Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The Euro keeps digging the upper low farther south. Two runs ago it was northeast KS, then last night southeast KS, now it's nw AR. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 For Eastern Iowa, looks like 18+ hours of light snow starting tomorrow afternoon ending Thursday AM, then a bit of a break. Now the Euro is sliding further south with the system Thursday though. Just glancing the south half of the state really. Then strengthens a bit more on Friday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Euro looks to add only 1-2" in Eastern Iowa from Thursday PM into Friday AM after tomorrows system moves out. So if the Euro is right, the bulk of the snow we see form this will be with wave 1 tomorrow afternoon and evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 My enthusiasm last night was short lived. Another miss. Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events. Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop.Don’t feel too bad. All we have had in Lincoln. Last week was our second biggest storm at 1.8” just under the 2.1 we had the month prior. We are sitting at 6.5 inches for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Euro totals for most of us. Still some lingering in Chicago and into MI that could add on a little more in those areas. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Lost access to the page for a bit there but oax going with a wwa currently. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 might wanna change the title to cut off low, since that's more of what this is. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Storm starting to look good for most of the Sub! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 LOTs take The first half of the event by early Friday morning looks toproduce a total of 1-2 inches east and 2-3.5 inches west, withthose totals most reflective of grassy surfaces given the longduration. Again lighter rates and air temperatures should allowfor fairly effective treatment on roads, where totals look to beless. The "second half" of the event is when the system is deepeningand that`s why it may have a slightly different character. Alsogiven the low trajectory, the atmospheric wind field becomes morenortheasterly and then northerly, likely keeping precipitationtype as snow apart from the southeast half of the CWA during theday Friday. If the mean model solution of forecast systemdeepening time and track ends up being near correct, there shouldbe better upper level forcing and some mid-level baroclinicityFriday afternoon into night to support at least occasionalmoderate snow and potentially seeing a few to several inchesduring that 18 hour period or so. While confidence on accumulatingsnow for the CWA during that time is fairly high, amount detailsare quite low for all the aforementioned reasons. Also the bestupper to mid-level forcing is not that persistent over the CWA incurrent model solutions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z NAM is stronger to the west and east of CR/IC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 WWA for 1-3" tonight into tomorrow morning, and then maybe another 1-3" Thursday. Sounds about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 18Z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 I just don't see how CR is gonna get 11" of snow this week. I mean bring it on, but I don't buy even half that to be honest. I could see 2-3" tomorrow and 1-3" Thursday/Friday. Best case scenario 3-6" total. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 DVN point forecast is 1" tomorrow and 1-2" Thursday night. So 2-3" weekly total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Jim Flowers on the snow tomorrow in E NE. Yes he does like sing before his videos lol. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1328704327316880&id=148018328718825&anchor_composer=false 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looks like the ULL was significantly further south on the 18z NAM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Why are the models so bullish on snow compared to forecasts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 I just don't see how CR is gonna get 11" of snow this week. I mean bring it on, but I don't buy even half that to be honest. I could see 2-3" tomorrow and 1-3" Thursday/Friday. Best case scenario 3-6" total. No doubt, the totals are likely over done and not taking into account compaction/melting/etc. I'm guessing widespread 4-6" (possible 8" localized) across N IL. This stuff is going to be wet sticky snow which will certainly change the landscape and that's what I'm looking forward to seeing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wow the gfs just tanked it all for the system going 3 overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Wow the gfs just tanked it all for the system going 3 overall. The GFS likely has a poor handle on the thermodynamics of the system. I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Unless its right lol 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 The GFS likely has a poor handle on the thermodynamics of the system. I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Unless its right lolThat's what makes me nervous mid range it's horrible but hasn't been bad for the short range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Truly incredible that the GFS continues to show all rain. Here is the QPF. Applying 10:1 ratios would be quite impressive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Truly incredible that the GFS continues to show all rain. Here is the QPF. Applying 10:1 ratios would be quite impressive. From what I've read and seen 8:1 to 10:1 ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 Combining NWS Omaha's graphics (link here, trying to save data for our mobile users) puts the city in a 3-6" grand total range. Pretty fair for where we're at right now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 21, 2020 Report Share Posted January 21, 2020 That was me. Took it down to prep for an upgrade. Sorry about that.No worries! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Man, 18z GFS ENS mean really revved up total accumulations for eastern Nebraska - went from a small blip of 2-3" by Saturday in yesterday's 18z mean to 7-8" now. Also looks to be the first run since yesterday's 18z that brought the >6" snows back south of the IL/WI border, pretty much a win-win between the two of those regions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 18z Euro is a thing of beauty for my back yard. Still snowing in Chicago and points north and east at hr 90. Most of the accum for my area falls on Thursday afternoon through Friday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Clinton, Love that EURO run. I think we have a cold surge later Thursday also which will hopefully get us down into the upper 20’s while that snow hits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z Euro... Certainly applaud the Euro's trends here in the Mitt. Getting that 6" line dangerously close. Even a low-ratio 2-4" would go well with the current base OTG. Edit: Decided to read my office's pm update, and they seem to be more enthusiastic than a few days ago. A consensus of the deterministic runs/ensemble means indicate QPFamounts of 0.25"-0.50" are likely Friday into Saturday. If most orall of this stays snow, we are expecting low snow to liquid ratioson the order of 6:1 to 9:1 or so. Thus, snow accumulations drawn outover a 24-36 hour period could amount to 2"-4" potentially. Any rainmixing in would lower those amounts. Some travel impacts for theFriday evening commute are not out of the question depending on howthis plays out. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Note the different time-stamps (and ratios) make these non-comparable: 12z 18z Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 The EPS mean has very slowly been creeping up totals for many of us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Clinton, Love that EURO run. I think we have a cold surge later Thursday also which will hopefully get us down into the upper 20’s while that snow hits.The Kansas side of the metro may sneak out 2 inches or so tomorrow but that front you mentioned will help deliver the goods Thur-Friday, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Note the different time-stamps (and ratios) make these non-comparable: 12z 20200121 12z Euro KCH Snowfall_h126.png 18z 20200121 18z Euro 10-1 Snowfall_h90.png Here is the 18z with Kuchera, it fluffs up my totals just a hair not sure about everyone else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 The ooz HRRR looks to be in agreement with the Euro with accumulations through tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z NAM is way south with the main upper low, is a total whiff for Iowa. Seriously??? This has to be a joke. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Tough break for NE/IA folks on the 0z NAM, second wave looks like it kicks off as rain and the 'backside' snow peters out before it can complete the 6"+ totals reflected in prior runs. Cuts the Omaha area's total in half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z NAM is way south with the main upper low, is a total whiff for Iowa. Seriously??? This has to be a joke. NOAA/WPC sure liking Iowa 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Looking not too impressive for mby. I'd say 1-3inch totals should do it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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