Jump to content
The Weather Forums

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Recommended Posts

While most of us are enjoying a beautiful Winter day, is there more winter weather heading our way???  The models are dialing in on our next storm system that has several components with it that need to be ironed out.  Looks like we will have a CO Low ejecting out into the Plains/MW states and as is it does so, 2 pieces of energy may phase into a cut-off low somewhere across the S Plains/MW states.  This energy slowly "bowls" its way east underneath an expansive upper level ridge across S Canada.  Who gets snow???  Rain or Mix???

 

Let's discuss...

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 530
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

Posted Images

Much of that map for Nebraska is from earlier

 

Looks like its Wednesday (the 22nd). Rain to snow with marginal temps, NAM is similar. GFS is warmer and stays rain.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ratios higher than 10:1 with sfc temps in the 30s? Ehhhh, I don't quite know about that one. 

  • Like 2

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh boy, another rainstorm.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh boy, another rainstorm. 

 

 

I'm not sure how this is a bowling ball wrt snow. Just going by snow maps posted, it does not look that way at all.

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If only those BN temps dates matched the precip dates. 

 

20200117 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z Canadian...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

06z NAM...starting to come in range and it's been showing a colder solution out in the Plains/S MW compared to the warm GFS.  Something to consider as this departing arctic high still has some residual cold left behind.

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

00z Euro...still advertising a widespread 4-6" WWA worthy event???  The neat thing about this system is it will be a slow mover and a lot of the snow that does fall it will be during the daytime hours on both Thu & Fri.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure, the snow maps don't necessarily illustrate a "true" bowling ball system, but at 500mb you can clearly see a cut-off low "bowl" its way east underneath an expansive upper level ridge across Canada. 

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

00z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_168.png

 

 

A clear trend is showing up on the individual GEFS ensemble members and that is more snowier solutions for those that are close to the track of the ULL feature.  This always happens in a more typical Spring-like regime as this pattern is anything but a typical mid-winter pattern in the heart of the coldest part of the season.  With that being said, I would especially start to see more snow out of this than what the GFS op is showing.

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_150.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Clinton,

 

Sign me up for that 06z EURO!

 

What a party out at Arrowhead yesterday. We finally did it, the Chiefs are off to the SB. Mahomes is amazing.

I'll take that also.  What a game yesterday I didn't know if it would ever happen.  We have the best player in football!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA:
 

Nice write-up

 

Precipitation chances will increase late Thursday on into Saturday
as this system passes just south of the area and mean northern
stream upper troughing shifts into the region. Based on model consensus in
the track of this system, modest precipitation amounts look
plausible with this system, especially in the Friday night to
Saturday time frame as the upper low passes to the south and some
degree of deformation sets up in the vicinity.

The ECMWF remains alone in a track well south of the region, but
its relative performance this winter does lend this solution some
credence. Basically, the closer this upper low is to the area, the
more widespread notable precipitation will be. More importantly,
given the marginal nature of cold air associated with the low, the
closer the upper level feature (and its cold core) to the Great
Lakes, the better chance of precipitation falling as all snow.

A track further south, as the ECMWF suggests, would remove
both of these "elements" to a large degree.

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM looking pretty good for widespread 3-6 across the region.  It's odd how the op GFS continues to show mostly rain while other models are all snow.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

DVN is not excited about this system.  

 

"Over the entire 48 to 72 hours span, snowfall amounts do not look

to be all that substantial as some of the QPF will be just rain as well

as a wet snow melting with highs in the mid and upper 30s."

 

DMX is also talking rain.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

DMX not very excited yet:

 

Both GFS and Euro have a surface low consolidating and strengthening

on Thursday night into Friday. GFS is notably farther north and

effects Iowa to a greater extent than its counterpart. Its

solution would keep the threat for light to moderate rain/snow on

Friday for much of central Iowa while the Euro is overall drier

across the state with only very light precipitation occurring as

subsidence rapidly takes over during the day. Overall, confidence

on this system from Thursday into Friday remains quite low with

impacts difficult to determine. It certainly bears watching over

the next few model cycles.

Link to post
Share on other sites

NIce explanation from Green Bay this morning. As long as we can avoid any rain i'm happy. Snowmobile trails are starting to shape up around here.

 

 

 

An upper-level ridge overhead and a surface high pressure system,
to the south of the region, will track eastward Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. This will put Wisconsin under a mean
southwest flow, ahead of a shortwave, helping to allow warmer air
and Gulf moisture to advect north. This moisture is expected to
bring some precipitation to the region Wednesday morning into
Thursday as the shortwave becomes nearly stationary over the Upper
Mississippi Valley. However, the thermal profiles remain a little
questionable with the possibility for freezing rain or freezing
drizzle to mix in with snow, mainly over central and north-central
Wisconsin. Although there are some model differences with the
amount and location of heaviest QPF, most locations could see
between 1 to 3 inches of snow by Thursday morning. While this
shortwave/trough remains nearly stationary into Thursday, keeping
snow chances in the forecast, two upper-level pieces of energy,
one north and one south, will be on deck to potentially impact the
region. Model guidance indicates the southern piece of energy
will be the stronger of the two and set up over Kansas/Missouri
before moving east/northeast into Friday morning. At the same
time, the northern piece of energy will move into the Northern
Plains Thursday night before possibly phasing with the southern
piece of energy sometime on Friday. If these pieces of energy
phase, Wisconsin could see a large amount of precipitation, mainly
in the form of snow with some rain mixed in on Friday. If they
remain as separate pieces, Wisconsin could see much less
precipitation from the northern piece of energy. Since the models
continue to show differences with how this will play out for
Wisconsin, it is likely more changes will occur.
  • Like 2

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src='https://weatherwidget.io/js/widget.min.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,'script','weatherwidget-io-js');

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z GFS has extremely light precip over Iowa from Wednesday afternoon until Saturday morning.  About 60 consecutive hours.  

 

Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, long-duration light rain/snow with temps in the 30s would probably lead to us losing snow, not gaining.

 

Yeah, it is not impressive at all in terms of snow amounts.  Looks like a prolonged period of drizzle and flurries mostly.  Maybe occasional showers, but yeah wouldn't accumulate much if at all.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the 12z UK precip total.  I don't know what this model has for 850 temps.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012012_144_5660_220.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Ukie really honing in on the southern wave coming straight up out of the GOM and getting pulled due north from the northern energy.  The southern wave tracks up the apps into the OHV and phasing with the northern energy right over S IL/IN/OH.  Based on the 2 m temps, anyone West/North of the SLP track seems to remain cold enough to support snow.  That is one sweet looking pivot over the Lower Lakes region.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...