Jump to content
The Weather Forums

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 530
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

Posted Images

The snow is so wet down here, where it's been pushed in to piles it looks blue.  Light to moderate snow falling with a temp of 32.

 

Same around here last Saturday. Congrats buddy on scoring. Hope you're enjoying on behalf of those of us "riding the bench". Perhaps SSR trends will go my way at the very tail end here. As LOT mentions, surprises abound with these ULL scenarios, and there were some major surprises back in the day.. ;)

  • Like 3

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah, saw the 4" report in North Liberty.  I measured just over 3" on top of my car, which certainly had melted and compacted some, but i hadn't cleared my driveway very well from the 2" we got on Wednesday so I couldn't measure there.  So about 6" or so for the week, not bad at all.  

  • Like 5

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

with the 4" today my season total is up to 23.2".  4 times this year I have received ~ 4" of snow.  Incredible how 4" seems to be the max we get anymore.  4.7" on 10/30 remains the most on the season, also incredible that an October snow could end up being my highest individual event.  

  • Like 4

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

PLEASE VERIFY!!!!!

Nearly all the global models want to paint a bullseye of the heaviest precip over in N IL/SE WI.  Some of this qpf is plain rain from today, but then it switches over the SN after about 6:00pm in NE IL.  I've never seen a pivot of such an intense defo band the models are painting and the slow movement.  Gosh, I can't help but think what a difference it would make to have it just a few degrees colder!

 

I'd say there is about .40-.50 qpf of RN on the 00z Ukie before the switchovr happens.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 00z Euro was right on the mark for the snow overnight into this morning in Eastern Iowa.  So definitely can't dismiss it in short terms just because it's a global model.  

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

lsr_snowfall.png

 

Hit it right on the head for my area also.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

My final total is 3.1", exactly what I needed to hit 6.0" for the combined waves.  It is very wet outside now as the temp has risen above freezing.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

My final total is 3.1", exactly what I needed to hit 6.0" for the combined waves.  It is very wet outside now as the temp rises above freezing.

 

Seems like you've made out great considering all the posts about this model drying up, or that model showing rain, etc. 

 

I'll be lucky to snag some tail-end SHSN later tomorrow..

 

20200124 Intellicast h48 Surf map.gif

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like you've made out great considering all the posts about this model drying up, or that model showing rain, etc. 

 

I'll be lucky to snag some tail-end SHSN later tomorrow..

 

Yeah, it played out about as favorably as it could have.  I was guessing 3-4" for the combined total, so 6" is pretty good.  My area has been just cold enough to get nearly all snow and the second wave's defo band backed sufficiently far northwest to drop good precip here.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I truly do not know what to expect tonight but I hope to at least see some snow out of this setup. Heavy snow for a several hour period is a possibility, just depends on where the defo band decides to setup shop.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I truly do not know what to expect tonight but I hope to at least see some snow out of this setup. Heavy snow for a several hour period is a possibility, just depends on where the defo band decides to setup shop.

You seem to be pretty realistic with expectations so I would keep running with that

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd say we currently have ~8" down in Iowa City. Should decay some over the coming week, but with highs near freezing, should maintain most of it.

  • Like 2

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trust those when temps are marginal or there is a bit of mixture.

IMG-4583.jpg

 

IMG-4591.jpg

 

IMG-4601.jpg

Great pics!  Looks like a winter wonderland for sure.  I'm hoping to see something similar tomorrow morning around these parts.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

I got around 6.2" now from both waves which is much better than I expected. The models did well for my area for a change. I guess my January total is over 10" now. Last evening I noticed my January '19 total was over 21" which was my highest January total of my records which I hadn't realized or forgot about it! This is the kind of snow that kids can have fun in. It really packs and it's not so crazy cold.

  • Like 5

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd say we currently have ~8" down in Iowa City. Should decay some over the coming week, but with highs near freezing, should maintain most of it.

We’ve been near or above freezing for the last few days with minimal melt. I have 2.5 to 3 foot piles along my driveway and they barely took a hit. Congrats on the snowpack down there.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Light snow again here this afternoon. I always enjoy the snow that rotates in from the east. It’s usually a fluffy, wetter snow it seems.

 

3 days of snowfall this week. While none of them were significant, I’m pretty sure I’d take this all winter even if it meant no big dogs.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

That band in central Iowa has really gotten it's act together. Gonna see some 6" totals in south central Iowa. (Thats where GDR is right?)

  • Like 1

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

My liquid total from the 3.1" of snow is 0.32".  Both waves were about 10:1.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually.  The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps.  QPF didn't seem to far off though.  Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column.  Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well.  Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. 

  • Like 3

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually. The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps. QPF didn't seem to far off though. Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column. Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well. Not sure how they fix that, but they need to.

Not here they didn’t. We were in the 8” bullseye on the euro and our LOT forecast had 1-2” both nights. Got less than an inch so far

Link to post
Share on other sites

Models (outside of the GFS) handled this weird storm pretty well actually.  The GFS was atrocious with p-type and temps.  QPF didn't seem to far off though.  Let that be a reminder for future storms that there is clearly a fundamental issue with the GFS in regards to temperatures throughout the column.  Which certainly has to lead to untrustworthy results as that is such a critical component to not only ptype but moisture and flake size as well.  Not sure how they fix that, but they need to. 

 

The NAM and Euro excel in marginal surface temp situations. They're always my go to.

  • Like 2

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

Gotta love when night time lows are above daytime average highs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Still 37 here. Looks like its still rain all the way up to Milwaukee currently. Is the warm air going to win out. I said it before, im not optimistic about this set up.

 

On a side not its the end of January and 37* outside. So me, the woman, and the neighbors have a fire going. Yes its light rain. But who cares. Its usually never this warm at the end of January.

Looks like it is beginning to changeover in along the WI/IL border and seeping southward. The higher reflectivity on radar suggests to me it’s already showing frozen precipitation in the upper levels.

Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.

 

attachicon.gifsnow.jpg

 

Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice! For some reason, I pictured that you lived in the country or at least in a country neighborhood outside of town. 

 

Nope.  I live halfway between downtown and the edge of the city, in the heart of suburbia.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Radar suggests a band of heavy snow over Rockford at the moment.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...