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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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There are more light rain and freezing rain reports in central/western Iowa this morning than snow reports.

 

The 06z NAM came back nw some with the second wave after the 00z Iowa miss.  Hopefully, this morning's runs hold serve.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snowfall 1-3" still looks good for my area.

I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

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I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

 

Yeah, some models show exactly that. With the extremely marginal thermals, we could all go down in flames but this is one time I would not want to be along a lakeshore area.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

Yep, I was thinking about that as well. Sloppy system! No cold air to work w and here we are in the hard of Winter.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Frz rain and sleet falling yuck!

 

But snow down to the bayous of LA???   :wacko:

 

20200122 14z CONUS Radar.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, I was thinking about that as well. Sloppy system! No cold air to work w and here we are in the heart of Winter.

 

What gave you a boost last weekend, may be the Grinch this time. Hopefully we all get lucky. That just hasn't been the theme of this winter tho. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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But snow down to the bayous of LA???   :wacko:

 

attachicon.gif20200122 14z CONUS Radar.PNG

Miami, FL is freezing as well. I had no idea it was that cold there. Crazy! My uncle told me this morning that they had the heat on last nite as temps tumbled into the upper 30s. They are snowbirds and stay there for about 3 to 4 months, then, fly back to NYC where their home is.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What gave you a boost last weekend, may be the Grinch this time. Hopefully we all get lucky. That just hasn't been the theme of this winter tho. 

We can still manage to get some minor accumulations. We will see. Hopefully, those near-surface winds are not SE.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That's pretty good for Illinois and Wisconsin as the main energy amps up and cuts north a bit.

 

I'm happy to see it come back from the abyss for us.  This run keeps light snow going through Friday night again.

 

I'm thinking 3-4 inches may be what we'll end up with yet again.  4" seems to be a ceiling this winter (most winters).

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What kind of precip are the Des Moines area members receiving this morning?

Started off as -FZDZSN than some heavier echoes moved through which was -FZRAPL and then about 7:45 solid -FZRA and now has switched to very nice -SN with VIS about 2-3 miles.

Ames had a rather long period of -FZRA. Pretty sure the heavier echoes S of DSM is snow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What you've been doing is posting the link to the website url.  There's nothing wrong with that.  However, to directly show the image in your post (if that's what you want to do) you want to right click on the image itself and "copy image address".  Then click on the square image icon (directly under the emoji icon) and paste the image url.

Thanks for this. Will save time/space/clutter in having to download the images etc..

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I often forget to check the RGEM/RDPS.  This run is certainly a solid look for this area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's pretty good for Illinois and Wisconsin as the main energy amps up and cuts north a bit.

 

I'm happy to see it come back from the abyss for us.  This run keeps light snow going through Friday night again.

 

I'm thinking 3-4 inches may be what we'll end up with yet again.  4" seems to be a ceiling this winter (most winters).

 

Sucky warm for SMI tho. I'm hoping MKE's take ends up correct that the models at this range are a bit over-amped. Not like that never happens with the NAM anyways. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12Z NAM would deliver my biggest snow in years.

Awesome.......

 

;) :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sucky warm for SMI tho. I'm hoping MKE's take end up correct that the models at this range are a bit over-amped. Not like that never happens with the NAM anyways. 

Yep..upper 30s w light rain mix w snow is in my grid. Not sure I even get any minor accumulations.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Is there anything worse than freezing drizzle?  :(

The answer to that question is....Absolutely Not!! You have no idea how much I hate ice. :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Is there anything worse than freezing drizzle?  :(

 

Yep. Warm rain that melts your snow cover. Much worse

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is one of the nastiest and lame events ever. Slushy half melted snow and ice/water everywhere and steady light snow but not much accumulating at all with temps at 33.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Been under one of the heavier bands of snow (heavier E of me) for about 45 mins. Not near the accumulation the HRRR and RAP are showing. I think it;s thermals and time of day. But still probably .75"- 1" or so- but I'd take values at 75% or so at this juncture if everything stays the same. Nighttime will be different as its clear radiation and temps are having an impact.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This is one of the nastiest and lame events ever. Slushy half melted snow and ice/water everywhere and steady light snow but not much accumulating at all with temps at 33.

Yeah between the ice and slushy snow this has been one nasty event to say the least. Out of all this precipitation that has steadily been falling all morning, we might have picked up 2 inches of snow... probably more than that but it’s compacting due to the above freezing temps.

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