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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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12Z NAM and 3km NAM Tom smasher

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Just took a stroll through the neighborhood to soak it all in.  It's a light, delicate, scenic snowfall and surprisingly still sorta powdery.  You have to embrace the days it snows in a Winter that hasn't yet provided as much as we'd hope so far.  I got this funny feeling there is plenty more down the road.

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My snow total from the first wave is a nice 2.9".  I'm pretty happy about that.  I thought we might be done last night, but overnight another 0.7" fell.  As others have said, it is very scenic.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Models are averaging about 0.30" liquid in my area tonight/Friday, which should amount to a few more inches of snow.  I would be very satisfied with a 5-6" total.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK has another 0.40" qpf here in CR.

 

We may melt just a bit today.  The temp has risen above freezing.

 

How are the southeast Nebraska members doing this morning?  Radar looks decent and Lincoln reported moderate snow last hour.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK has another 0.40" qpf here in CR.

 

We may melt just a bit today.  The temp has risen above freezing.

 

How are the southeast Nebraska members doing this morning?  Radar looks decent and Lincoln reported moderate snow last hour.

It's been snowing for a few hours now but no accumulations. Everything is melting with a temp of 34 degrees.

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12z UK has another 0.40" qpf here in CR.

 

We may melt just a bit today.  The temp has risen above freezing.

 

How are the southeast Nebraska members doing this morning?  Radar looks decent and Lincoln reported moderate snow last hour.

It’s been coming down good for a while but only about an inch of new snow with temps at 33. If it was a couple degrees colder we’d probably have like 3”

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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06z NAM looked like things were gonna trend better here, only to have the 12z wipe that all off the chalk board. 

 

Attm, it looks like my best shot at just a 1" dog turd duster is tomorrow evening:

 

20200123 12z NAM12 h42.png

 

Meanwhile, NAM has my 2m temps staying above freezing for days so a slow death of my decent snow cover is in the works as well..great stuff

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL at this spinning precip Saturday pm. It's like there's some kind of invisible snow shield along the southern border of my county....pfft!!

 

20200123 12z NAM3 h55.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL at this spinning precip Saturday pm. It's like there's some kind of invisible snow shield along the southern border of my county....pfft!!

 

20200123 12z NAM3 h55.png

That's wrong. We all know there is an actual forcefield at the state line.

 

Also I get almost no accumulation from that thanks to temps well above freezing.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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12z Euro

 

This is the driest model for Cedar Rapids.  It's certainly a nice hit for MO/IL/WI.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro...another look but likely overdone...IMO, the nature of cut-off ULL's, anyone that resides N & W of the system is in the game to see some surprise totals.  Locally speaking, in terms of N IL snowfall amounts, I would guess that LOT increases their snowfall forecasts based on the data that has come in today.  Seems to me an appreciable snowfall is in the cards 4-6", local 8" (all depends on how strong the defo band forms and slowly pivots).

 

 

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Liking the uptick in snow amounts with the runs so far but not getting excited yet as things can change on the next set of runs. Defo bands are looking sweet and if it can sit and spin at any one location for a long duration then some areas can really cash in. Looking forward to tomorrow into Saturday.

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The 18z HRRR has cut my precip in half, dropping from 0.30" to 0.15".  Hopefully, the 12z consensus of about 0.30" will be more correct.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12Z EC and Mean

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:rolleyes:  If I had a $buck$ for every time I was riding the 2" line this winter and last, I could quit my day job

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's alright as long as its building a base...snow on snow is a win in my book!

Yep. Curious to see what tomorrow evening/night brings our way. Beyond that, not digging the lows hovering around freezing and highs 35-40. Just a miserable winter around here. Sadly enough, I’m actually used to it after the last 3-4 years.

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