal event, unlike the other snowstorm last weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Canadian

 

This run cut the Chicago area down by quite a bit.  This appears to be the nature of this system.  While it will be pretty widespread in general, specific locations still rise/fall a fair amount based on each run's depiction of the various spokes of energy.

 

gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Heck of a battle shaping up between the GFS and every other model. Let's see if the Euro matches up with the Nam and if so then we might be able to discount the GFS.

 

I honestly don't think it's even a battle.  There is clearly something wrong with the low level thermals of the GFS.  Every single other model is showing it cold enough throughout the column for snow, but the GFS is maintaining above 0 at 925mb on down to the surface.  Toss out the GFS for this storm.  

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FWIW, the GFS model has officially dropped to 4th place and the Canadian has taken over the 3rd spot. Not a good day for NCEP and their new GFS model.

I trust you. Wanna see the data.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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There's no way anyone gets 8-12" of snow out of this like the Euro, Canadian, and NAM are showing. Not a strong system at all. All of the models are showing the low staying above 1010 MB. Only thing that it has going for it is it's slow movement. Otherwise marginal temps, rates etc will hurt amounts.

I believe It really has more to do so with the qpf output and longevity more so than the strength of the system. Not saying that any one location will get 12" but its not out of the question.

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You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post.

Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z UK...  This run has the best precip from the main upper energy kinda pivoting around the middle of Iowa.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012112_120_5660_220.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking....

 

What you've been doing is posting the link to the website url.  There's nothing wrong with that.  However, to directly show the image in your post (if that's what you want to do) you want to right click on the image itself and "copy image address".  Then click on the square image icon (directly under the emoji icon) and paste the image url.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Any idea on what kind of precip?? 

 

While I don't have access to the 950 mb temp, the UK surface temp never rises above freezing in Cedar Rapids, which likely means it's all or nearly-all snow.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6z EC and Mean

1580104800-1UDUAkePPw8.png

1580104800-tp2vFA4eTU4.png

 

Euro, GEM, ICON all have/are trending much better around here. I haven't been invested in this until now, but that may be changing with some models getting me back in the game  ;)  Especially like that latest UK looking wetter (not mostly liquid but snow here hopefully). 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_120.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_132.png

 

Hawkeye beat me to the comment, but was going to say how stubborn GEFS has been. Not budging. Keeps the sig snowfall west and refuses to baby-step it eastward like other models seem to be doing. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My enthusiasm last night was short lived.  Another miss.  Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events.  Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop.  

 

Sadly CNEWx, you're one of our regular posters living on the edges of the Sub and I believe in a different "zone" from most of us. When you do well, we rarely join you, and vice-versa

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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