bud2380 Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually. The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps. QPF didn't seem to far off though. Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column. Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well. Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 starting to look like a Rockford special in the works. Wherever that sharp cutoff ends up, some folks could end up with less snow otg after this “long duration storm” than they started with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Well is depressing!! 40 degrees and rain!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually. The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps. QPF didn't seem to far off though. Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column. Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well. Not sure how they fix that, but they need to.Not here they didn’t. We were in the 8” bullseye on the euro and our LOT forecast had 1-2” both nights. Got less than an inch so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Heading up route 71 towards Oswego and visibility is only about 100 feet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just got back inside, I measured 4 inches of snow. Absolutely beautiful outside.Congrats bud..enjoy it! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually. The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps. QPF didn't seem to far off though. Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column. Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well. Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. The NAM and Euro excel in marginal surface temp situations. They're always my go to. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 The NAM and Euro excel in marginal surface temp situations. They're always my go to.What’s odd is the GFS did better here in Michigan than other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up. On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 24, 2020 Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up. On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.Gotta love when night time lows are above daytime average highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up. On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.Looks like it is beginning to changeover in along the WI/IL border and seeping southward. The higher reflectivity on radar suggests to me it’s already showing frozen precipitation in the upper levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Mostly snow in Rockford right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Enjoying the 40* weather in January. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Some of the biggest flakes I've seen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 We have a pretty good snowpack at this point. snow.jpg Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. Nope. I live halfway between downtown and the edge of the city, in the heart of suburbia. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Almost 9pm and still raining here. But the fire is still nice and warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Radar suggests a band of heavy snow over Rockford at the moment. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 My brother lives in Lake County and has been seeing snow since 7:15. Big fat flakes and producing a lovely wintry scene. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Rockford looks like lound town...think I am on the west edge looking in...oh well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Cute "canned wx" graphic idea from APX 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratosjeff Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Rockford 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Rockford 20200124_213309.jpgJealous! Enjoy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Gonna pound at my old place SE of Traverse Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Gaylord MI933 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020MIZ020-025-026-250445-Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City933 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020An area of heavy snow mixed with rain is moving toward thenorthwest from near Fife Lake. This precipitation combined withtemperatures holding around freezing will make area roads veryslippery and possibly quickly snow and slush covered.Slow down and watch for rapidly changing road conditions. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Not even rain here any more. Once it rotates around a little more im guessing we will be in the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wish I could see this in person! Has to be the darkest blues I've ever seen on this style of p-type radar 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 All snow here now...starting to stick on everything. Hoping for the best and and wake up to a fresh blanket of snow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 All snow here now...starting to stick on everything. Hoping for the best and and wake up to a fresh blanket of snow.Good luck hope you get a bunch! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wish I could see this in person! Has to be the darkest blues I've ever seen on this style of p-type radar 20200124_11 pm Mitt Radar.JPGWow....impressive blue. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 All snow here now...starting to stick on everything. Hoping for the best and and wake up to a fresh blanket of snow.All rain here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Rockford 20200124_213309.jpgStill getting nailed, looks to continue for hours more. Congrats, good to see some winners even in a terrible pattern! I'm intrigued to know your total over there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looks like those out farther west in N IL/S WI will be the winners, esp out by StratoJeff and the RFD area, not much going on over here. Hard to tell, but maybe I got 1" since last night. Maybe tack on an additional 1-2" throughout the day today depending on that banding to swing back over here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Im out throwing some salt down. 1/2" or less all through the Lombard and Naperville areas. ☹ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Storm summary from the KC area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 snow sticking to everything. Sure is pretty out this morning. should be a fun day for the kids 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 When the snowflakes last night were the largest I’ve ever seen—some were easily pushing 2.5”—we might have had over an inch. By morning it’s already settled by half. I’ll be surprised if the wraparound band amounts to much today. On the plus sides, it is just beautiful out with snow stuck to every twig. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 With the way all the past storms have gone. Im gonna say that 3-5 ends up being 2 or 3. Over the coarse of three days. And with snow falling during the daytime hours. Im not optimistic it amounts to very much.Im guessing it ended up about 2.5" total since it started Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Looks like those out farther west in N IL/S WI will be the winners, esp out by StratoJeff and the RFD area, not much going on over here. Hard to tell, but maybe I got 1" since last night. Maybe tack on an additional 1-2" throughout the day today depending on that banding to swing back over here. Reading LOT's graphics, this seems like a pretty big bust for the Metro region from what they were thinking a day or so ago. Sorry to hear that as I was planning on you reeling this one in for a nice hit and coming on this morning to congratulate you. Iirc, they were thinking a solid 4-6" over the Thu-Sat time span. Where are you attm? You mentioned an inch last night? Or more? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 Reading LOT's graphics, this seems like a pretty big bust for the Metro region from what they were thinking a day or so ago. Sorry to hear that as I was planning on you reeling this one in for a nice hit and coming on this morning to congratulate you. Iirc, they were thinking a solid 4-6" over the Thu-Sat time span. Where are you attm? You mentioned an inch last night? Or more?Big time bust. Lots of calls for 4-6, 4-8+, and even a 5-10”. I can report here locally that we got about 0.05” of slush. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2020 Report Share Posted January 25, 2020 ULL's can be very tricky. Ya just need to be in the correct spot for these systems. Otherwise, you don't score. If ya do, then, you can get inundated from it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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