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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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Models are crapping out the eastern Iowa bands over the next few hours, but they actually keep the enhanced band over central Iowa going through afternoon.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There's a pretty good band of snow from nw of Cedar Rapids down to south-central IA.  It actually strengthened as it moved away from me.  I don't think I'll get much more.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The snow is so wet down here, where it's been pushed in to piles it looks blue.  Light to moderate snow falling with a temp of 32.

 

Same around here last Saturday. Congrats buddy on scoring. Hope you're enjoying on behalf of those of us "riding the bench". Perhaps SSR trends will go my way at the very tail end here. As LOT mentions, surprises abound with these ULL scenarios, and there were some major surprises back in the day.. ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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yeah, saw the 4" report in North Liberty.  I measured just over 3" on top of my car, which certainly had melted and compacted some, but i hadn't cleared my driveway very well from the 2" we got on Wednesday so I couldn't measure there.  So about 6" or so for the week, not bad at all.  

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with the 4" today my season total is up to 23.2".  4 times this year I have received ~ 4" of snow.  Incredible how 4" seems to be the max we get anymore.  4.7" on 10/30 remains the most on the season, also incredible that an October snow could end up being my highest individual event.  

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PLEASE VERIFY!!!!!

Nearly all the global models want to paint a bullseye of the heaviest precip over in N IL/SE WI.  Some of this qpf is plain rain from today, but then it switches over the SN after about 6:00pm in NE IL.  I've never seen a pivot of such an intense defo band the models are painting and the slow movement.  Gosh, I can't help but think what a difference it would make to have it just a few degrees colder!

 

I'd say there is about .40-.50 qpf of RN on the 00z Ukie before the switchovr happens.

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My final total is 3.1", exactly what I needed to hit 6.0" for the combined waves.  It is very wet outside now as the temp has risen above freezing.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My final total is 3.1", exactly what I needed to hit 6.0" for the combined waves.  It is very wet outside now as the temp rises above freezing.

 

Seems like you've made out great considering all the posts about this model drying up, or that model showing rain, etc. 

 

I'll be lucky to snag some tail-end SHSN later tomorrow..

 

20200124 Intellicast h48 Surf map.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Seems like you've made out great considering all the posts about this model drying up, or that model showing rain, etc. 

 

I'll be lucky to snag some tail-end SHSN later tomorrow..

 

Yeah, it played out about as favorably as it could have.  I was guessing 3-4" for the combined total, so 6" is pretty good.  My area has been just cold enough to get nearly all snow and the second wave's defo band backed sufficiently far northwest to drop good precip here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I truly do not know what to expect tonight but I hope to at least see some snow out of this setup. Heavy snow for a several hour period is a possibility, just depends on where the defo band decides to setup shop.

You seem to be pretty realistic with expectations so I would keep running with that

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Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trust those when temps are marginal or there is a bit of mixture.

IMG-4583.jpg

 

IMG-4591.jpg

 

IMG-4601.jpg

Great pics!  Looks like a winter wonderland for sure.  I'm hoping to see something similar tomorrow morning around these parts.

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I got around 6.2" now from both waves which is much better than I expected. The models did well for my area for a change. I guess my January total is over 10" now. Last evening I noticed my January '19 total was over 21" which was my highest January total of my records which I hadn't realized or forgot about it! This is the kind of snow that kids can have fun in. It really packs and it's not so crazy cold.

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I'd say we currently have ~8" down in Iowa City. Should decay some over the coming week, but with highs near freezing, should maintain most of it.

We’ve been near or above freezing for the last few days with minimal melt. I have 2.5 to 3 foot piles along my driveway and they barely took a hit. Congrats on the snowpack down there.

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