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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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Can't trust any model at this point but just looking at the history of this winter so far I can probably tell you that not much is going to come from the early week system except a miserable mix of nothing. Keep pushing the good stuff off till next or wait another 2 weeks and we'll get something is getting really old. Ready for this crap to end. 

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.

 

That run shows an example of some of the EPS members that hold back the secondary wave. IMO, this is prob a viable outcome.

It also strengthened quickly after it crossed the Mississippi River and cut north, similar to how other storm behaved earlier this season.  Just further SE this time.

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Decent chance at a daily record warm low temp here on Sunday. Current record is 31F. Highs on Sunday in the low 40s. I’m actually looking forward to it, regardless of how much of a dent it puts in the 8” snowpack. My gutters are frozen solid despite the roof salt I’m using. Gotta get them cleared before the temps crash again next week and things refreeze.

 

Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

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The UKMET has a band of snow crossing Nebraska, Northern Kansas, into Iowa from hour 126 on through hour 144 and ongoing.  I'm going to start looking at this model more closely now that it is on Pivotal Weather.  It looks similar to the ICON, whereas the CMC and GFS are further south.  Fun things to look at for next Monday and Tuesday.  Colder weather looks to be a sure thing, it is where this band of snow develops that will be interesting.

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12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

 

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Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

Glad your ice issue is taken care. I hope mine doesn’t turn into a major issue. I’m headed up on the roof on Sunday. I think that inch of rain we got right before Christmas really caused the problem when it froze. I did hear about this being the cloudiest Jan on record! Looks like we’ll keep the streak going for a few more days too.

 

Wow, I forgot last years PV happened on this date. I think my low temp got down to -22F here in the urban heat island. Now we’re talking record warm minimums a year later. Crazy stuff.

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Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

 

 

Wow, I forgot last years PV happened on this date. I think my low temp got down to -22F here in the urban heat island. Now we’re talking record warm minimums a year later. Crazy stuff.

 

Year ago tommorow, I took off from Fargo airport at about 10am and actual temp of -33f to land in Phoenix at 66f, temp difference of 99f.  Flew back to Fargo Sunday evening and landed in a snowstorm, had to stay the night in Fargo and drive home Monday.

 

I remember thinking mid January of last year how warm and relatively little snow the winter had been up to that point.  Then the hammer dropped with crazy cold and snow for the next 8 weeks.

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Actually digs and cuts north up the Apps and hits SMI nicely.  

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Jaster, start a thread amigo, what are ya waiting for. Looks like your area gets pounded w the secondary defo. Chicago does really good as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

One small step for model....one Major Step for SMI score!   ;)  Can't resist having fun with the bone tossed my way (for one run anyway). Warming up my Peanuts comic image for next Euro run.. :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Jaster, start a thread amigo, what are ya waiting for. Looks like your area gets pounded w the secondary defo. Chicago does really good as well.

 

See post above as to why I can't trust a run or two of the Euro/GFS/GEM/ICON/UKMET, etc..  The 17-18th storm was less "timing dependent" for us than this 2-pc scenario. I do think we'll have some energy moving thru tho, just to be clear

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z EPS expanded & shifted S/SE with the main snow shield and is targeting a lot of the GL's region and points just west.

 

B)  Nice trends amigo! Keep 'em coming

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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See post above as to why I can't trust a run or two of the Euro/GFS/GEM/ICON/UKMET, etc..  The 17-18th storm was less "timing dependent" for us than this 2-pc scenario. I do think we'll have some energy moving thru tho, just to be clear

B)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS is backing off on the cold.  Shocking. 

 

Could you be a little more vague wrt when? Thx

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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More than likely bc the MJO no longer is heading into the warmer phases and staying in the "null" phase and possibly re-emerge in Phase 3???

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

Difficult image to read, but looks to clip the corner of P3, but then a very low-amp P4?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS is backing off on the cold.  Shocking. 

Not the EPS as it turned significantly colder overall from the western GL's and points west.  Quiet the battle zone setting up shop across the Sub which will keep things pretty active and interesting.

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12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

29.12z Euro totals across S/SWMI actually come via (3) events. This Sat looks LES/CF/Clipper-ish, then the 1st wave on Tue-ish, and the final and most interesting 2nd storm wave on Thur-ish.  So, it's not one big storm fwiw

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not the EPS as it turned significantly colder overall from the western GL's and points west.  Quite the battle zone setting up shop across the Sub which will keep things pretty active and interesting.

 

Classic Feb scenario of late, eh??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Jaster, start a thread amigo, what are ya waiting for. Looks like your area gets pounded w the secondary defo. Chicago does really good as well.

 

We're about 5.5 days out on the Euro from wave 1 getting it's act together and producing snow on the west end of the Sub. Getting close to the range when a thread is appropriate imho  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:rolleyes:  Cannot seem to shake this S Lake Michigan "bubble of warmth" during our winter events this season. It's like the CF settles south everywhere else (even eastward here), but not in that bathtub region. 

 

UKie at h144

 

20200129 12z_UK 2m Temps_h144.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We're about 5.5 days out on the Euro from wave 1 getting it's act together and producing snow on the west end of the Sub. Getting close to the range when a thread is appropriate imho  ;)

 

Should check out the 18z GFS.  Looking good so far.  Lot's of agreement between models.  May be thread worthy. 

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