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We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

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00z ICON precip

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_34.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Would have been nice if this system was working w true arctic air instead of stale arctic cold. Nevertheless, it will be a wet snow that will stick to everything and make for a beautiful postcard pic.

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Haven’t followed this much at all so I was surprised to see a WAA issued a bit ago for snow and freezing rain.

Your in the spot where you get at least a piece of everything this year. How much are you looking at?

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Your in the spot where you get at least a piece of everything this year. How much are you looking at?

Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory.

 

Good luck to you down there buddy!

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Looks like 1” or less plus minor ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch. I think the fact that this is happening right before the morning commute led to the advisory.

 

Good luck to you down there buddy!

Thanks, and I bet your right.  Thursday and Friday look to be the action days down here.

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GFS is still rain, but also still farther north and solidly wet across Iowa.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_17.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Canadian

 

gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Seems like sleet is mixing in now. Ice on top of ice, and it's struggle to walk even walk on pavement. I'm not sure exactly how the morning commute will be, I would think sitting at 34-35 for several hours would help a lot. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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You guys can keep the ice.  The ice from the last storm made enough of a mess on the pavement.  It is taking quite a bit of effort to scrape it off.

 

00z UK...  The non-NAM models are at least getting the second wave of snow up into southeast Iowa.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020012200_102_5660_220.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro... another model trending toward the second wave of snow only reaching up into southeastern Iowa.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here?

That probably isn't covering the entire storm. This will be going into Saturday in northern IL.

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LOT is saying only 1-2” for Chicago. I see all these maps and am v confused. Is the warm air going to ruin things over here?

That's just for the 1st initial WAA snows that are developing out west and heading here late tonight into tomorrow.  The main show begins Friday-Sat as the secondary, juicier wave rotates up from the GOM up into the Lower Lakes.  We may have to deal with some RN mixing in on Friday afternoon, esp in the city, but some of us out farther west may stay all snow.  These ULL systems almost always throw surprises and as they have a mind of their own.  Should be an interesting few days around these parts.

 

With that in mind, here is what the 00z Euro/Ukie is showing...I'm wondering if dynamic cooling will play a role here with these heavier bands rotating/pivoting into our area on Friday.

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It's conceivable, ORD may double it's current January snowfall total (5.9") from this one system.  One of the concerns I have for the metro and for Cook/Lake counties is for the precip to changeover to RN during Friday afternoon as some warmer air aloft tries to pump northward.  Some of the higher rez models show this while most of the W/NW burbs stay mostly SN throughout the entirety of the event.  Nonetheless, this will be an interesting few days watching radar trends and how the secondary surge of moisture gets pulled up and rotated into the MW/Lower Lakes.

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MKX has an interesting discussion- seems as if they are being very tentative on things for Friday into Saturday, this seems a good explanation of why:

 

“Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that

lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with

the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further

south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into

southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that

said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a

good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR

Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over

the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and

this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features

phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted

the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are

currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger

lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2

day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down.

This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the

phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how

guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles.

Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these

changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow

amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering

uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in

on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold

onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards.

 

Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer

air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be

such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow.

The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a

deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do

think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have

nudged values down slightly but this would still support a

rain/snow mix.”

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Already have a problem this morning, forecast temps this morning for KC was expected to be around 29-30 degrees when the precip. arrives. We warmed up to 37 overnight...darn it.

I am at 31.  Lets see if your temps drop as the precip starts, I don't think we get much today anyway the models have most of our accum coming tomorrow night and Friday.

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There are more light rain and freezing rain reports in central/western Iowa this morning than snow reports.

 

The 06z NAM came back nw some with the second wave after the 00z Iowa miss.  Hopefully, this morning's runs hold serve.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snowfall 1-3" still looks good for my area.

I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

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I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

 

Yeah, some models show exactly that. With the extremely marginal thermals, we could all go down in flames but this is one time I would not want to be along a lakeshore area.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I hope you're right buddy. I got a bad feeling about this one though. I think the E/SE flow off the unfrozen lakes Erie/St. Clair is going to be just enough to keep us rain while Oakland County does well. Again, hope I'm wrong but I've seen that scenario play out several times.

Yep, I was thinking about that as well. Sloppy system! No cold air to work w and here we are in the hard of Winter.

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Frz rain and sleet falling yuck!

 

But snow down to the bayous of LA???   :wacko:

 

20200122 14z CONUS Radar.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yep, I was thinking about that as well. Sloppy system! No cold air to work w and here we are in the heart of Winter.

 

What gave you a boost last weekend, may be the Grinch this time. Hopefully we all get lucky. That just hasn't been the theme of this winter tho. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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