NH4NU Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 For what it's worth, the HRRR is lining up nearly perfect with current radar trends. Wintry mix moving into Lincoln at this time. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2020012202&fh=1&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Freezing rain and snow. Streets are a shiny glaze right now at 32 degrees. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z ICON precip 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Would have been nice if this system was working w true arctic air instead of stale arctic cold. Nevertheless, it will be a wet snow that will stick to everything and make for a beautiful postcard pic. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Our school district among many in Central Nebraska just announced a 10 AM start for tomorrow due to the freezing rain and treacherous road conditions. We’ll get a little extra sleep in the morning which is nice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Haven’t followed this much at all so I was surprised to see a WAA issued a bit ago for snow and freezing rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Haven’t followed this much at all so I was surprised to see a WAA issued a bit ago for snow and freezing rain.Your in the spot where you get at least a piece of everything this year. How much are you looking at? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Silly GFS....gonna move down behind the icon and the French model 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 NOWCAST!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 I've had a busy day so haven't been able to follow much but im.in a WWA for tomorrow for 1-3" and a glaze of ice. I'll take it and hopefully add on more thu-fri! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Getting (freezing...) rain here. Any places that thawed are already icy again. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Your in the spot where you get at least a piece of everything this year. How much are you looking at?Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory. Good luck to you down there buddy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory. Good luck to you down there buddy!Thanks, and I bet your right. Thursday and Friday look to be the action days down here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 GFS is still rain, but also still farther north and solidly wet across Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Bill Randby saying it gets above freezing tomorrow and stays all rain after an 1 or 2 of slushy snow in morning...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Bill Randby saying it gets above freezing tomorrow and stays all rain after an 1 or 2 of slushy snow in morning......I'm not sure I buy into that. There is warm air around but the dynamics are different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 E NE - Jim just updated he has shifted to more ice accumulation and then 2-3 inches of snow. Not going to be a fun one tomorrow. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1328880070632639&id=148018328718825&anchor_composer=false Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z Canadian 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 NWS Hastings Twitter https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1219838360664956928?s=21 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Seems like sleet is mixing in now. Ice on top of ice, and it's struggle to walk even walk on pavement. I'm not sure exactly how the morning commute will be, I would think sitting at 34-35 for several hours would help a lot. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Freezing rain just started. A touch ahead of schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 You guys can keep the ice. The ice from the last storm made enough of a mess on the pavement. It is taking quite a bit of effort to scrape it off. 00z UK... The non-NAM models are at least getting the second wave of snow up into southeast Iowa. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Probably playing it safe. The past two storms around here ended up more rain than snow. The warmer air won out and we ended up with less snow than they thought 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z Euro... another model trending toward the second wave of snow only reaching up into southeastern Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here?That probably isn't covering the entire storm. This will be going into Saturday in northern IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here?That's just for the 1st initial WAA snows that are developing out west and heading here late tonight into tomorrow. The main show begins Friday-Sat as the secondary, juicier wave rotates up from the GOM up into the Lower Lakes. We may have to deal with some RN mixing in on Friday afternoon, esp in the city, but some of us out farther west may stay all snow. These ULL systems almost always throw surprises and as they have a mind of their own. Should be an interesting few days around these parts. With that in mind, here is what the 00z Euro/Ukie is showing...I'm wondering if dynamic cooling will play a role here with these heavier bands rotating/pivoting into our area on Friday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 00z EPS/Control.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 It's conceivable, ORD may double it's current January snowfall total (5.9") from this one system. One of the concerns I have for the metro and for Cook/Lake counties is for the precip to changeover to RN during Friday afternoon as some warmer air aloft tries to pump northward. Some of the higher rez models show this while most of the W/NW burbs stay mostly SN throughout the entirety of the event. Nonetheless, this will be an interesting few days watching radar trends and how the secondary surge of moisture gets pulled up and rotated into the MW/Lower Lakes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 MKX has an interesting discussion- seems as if they are being very tentative on things for Friday into Saturday, this seems a good explanation of why: “Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low thatlifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter withthe progression and kept some of the precip bottled up furthersouth. This change would favor more precip wrapping intosoutheastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with thatsaid, there are still some questions as to whether models have agood handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/ARThursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low overthe TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south andthis is what could cause the system to deepen as the two featuresphase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impactedthe area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we arecurrently) out models had more significant phasing and strongerlows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down.This has largely been the result of models inability to handle thephasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on howguidance handles these features over the next few model cycles.Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and thesechanges keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snowamounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingeringuncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing inon some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models holdonto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards. Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmerair gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could besuch that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow.The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be adeep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Dothink models could have a slight warm bias to temps and havenudged values down slightly but this would still support arain/snow mix.” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 6z NAM bullseyes mby. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 3z SREF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Already have a problem this morning, forecast temps this morning for KC was expected to be around 29-30 degrees when the precip. arrives. We warmed up to 37 overnight...darn it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Already have a problem this morning, forecast temps this morning for KC was expected to be around 29-30 degrees when the precip. arrives. We warmed up to 37 overnight...darn it.I am at 31. Lets see if your temps drop as the precip starts, I don't think we get much today anyway the models have most of our accum coming tomorrow night and Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 6z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Oh Clinton, that’s a beautiful 06z EURO!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 6z EC and Mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Snowfall 1-3" still looks good for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2020 Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 Sprinkles on way to work. 28 degrees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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