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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Tom

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Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually.  The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps.  QPF didn't seem to far off though.  Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column.  Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well.  Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. 

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Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually. The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps. QPF didn't seem to far off though. Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column. Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well. Not sure how they fix that, but they need to.

Not here they didn’t. We were in the 8” bullseye on the euro and our LOT forecast had 1-2” both nights. Got less than an inch so far

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Just got back inside, I measured 4 inches of snow.  Absolutely beautiful outside.

Congrats bud..enjoy it! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually.  The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps.  QPF didn't seem to far off though.  Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column.  Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well.  Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. 

 

The NAM and Euro excel in marginal surface temp situations. They're always my go to.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

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Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

Gotta love when night time lows are above daytime average highs.

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Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

Looks like it is beginning to changeover in along the WI/IL border and seeping southward. The higher reflectivity on radar suggests to me it’s already showing frozen precipitation in the upper levels.

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We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.

 

attachicon.gifsnow.jpg

 

Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. 

 

Nope.  I live halfway between downtown and the edge of the city, in the heart of suburbia.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Cute "canned wx" graphic idea from APX  :lol:

 

20200124 APX Canned Wx Graphic.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gonna pound at my old place SE of Traverse

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
933 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

MIZ020-025-026-250445-
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City
933 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

An area of heavy snow mixed with rain is moving toward the
northwest from near Fife Lake.
This precipitation combined with
temperatures holding around freezing will make area roads very
slippery and possibly quickly snow and slush covered.


Slow down and watch for rapidly changing road conditions.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:o  Wish I could see this in person!  Has to be the darkest blues I've ever seen on this style of p-type radar

 

20200124_11 pm Mitt Radar.JPG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:o  Wish I could see this in person!  Has to be the darkest blues I've ever seen on this style of p-type radar

 

attachicon.gif20200124_11 pm Mitt Radar.JPG

Wow....impressive blue.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like those out farther west in N IL/S WI will be the winners, esp out by StratoJeff and the RFD area, not much going on over here.  Hard to tell, but maybe I got 1" since last night.  Maybe tack on an additional 1-2" throughout the day today depending on that banding to swing back over here.

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When the snowflakes last night were the largest I’ve ever seen—some were easily pushing 2.5”—we might have had over an inch. By morning it’s already settled by half. I’ll be surprised if the wraparound band amounts to much today.

 

On the plus sides, it is just beautiful out with snow stuck to every twig.

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Looks like those out farther west in N IL/S WI will be the winners, esp out by StratoJeff and the RFD area, not much going on over here.  Hard to tell, but maybe I got 1" since last night.  Maybe tack on an additional 1-2" throughout the day today depending on that banding to swing back over here.

 

Reading LOT's graphics, this seems like a pretty big bust for the Metro region from what they were thinking a day or so ago. Sorry to hear that as I was planning on you reeling this one in for a nice hit and coming on this morning to congratulate you. Iirc, they were thinking a solid 4-6" over the Thu-Sat time span. Where are you attm? You mentioned an inch last night? Or more?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Reading LOT's graphics, this seems like a pretty big bust for the Metro region from what they were thinking a day or so ago. Sorry to hear that as I was planning on you reeling this one in for a nice hit and coming on this morning to congratulate you. Iirc, they were thinking a solid 4-6" over the Thu-Sat time span. Where are you attm? You mentioned an inch last night? Or more?

Big time bust. Lots of calls for 4-6, 4-8+, and even a 5-10”. I can report here locally that we got about 0.05” of slush.

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ULL's can be very tricky. Ya just need to be in the correct spot for these systems. Otherwise, you don't score. If ya do, then, you can get inundated from it.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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