Jump to content

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

Recommended Posts

Would have been nice if this system was working w true arctic air instead of stale arctic cold. Nevertheless, it will be a wet snow that will stick to everything and make for a beautiful postcard pic.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your in the spot where you get at least a piece of everything this year. How much are you looking at?

Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory.

 

Good luck to you down there buddy!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory.

 

Good luck to you down there buddy!

Thanks, and I bet your right.  Thursday and Friday look to be the action days down here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like sleet is mixing in now. Ice on top of ice, and it's struggle to walk even walk on pavement. I'm not sure exactly how the morning commute will be, I would think sitting at 34-35 for several hours would help a lot. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys can keep the ice.  The ice from the last storm made enough of a mess on the pavement.  It is taking quite a bit of effort to scrape it off.

 

00z UK...  The non-NAM models are at least getting the second wave of snow up into southeast Iowa.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012200_102_5660_220.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Euro... another model trending toward the second wave of snow only reaching up into southeastern Iowa.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here?

That's just for the 1st initial WAA snows that are developing out west and heading here late tonight into tomorrow.  The main show begins Friday-Sat as the secondary, juicier wave rotates up from the GOM up into the Lower Lakes.  We may have to deal with some RN mixing in on Friday afternoon, esp in the city, but some of us out farther west may stay all snow.  These ULL systems almost always throw surprises and as they have a mind of their own.  Should be an interesting few days around these parts.

 

With that in mind, here is what the 00z Euro/Ukie is showing...I'm wondering if dynamic cooling will play a role here with these heavier bands rotating/pivoting into our area on Friday.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's conceivable, ORD may double it's current January snowfall total (5.9") from this one system.  One of the concerns I have for the metro and for Cook/Lake counties is for the precip to changeover to RN during Friday afternoon as some warmer air aloft tries to pump northward.  Some of the higher rez models show this while most of the W/NW burbs stay mostly SN throughout the entirety of the event.  Nonetheless, this will be an interesting few days watching radar trends and how the secondary surge of moisture gets pulled up and rotated into the MW/Lower Lakes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

MKX has an interesting discussion- seems as if they are being very tentative on things for Friday into Saturday, this seems a good explanation of why:

 

“Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that

lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with

the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further

south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into

southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that

said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a

good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR

Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over

the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and

this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features

phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted

the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are

currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger

lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2

day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down.

This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the

phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how

guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles.

Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these

changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow

amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering

uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in

on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold

onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards.

 

Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer

air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be

such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow.

The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a

deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do

think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have

nudged values down slightly but this would still support a

rain/snow mix.”

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already have a problem this morning, forecast temps this morning for KC was expected to be around 29-30 degrees when the precip. arrives. We warmed up to 37 overnight...darn it.

I am at 31.  Lets see if your temps drop as the precip starts, I don't think we get much today anyway the models have most of our accum coming tomorrow night and Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...