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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


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00z Canadian

 

gem_asnow_ncus_22.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

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00z Euro

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro is about as best of a Midwest "spread the wealth" you'll see....KC/LNK/Quad Cities smash job...in terms of precip type for NE IL, it switches over to a bit of RN/Mix on Fri afternoon as a surge of WAA comes up and wraps around into the system.  Temps aloft cool back down at night allowing a changeover back to SN.  These finer details will be ironed out. 

 

As for the 00z Ukie, it looked nearly identical to the Euro but maybe a bit more juicier overall.  FWIW, both models are seeing the potential for Lehs into SE WI/NE IL even with marginal temps aloft which is interesting.

 

 

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The NAM has really shifted the main 500 mb low northward.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here's the 12z NAM.  It is still snowing at 84 hours.  This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night.  That would be pretty cool.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here's the 12z NAM.  It is still snowing at 84 hours.  This run has it snowing here in Cedar Rapids nonstop from noon Wednesday through Friday night.  That would be pretty cool.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Models seem to be coming in to agreement (except the GFS) that the bullseye of this storm will be NW MO, E. Neb, and SW Iowa.  Also has a area of heavy snow from Cedar Rapids over to Chicago and Wisc.

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NOAA:

The aforementioned upper trough over the central CONUS evolves into
an upper low pressure system late Thursday into Friday as Pacific
shortwave energy rounds western NOAM upper ridging and digs into the
plains. This system translates eastward through the southern Ohio
Valley Friday into Saturday. ECMWF has remained far enough north to
impact the area with deformation from this system with other 00z
models also continuing to support this scenario. While the system is
not tied into the northern stream, residual cold air does settle
south through the region late this weak as the stalled frontal
boundary positioned just northwest of the region washes out with
time. That said, trends suggest that a
fair amount of the precipitation will fall as snow, and with a
slightly faster start time late Friday into Friday night, diurnal
considerations would support a better chance of some snow accumulations.

This will be aided by the at least modest precipitation rates that
look more likely now that model consensus suggests the area of
deformation will impact the region for a fairly extended period from
Friday evening into Saturday morning.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The ICON really crapped out Iowa compared to the 00z run.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wednesday night through Friday:

 

The break in precipitation may not last all that long as another

trough and another round of PVA brings another shot at precip

Wednesday night. Temps manage mid-30s thanks to continued WAA and

in direct defiance of the overcast skies. The associated cold

front will pull in enough cooler air that initial precip will

fall as snow. The wave cuts off from the main flow but where it

settles in is still up in the air. The GFS`s northern placement of

the low and associated deformation zone gives us the best chance

of precip, but it seems the outlier at this time. Have kept 30-40%

POPs over the eastern half of the CWA through Friday morning, but

this seems likelier to be reduced vs increased. As it stands now,

this additional occasional snow from Wednesday night into mid-day

Friday may bring another 1-2". Again, with temps near freezing at

times, this snow may not stick around long.

 

Saturday through Monday: Warmer and drier conditions are expected

with southwesterly flow directed by some upper level ridging. We may

miss the chance of mid-week precip as the next system looks to pass

too far south.

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Didn't even know this snow was a possibility, but I am very much on board with this. My hope with longer lasting systems is always that they can over-perform. 

I find that there is always room for an overachiever due to the slow moving/pivoting bands.  You can see the models are starting to hone in on these features.  We haven't had one of these closed ULL's in some time so its going to be fun watching this system on radar.

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GFS is still rain.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS is mostly rain, but here's what it shows for total precip.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_18.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Canadian

 

This run cut the Chicago area down by quite a bit.  This appears to be the nature of this system.  While it will be pretty widespread in general, specific locations still rise/fall a fair amount based on each run's depiction of the various spokes of energy.

 

gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There's no way anyone gets 8-12" of snow out of this like the Euro, Canadian, and NAM are showing. Not a strong system at all. All of the models are showing the low staying above 1010 MB. Only thing that it has going for it is it's slow movement. Otherwise marginal temps, rates etc will hurt amounts.

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Heck of a battle shaping up between the GFS and every other model. Let's see if the Euro matches up with the Nam and if so then we might be able to discount the GFS.

 

I honestly don't think it's even a battle.  There is clearly something wrong with the low level thermals of the GFS.  Every single other model is showing it cold enough throughout the column for snow, but the GFS is maintaining above 0 at 925mb on down to the surface.  Toss out the GFS for this storm.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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My weather office said, nothing to see here yesterday, now they are saying it will stay south of Michigan and transfer to the East Coast.  But they say snow is likely Friday. They are confused by this system to say the least.   

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FWIW, the GFS model has officially dropped to 4th place and the Canadian has taken over the 3rd spot. Not a good day for NCEP and their new GFS model.

I trust you. Wanna see the data.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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There's no way anyone gets 8-12" of snow out of this like the Euro, Canadian, and NAM are showing. Not a strong system at all. All of the models are showing the low staying above 1010 MB. Only thing that it has going for it is it's slow movement. Otherwise marginal temps, rates etc will hurt amounts.

I believe It really has more to do so with the qpf output and longevity more so than the strength of the system. Not saying that any one location will get 12" but its not out of the question.

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You should just link the image url directly (using the square "image" icon in the toolbar) so the image is displayed in your post.

Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z UK...  This run has the best precip from the main upper energy kinda pivoting around the middle of Iowa.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012112_120_5660_220.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Help? I thought this was pretty direct other than downloading an image and than sharing. Just asking....

 

What you've been doing is posting the link to the website url.  There's nothing wrong with that.  However, to directly show the image in your post (if that's what you want to do) you want to right click on the image itself and "copy image address".  Then click on the square image icon (directly under the emoji icon) and paste the image url.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Any idea on what kind of precip?? 

 

While I don't have access to the 950 mb temp, the UK surface temp never rises above freezing in Cedar Rapids, which likely means it's all or nearly-all snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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