Niko Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 NOAA:The aforementioned upper trough over the central CONUS evolves intoan upper low pressure system late Thursday into Friday as Pacificshortwave energy rounds western NOAM upper ridging and digs into theplains. This system translates eastward through the southern OhioValley Friday into Saturday. ECMWF has remained far enough north toimpact the area with deformation from this system with other 00zmodels also continuing to support this scenario. While the system isnot tied into the northern stream, residual cold air does settlesouth through the region late this weak as the stalled frontalboundary positioned just northwest of the region washes out withtime. That said, trends suggest that afair amount of the precipitation will fall as snow, and with aslightly faster start time late Friday into Friday night, diurnalconsiderations would support a better chance of some snow accumulations.This will be aided by the at least modest precipitation rates thatlook more likely now that model consensus suggests the area ofdeformation will impact the region for a fairly extended period fromFriday evening into Saturday morning. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 If this double post sorry. But my gut is saying that the local Mets and oax are down playing this incorrectly. OAX is staying with the gfs even though they recognize it's the outlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 E NE Jim flowers is posting on the storm so I'm guessing he is favoring a snowier solution. No video yet. Edit: Based on his post up to .25 of freezing rain then up to 3 inches of wet snow. Where is he posting at? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The ICON really crapped out Iowa compared to the 00z run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wednesday night through Friday: The break in precipitation may not last all that long as anothertrough and another round of PVA brings another shot at precipWednesday night. Temps manage mid-30s thanks to continued WAA andin direct defiance of the overcast skies. The associated coldfront will pull in enough cooler air that initial precip willfall as snow. The wave cuts off from the main flow but where itsettles in is still up in the air. The GFS`s northern placement ofthe low and associated deformation zone gives us the best chanceof precip, but it seems the outlier at this time. Have kept 30-40%POPs over the eastern half of the CWA through Friday morning, butthis seems likelier to be reduced vs increased. As it stands now,this additional occasional snow from Wednesday night into mid-dayFriday may bring another 1-2". Again, with temps near freezing attimes, this snow may not stick around long. Saturday through Monday: Warmer and drier conditions are expectedwith southwesterly flow directed by some upper level ridging. We maymiss the chance of mid-week precip as the next system looks to passtoo far south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Didn't even know this snow was a possibility, but I am very much on board with this. My hope with longer lasting systems is always that they can over-perform. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Where is he posting at?He turn on his Facebook page again but it's off now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 RDPS- I think the most logical through 48hrs as of this post-https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020012112&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Didn't even know this snow was a possibility, but I am very much on board with this. My hope with longer lasting systems is always that they can over-perform. I find that there is always room for an overachiever due to the slow moving/pivoting bands. You can see the models are starting to hone in on these features. We haven't had one of these closed ULL's in some time so its going to be fun watching this system on radar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Hopefully, this will be a diurnal event, unlike the other snowstorm last weekend. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS is still rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 RDPS- I think the most logical through 48hrs as of this post-https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020012112&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Where is he posting at?Back up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1328508254003154&id=148018328718825&anchor_composer=false Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS is mostly rain, but here's what it shows for total precip. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Here is this weeks storm. If ya look back in the last storm thread they were pretty darn good when everyone thought they were stupid. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Broken clock is right twice a day. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z Canadian This run cut the Chicago area down by quite a bit. This appears to be the nature of this system. While it will be pretty widespread in general, specific locations still rise/fall a fair amount based on each run's depiction of the various spokes of energy. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 GFS is still rain.Heck of a battle shaping up between the GFS and every other model. Let's see if the Euro matches up with the Nam and if so then we might be able to discount the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 FWIW, the GFS model has officially dropped to 4th place and the Canadian has taken over the 3rd spot. Not a good day for NCEP and their new GFS model. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 There's no way anyone gets 8-12" of snow out of this like the Euro, Canadian, and NAM are showing. Not a strong system at all. All of the models are showing the low staying above 1010 MB. Only thing that it has going for it is it's slow movement. Otherwise marginal temps, rates etc will hurt amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Heck of a battle shaping up between the GFS and every other model. Let's see if the Euro matches up with the Nam and if so then we might be able to discount the GFS. I honestly don't think it's even a battle. There is clearly something wrong with the low level thermals of the GFS. Every single other model is showing it cold enough throughout the column for snow, but the GFS is maintaining above 0 at 925mb on down to the surface. Toss out the GFS for this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 My weather office said, nothing to see here yesterday, now they are saying it will stay south of Michigan and transfer to the East Coast. But they say snow is likely Friday. They are confused by this system to say the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 FWIW, the GFS model has officially dropped to 4th place and the Canadian has taken over the 3rd spot. Not a good day for NCEP and their new GFS model.I trust you. Wanna see the data. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 There's no way anyone gets 8-12" of snow out of this like the Euro, Canadian, and NAM are showing. Not a strong system at all. All of the models are showing the low staying above 1010 MB. Only thing that it has going for it is it's slow movement. Otherwise marginal temps, rates etc will hurt amounts.I believe It really has more to do so with the qpf output and longevity more so than the strength of the system. Not saying that any one location will get 12" but its not out of the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post.Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z UK... This run has the best precip from the main upper energy kinda pivoting around the middle of Iowa. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z UK... This run has the best precip from the main upper energy kinda pivoting around the middle of Iowa. us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012112_120_5660_220.png Any idea on what kind of precip?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking.... What you've been doing is posting the link to the website url. There's nothing wrong with that. However, to directly show the image in your post (if that's what you want to do) you want to right click on the image itself and "copy image address". Then click on the square image icon (directly under the emoji icon) and paste the image url. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Any idea on what kind of precip?? While I don't have access to the 950 mb temp, the UK surface temp never rises above freezing in Cedar Rapids, which likely means it's all or nearly-all snow. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 While I don't have access to the 950 mb temp, the UK surface temp never rises above freezing in Cedar Rapids, which likely means it's all or nearly-all snow. Much thanks. Very interested in this set-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The GEFS has been very stable, showing very little change from run to run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 My enthusiasm last night was short lived. Another miss. Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events. Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 6z EC and Mean Euro, GEM, ICON all have/are trending much better around here. I haven't been invested in this until now, but that may be changing with some models getting me back in the game Especially like that latest UK looking wetter (not mostly liquid but snow here hopefully). 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z GEFS... Hawkeye beat me to the comment, but was going to say how stubborn GEFS has been. Not budging. Keeps the sig snowfall west and refuses to baby-step it eastward like other models seem to be doing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 My enthusiasm last night was short lived. Another miss. Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events. Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop. Sadly CNEWx, you're one of our regular posters living on the edges of the Sub and I believe in a different "zone" from most of us. When you do well, we rarely join you, and vice-versa 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 This NWS snow forecast is pretty reasonable. 3-6" total sounds about right. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Sadly CNEWx, you're one of our regular posters living on the edges of the Sub and I believe in a different "zone" from most of us. When you do well, we rarely join you, and vice-versaYou are so correct. I do better early and later. Typically my area's best times are in the coming months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Euro has snow starting around noon tomorrow in CR and snowing all day and all night, about 3" by 6am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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