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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


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This storm seems really odd, and i'm not sure what to make of it.  Definitely looking like a prolonged event with several weaker shots of precip before possibly a stronger system towards the end of the week.  I'm guessing the canadian showing 5+" over my area is going to end up overdone.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

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Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

I agree, the GFS has horrible physics in their model and I expect to see the snowier solutions pan out.  Just look at most of the GEFS members showing a lot of snowy solutions.  I think the op is out to lunch in terms of precip type.

 

12z Euro coming in colder and snowier....

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total through 102 on Euro--

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2020012012&fh=102&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

I agree- on odd system, but so was the last one.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Unlike most people, I do think the majority of this falls as snow. The warm layer is confined solely below 950mb or so and the column above that is cold. I don’t see how this wouldn’t be snow if temps remain below 35 or so, as the NAM shows(which does very well in marginal temp situations such as this one).

 

I don't disagree it will be snow, i'm just concerned with several models showing 0.1" qpf over 6 hours with temps right at 32 degrees, it seems like that will essentially melt and not really accumulate.  Euro showing similar to the GFS just several degrees colder and therefore snowy instead of rain.  

Euro shows about .6" qpf total, but the most in any 6 hour period for IC/CR is .15" and has the temp at exactly 32 degrees for 3 days straight.  That's just not a great setup for significant accumulations.  That's why I think if you look at the total model output it won't matchup to what we actually see on the ground.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Trends today from the Ukie/GGEM/EURO all pointing towards a more developed and juicier storm.  Some places may see it snow for 36+ hours.  The signal is there for a LONG duration snow event for a lot of members on here,  I don't see why this system can stack up in the snow dept.

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The euro keeps the 850 temp solidly below freezing throughout the event, and keeps Cedar Rapids around freezing at the surface.  Hopefully, the surface temp will not over-perform.  The Euro may have good totals overall, but this is a 2+ day event with generally pretty low rates.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In terms of temps, the Euro is showing low 30's for most of the duration of the event across N IL (Max temp 34F).  The snow that falls will likely stick to everything aiding in a "snow globe" festive look.  #winterwonderland

 

Widespread 6-10"

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I can't imagine snow ratios would average higher than 10:1 during this event, so I would throw out the Kuchera map.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. 

 

I am not sure which model I believe.

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The GFS and Euro are very different for this storm. If the Euro is right, then there will be a widespread winter storm around here that would proably require a winter storm watch to be issued here today. If the GFS is right, then there will just be light rain/snow that would cause no problems around here. 

 

I am not sure which model I believe.

Doubtful that a WSW gets issued but moreso a WWA due to the light/moderate snowfall rates over a very long duration event.

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The Kuchera maps are actually showing an average right around 9:1-10:1

 

I was just focusing on my area.  The 10:1 map has 6-8" while the Kuchera you posted has 8-10".

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Even if this long-duration, low-rate snow has trouble piling up, it will be nice to experience two days of light snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm just trying to envision what this would look like on radar with such light precip for such a long time.  We just don't often get that around here.  Everyone once in awhile.  I can recall a time around 1999 or 2000 over Christmas break it snowed for 24 hours straight and it was so light it only amounted to 6" over 24 hours, but was still pretty cool.  Maybe we get something similar here?  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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This afternoon, DMX and DVN are at least more open to a few inches of snow.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NOAA:

 

The latest runs of extended range models continue with the
preference of a closed solution on the mid Mississippi valley system
heading into the weekend. There also remain a few options on the
track of that system as it moves east of the Mississippi river
Friday night and Saturday. The stalled front/trough to our north
washes out in the meantime which allows some colder air to leak
southward leaning precipitation type toward accumulating snow. The question then
is if the closed low slides eastward more along the Ohio valley
which would allow the north flank of the precipitation shield to
reach SE Michigan, or if it takes a farther south track leaving just
a weak mid level deformation pattern over the central Great Lakes
through Saturday. A position about over the Ohio/West Virginia
border is favored in the latest deterministic runs by 12Z Saturday
which brings the northern fringe of the precipitation shield up to
about the M-59 corridor during Saturday. This is slightly faster and
farther south than the GEFS and NAEFS means and includes a northward
trend in the 12Z ECMWF track compared to its 00Z run.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The GEFS is so much better than the opGFS.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking like it wants to avoid SCMI. Not sure if its just too warm, or loses its mojo because its transferring to a coastal? Some of the Ensembles show snow here, but overall not too promising so far.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Clinton,

 

Take our current air mass in place, take Wednesday-Friday’s moisture feed and then it’s easy....SNOW! Instead, the cold air retreats and thermals become iffy. I’m still hopeful we can score a few snowy periods later this week.

 

Had a nice .5-1 inch snow across the city today. Currently 6 degrees at my house. It’s full blown winter outside right now. 2-3 inches in parts of MO today with that small, but potent disturbance.

 

Thanks for the snow maps, always appreciate them.

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Maybe I’m not out of the game yet. 0z NAM brings the secondary wave farther west this run and even hits Central Nebraska. We’ll see how this plays out the next couple of days.

Strange to see the NAM, ECMWF and GFS ENS in favor of good snows around here while the SREF and GFS vehemently refuse to latch on. Strange storm for sure

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00z opGFS still not budging from its mostly-rain event.

 

One problem is the GFS, on Friday morning, has the surface low over southeast Iowa, which keeps milder air pulled up into my area.  The Euro, meanwhile, has the low over southern Illinois.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Comparing the GFS and NAM temperatures..... the GFS is pulling a significant plume of >0º air northward into the system at 950 mb, and it keeps the temp just above freezing down to the surface.  The NAM has nothing like that.  It shows 950 mb temps

 

925th.us_mw.png

925th.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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