Jump to content
The Weather Forums

1/22 - 1/25 Cut-Off ULL


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 530
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

We have a pretty good snowpack at this point.  

Here are a few pics. My liquid equivalent from 4" of snowfall was 0.42". A bit of it was melting when it started last eve so about 10:1 ratio. My core samples were a bit lower, but I don't always trus

I have thunder snow!  First time I've had this since Feb of 2011.

Posted Images

I was just underneath the heaviest returns of this event right where that little yellow blip on radar in N Cook...the snowfall rates were great and flakes were nice and big.  Snow is accumulating on all surfaces.  I'm sure tomorrow morning will have that snow globe effect.  Hopefully it doesn't switch-over to during the heaviest precip returns later tonight.

 

 

LOT.N0Q.20200124.0041.gif

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just underneath the heaviest returns of this event right where that little yellow blip on radar in N Cook...the snowfall rates were great and flakes were nice and big.  Snow is accumulating on all surfaces.  I'm sure tomorrow morning will have that snow globe effect.  Hopefully it doesn't switch-over to during the heaviest precip returns later tonight.

 

 

LOT.N0Q.20200124.0041.gif

Good luck down there Tom! Radar looking good. Let’s hope the thermals play nice.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good luck down there Tom! Radar looking good. Let’s hope the thermals play nice.

Agree!  So far, ORD has picked up 0.9" through 4:00pm...hopefully we can tack on another 5" and double our January total.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

First thing this morning, the HRRR was forecasting about 0.30" qpf in Cedar Rapids tonight/Friday.  The 18z run cut that to 0.15".  Since then, it has gradually ramped it back up.  The 00z run is up to nearly 0.40", with up to 0.50" in southeast Iowa.  It'd be nice if this was correct and not just a HRRR mirage.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_23.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

First thing this morning, the HRRR was forecasting about 0.30" qpf in Cedar Rapids tonight/Friday.  The 18z run cut that to 0.15".  Since then, it has gradually ramped it back up.  The 00z run is up to nearly 0.40", with up to 0.50" in southeast Iowa.  It'd be nice if this was correct and not just a HRRR mirage.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_23.png

If this is correct I will do very well, I know have a few slushy flakes starting to mix in.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

1.5" today and 2" on the ground. Side roads are once again a wreck and 90% of the snow today fell at above freezing. I have no idea how this city survived 55 inches of snow last winter if they can't keep up this year. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I measured right around 1" of new snow by midnight. So we probably gained back what had melted today. There's a decent band overhead currently. Just by eyeballing the snow on the ground it appears to be dryer than what fell yesterday, but I'm not 100% positive.

  • Like 1

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites

I fell asleep this evening and just woke up, so I missed the snow as it moved in.  Radar looks pretty good.  Better snow is about to move in.  The 00z Euro upped our precip to 0.35", so that seems to be a real trend.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I fell asleep this evening and just woke up, so I missed the snow as it moved in.  Radar looks pretty good.  Better snow is about to move in.  The 00z Euro upped our precip to 0.35", so that seems to be a real trend.

How's the snow coming down over by you?  Radar doesn't look to bad out in E IA.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nearly all the global models want to paint a bullseye of the heaviest precip over in N IL/SE WI.  Some of this qpf is plain rain from today, but then it switches over the SN after about 6:00pm in NE IL.  I've never seen a pivot of such an intense defo band the models are painting and the slow movement.  Gosh, I can't help but think what a difference it would make to have it just a few degrees colder!

 

I'd say there is about .40-.50 qpf of RN on the 00z Ukie before the switchovr happens.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Snowing in KC! Beautiful, snow sticking to everything!

 

34 degrees and not budging, slop fest. Just can’t get cold snows. Good thing it’s falling at night. Can’t even get it to fall below freezing when snowing.

 

If we were 25-28 degrees I believe we would have 4-5 on the ground. Instead, around 2 inches and likely another few inches to come.

 

I’ll take it, going to be a beautiful Friday.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprise, surprise...LOT's write up this morning is just what the doctor ordered and suggesting what I have been thinking all along.  These ULL's are notorious at throwing curve balls and last minute surprises.  Seems reasonable that my original call of 4-6" with local 8"+ reports are on point.

 

 

 

 

Overnight trends in numerical guidance supports
what appears to be an increasing potential for a potentially more
impactful period of snowfall later today and into tonight and
Saturday morning.



As is normally the case with closed and
cold upper lows--you never quite know what you`re going to get,
and surprises are a distinct possibility.


 

 

 

Some impressive wording coming out of LOT wrt to the developing defo zone across N IL...someone is going to get smashed!

 

 

 

However, given the
anticipation of the heaviest snow occurring later overnight Friday
into Saturday morning and a signal that isn`t quite coherent
enough for widespread 5-6+ inch amounts, opted to issue an
Advisory instead but will be mentioning the potential for some
localized overperformance with this event. Cross sections through
the developing TROWAL later this evening reveal lapse rates
upstairs approaching 8.5 C/km immediately near and above 600 mb,
which will support the rapid development of moderate to at times
heavy snowfall through the evening hours. Latest guidance
indicates exceptional vertical motions materializing through a
1000+ m dendritic growth zone this evening. This, combined with a
developing deep isothermal layer just under freezing with light
winds through the column supports the potential for some large
aggregated dendrites, possibly helping to hoist snowfall ratios
closer to 10:1 overnight.

 

 

As a result, LOT debated on whether to issue a WSW but instead they have gone with a WWA at the moment...To Be Continued....

 

 

 

Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
312 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOCALES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80...

ILZ006-013-014-022-241715-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.200125T0000Z-200126T0600Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-Will-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago,
Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, Round Lake Beach, Naperville,
Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison,
Chicago, Humboldt Park, Hyde Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Park,
Logan Square, Navy Pier, Joliet, and Bolingbrook
312 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected with a period of moderate to at times heavy
snowfall this evening and overnight. Total snow accumulations of
2 to 6 inches.
The potential exists for isolated totals in
excess of 6 inches, mainly away from the lake, before snow
tapers through Saturday morning and afternoon.
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprise, surprise...LOT's write up this morning is just what the doctor ordered and suggesting what I have been thinking all along.  These ULL's are notorious at throwing curve balls and last minute surprises.  Seems reasonable that my original call of 4-6" with local 8"+ reports are on point.

 

 

 

 

Some impressive wording coming out of LOT wrt to the developing defo zone across N IL...someone is going to get smashed!

 

 

 

As a result, LOT debated on whether to issue a WSW but instead they have gone with a WWA at the moment...To Be Continued....

Good luck my man, just woke up to a winter wonderland here.  Snow is falling and is sticking to everything with a temp of 32.  I have a solid 3 inches on the ground with several more still to come.  All the schools in the area are cancelled.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

1.5" today and 2" on the ground. Side roads are once again a wreck and 90% of the snow today fell at above freezing. I have no idea how this city survived 55 inches of snow last winter if they can't keep up this year.

We didn't survive last year either. Remember the shitshow after the blizzard?

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the better bands just passed over me again as it slowly pivots nw. and it's still snowing. Looks like it snowed all night and it's a winter wonderland outside. Not much wind either which is nice. I haven't taken another measurement yet.

  • Like 3

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.8" here overnight and a nice band has, once again, moved over us.  Flakes have grown and the rate has increased after a lull first thing this morning.  I am very happy with how this 2-wave system worked out.  We are going to end up with almost exactly what the GEFS and EPS mean maps were showing for days (6+").

 

As Clinton said, it is very picturesque with light wind and snow stuck to everything.

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.8" here overnight and a nice band has, once again, moved over us. Flakes have grown and the rate has increased after a lull first thing this morning. I am very happy with how this 2-wave system worked out. We are going to end up with almost exactly what the GEFS and EPS mean maps were showing for days.

 

As Clinton said, it is very picturesque with light wind and snow stuck to everything.

Wow what's your event total so far?
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow what's your event total so far?

 

About 5.8" for the two waves.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Models are crapping out the eastern Iowa bands over the next few hours, but they actually keep the enhanced band over central Iowa going through afternoon.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

3.4” in downtown Iowa City.

  • Like 4

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a pretty good band of snow from nw of Cedar Rapids down to south-central IA.  It actually strengthened as it moved away from me.  I don't think I'll get much more.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a 4" report from North Liberty, too, plus 3.8" in Mt. Vernon.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...