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1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


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We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

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The GEFS has been very stable, showing very little change from run to run.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6z EC and Mean

1580104800-1UDUAkePPw8.png

1580104800-tp2vFA4eTU4.png

 

Euro, GEM, ICON all have/are trending much better around here. I haven't been invested in this until now, but that may be changing with some models getting me back in the game  ;)  Especially like that latest UK looking wetter (not mostly liquid but snow here hopefully). 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_120.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_132.png

 

Hawkeye beat me to the comment, but was going to say how stubborn GEFS has been. Not budging. Keeps the sig snowfall west and refuses to baby-step it eastward like other models seem to be doing. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My enthusiasm last night was short lived.  Another miss.  Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events.  Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop.  

 

Sadly CNEWx, you're one of our regular posters living on the edges of the Sub and I believe in a different "zone" from most of us. When you do well, we rarely join you, and vice-versa

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This NWS snow forecast is pretty reasonable.  3-6" total sounds about right.

 

EOzOVjiU8AA4tSI.jpg

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro keeps digging the upper low farther south.  Two runs ago it was northeast KS, then last night southeast KS, now it's nw AR.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For Eastern Iowa, looks like 18+ hours of light snow starting tomorrow afternoon ending Thursday AM, then a bit of a break.  Now the Euro is sliding further south with the system Thursday though.  Just glancing the south half of the state really.  Then strengthens a bit more on Friday morning.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Euro looks to add only 1-2" in Eastern Iowa from Thursday PM into Friday AM after tomorrows system moves out.  So if the Euro is right, the bulk of the snow we see form this will be with wave 1 tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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My enthusiasm last night was short lived. Another miss. Since December that has been the theme in Central Nebraska, with no more than a few nickel and dimers - 1-2" minor events. Oh well, I guess I don't have to scoop.

Don’t feel too bad. All we have had in Lincoln. Last week was our second biggest storm at 1.8” just under the 2.1 we had the month prior. We are sitting at 6.5 inches for the season.

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might wanna change the title to cut off low, since that's more of what this is.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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LOTs take

 

The first half of the event by early Friday morning looks to

produce a total of 1-2 inches east and 2-3.5 inches west, with

those totals most reflective of grassy surfaces given the long

duration. Again lighter rates and air temperatures should allow

for fairly effective treatment on roads, where totals look to be

less.

 

The "second half" of the event is when the system is deepening

and that`s why it may have a slightly different character. Also

given the low trajectory, the atmospheric wind field becomes more

northeasterly and then northerly, likely keeping precipitation

type as snow apart from the southeast half of the CWA during the

day Friday. If the mean model solution of forecast system

deepening time and track ends up being near correct, there should

be better upper level forcing and some mid-level baroclinicity

Friday afternoon into night to support at least occasional

moderate snow and potentially seeing a few to several inches

during that 18 hour period or so. While confidence on accumulating

snow for the CWA during that time is fairly high, amount details

are quite low for all the aforementioned reasons. Also the best

upper to mid-level forcing is not that persistent over the CWA in

current model solutions.

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I just don't see how CR is gonna get 11" of snow this week.  I mean bring it on, but I don't buy even half that to be honest.  I could see 2-3" tomorrow and 1-3" Thursday/Friday.  Best case scenario 3-6" total.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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I just don't see how CR is gonna get 11" of snow this week.  I mean bring it on, but I don't buy even half that to be honest.  I could see 2-3" tomorrow and 1-3" Thursday/Friday.  Best case scenario 3-6" total.  

No doubt, the totals are likely over done and not taking into account compaction/melting/etc.  I'm guessing widespread 4-6" (possible 8" localized) across N IL.  This stuff is going to be wet sticky snow which will certainly change the landscape and that's what I'm looking forward to seeing.

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Wow the gfs just tanked it all for the system going 3 overall.

 

The GFS likely has a poor handle on the thermodynamics of the system. I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Unless its right lol

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Man, 18z GFS ENS mean really revved up total accumulations for eastern Nebraska - went from a small blip of 2-3" by Saturday in yesterday's 18z mean to 7-8" now. 

 

Also looks to be the first run since yesterday's 18z that brought the >6" snows back south of the IL/WI border, pretty much a win-win between the two of those regions.

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12z Euro...

 

Certainly applaud the Euro's trends here in the Mitt. Getting that 6" line dangerously close. Even a low-ratio 2-4" would go well with the current base OTG. 

 

Edit:  Decided to read my office's pm update, and they seem to be more enthusiastic than a few days ago. 

 

 

 

A consensus of the deterministic runs/ensemble means indicate QPF

amounts of 0.25"-0.50" are likely Friday into Saturday. If most or

all of this stays snow, we are expecting low snow to liquid ratios

on the order of 6:1 to 9:1 or so. Thus, snow accumulations drawn out

over a 24-36 hour period could amount to 2"-4" potentially. Any rain

mixing in would lower those amounts. Some travel impacts for the

Friday evening commute are not out of the question depending on how

this plays out.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Note the different time-stamps (and ratios) make these non-comparable:

 

12z

 

20200121 12z Euro KCH Snowfall_h126.png

 

18z

 

20200121 18z Euro 10-1 Snowfall_h90.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Clinton,

 

Love that EURO run. I think we have a cold surge later Thursday also which will hopefully get us down into the upper 20’s while that snow hits.

The Kansas side of the metro may sneak out 2 inches or so tomorrow but that front you mentioned will help deliver the goods Thur-Friday,

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00z NAM is way south with the main upper low, is a total whiff for Iowa.  Seriously???

 

This has to be a joke.

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z NAM is way south with the main upper low, is a total whiff for Iowa.  Seriously???

 

This has to be a joke.

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

 

NOAA/WPC sure liking Iowa

 

20200121 prb_72hsnow_50prcntil_latestf072.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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