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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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Clinton-your area looks very good w this system.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z runs were good but the 18z GFS was north.  To early to tell, but it looks like some of us will get a good storm.  Your area looks good so far hope the trends continue.

 

Yep, 18z GFS back to the 1 stronger and north wave scenario. Let's see what the 0z suite is thinking..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ICON focusing on stronger 2nd wave. At h168 looking like might be good for SMI. 998 mb coming NE thru OHV

 

Edit - Strange run. Has 2 SLP's in the OHV within 12 hrs of each other. First is all rain Wed evening/night. 2nd looking great for Chicago at EOR but might be another rainer here. Lots to sort out yet. Could be fun to watch unfold.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep. And the 1st two are rain or whiff and the 3rd looking warm for mby...Pass! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ ICON 

 

The first 1" of the two shown here is from this weekend's questionable dusting which might just be white rain per temps (36F in grid). Need that final wave to stay south and have some cold air involved at least.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

Can't wait for my next warm 2" drenching. New month, new drenchings on tap. Paybacks for great winters are a b*tch

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro holds steady and bucks the N trend of the GFS-- also this is total snow and includes Fridays event -- Kucheras would be higher...sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro...the big difference in tonight's Euro run is the second piece of energy that comes out of the Rockies has decided to break off a smaller piece while the main energy digs south into N Mexico/TX.  This results into a southern Low that tracks up from the Gulf states and rides up the Apps towards OH/PA a couple days later.  Another plausible solution in this complex weather pattern.

 

 

 

 

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00z EPS/GEFS...the models seem to be struggling on the idea if this will be more or less a strung out wave or an actual SLP that runs up the frontal boundary.  Needless to say, it certainly looks like there will be a system to track so it prob should be thread worthy.

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_168.png

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_168.png

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Over the past 7-10 days, the models were sniffing out a potential SSW event during the opening days of Feb but there was some doubt it would indeed happen given the strength of the PV this season.  It appears there is no doubt about it, as all the models are showing a rather significant warming event at 10mb to cross over the Pole into Canada.

 

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_11.png

 

 

Once this burst passes on by, there seems to be growing indication that a second and potentially stronger/disruptive event may be brewing during the second week of the month over Eurasia.  Will this create a Cross Polar Flow???

 

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

Last night's JMA weeklies came in and are in agreement with the CFSv2 weeklies for Week 2 but diverge in the pattern for Week 3-4.  Here is the Week 2 forecast...as you can see, it is suggesting a wet/active pattern along with a cooler, but not to cold, which would be a favorable wintry set up.

 

Y202001.D2912_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202001.D2912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Week 3-4 it fires up the Aleutian Ridge which pumps the SER like we saw last year.  The question is, does this ridge fire up in the N PAC or NE PAC???  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later today.

 

 

Y202001.D2912_gl2.png

 

Y202001.D2912_gl0.png

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Feb is looking very active on my extended. Me likes a lot! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I would like to propose a new rule regarding the GFS. I don't know what to call it. But the rule is

 

As the GFS reaches the end of the forecast, the likelihood of it showing a large storm approaches 1.

 

Anything past 5 days is laughable on that model.  It's always a blizzard at 300 hours and -20 at 384 here at the end of every run since December.  It's long range has earned an F- grade this year.  

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Yes, you are correct just like you have been with all your other "6" posts.

 

"The sky is blue" (when we see it lol)

 

..another shocking truth in our wx world

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LR tidbit from a Met at LOT

 

ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February.  

 

Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here.

 

Chicagoans seem to perking up, at least for a portion of Feb. I think wks3&4 are a big "?" tho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Last night's 00z EPS is about as wintry as I've seen it all season long for many of us on here, including those farther south in the KC/MO regions.  The period between the 10th-15th has real potential to become a big producer in the snow dept for the majority of our Sub.  Even though the AO/NAO are going to sky rocket into (+) territory, the saving grace will be the (-) EPO pattern along with a slightly (-) PNA.  As was mentioned by the LOT met above, which I have opined, there will be a window of more opportunity for those of us east/south compared to last Feb as I believe a hyper active period is forthcoming.

 

 

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I took some time this morning trying to figure out where the pattern may be heading throughout this month. All signals are pointing towards a SW Flow pattern which paints an interesting picture for the majority of our Sub Forum. Unfortunately, the snow geese in the East may not fair well in this type of pattern. Could you imagine how abysmal winter wx enthusiasts feel out East along the EC??? I don't even want to think about how desperate they are for seeing some winter wx.

 

 

On the other hand, our Sub will likely become a benefactor of what is transpiring across the N PAC as we roll through the rest of this month. It is becoming likely that "Shades of Feb '19" are in the cards and I'll show you what I'm thinking.

 

 

Take a look at these maps below of an active storm track that is orientated in a SW/NE direction across the Aleutian Islands. There is literally a storm train lining up with back-to-back-to-back systems lining up and suggesting an action packed period between Feb 20th - 29th. I can’t stop to think how impressive this situation may very well set up across the heartland. As long as we can maintain a -EPO pattern and the PNA doesn't head lower than -1/-2 standard deviation, I think a lot of us on here will be pretty happy in the snow dept.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_11.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_31.png

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_46.png

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February and March look like they will hopefully deliver. This could put me to near average snowfall or even above by the end of the season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Can't wait for Tuesday, might get to see some sun and blue sky.  

Aside from those downstream of the great lakes, its a cruel twist of irony that the most active winter weather patterns seem to bring the most clear skies as well.  The storms and fronts roll through so quickly, as opposed to the endless bank of gray skies over the region most of the last couple weeks/month.

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GFS and EC have been showing rather consistantly our next big event to track 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

 

I think the pattern setting up around the 10th will feature a multi-day, multi-wave event and therefore producing a potpourri of precip types across our Sub.  The thermal boundary coupled with an active STJ is going to be an eventful week of weather the following week.

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GFS and EC have been showing rather consistantly our next big event to track 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

I like that low down south positioned in Mexico.

 

My extended forecast is very snowy. February looks like it will be proving the goods (hopefully). Next week and the following week looks very interesting.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After the early to midweek system, the entire rest of the Euro run is a dud.

 

At day 10, the GFS and Euro are very different.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I’m kind of excited for the brief warm spell this weekend with highs approaching 60. It’s going feel like summer, especially with the lack of sun lately.

 

I'm worried we miss out on a lot of the warmth here in Omaha. Might be too far east on Saturday to get real warm, and then on Sunday the models have been showing the front slipping through pretty early in the day where we might be too far north to get very warm.

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Wow, cant believe that our last month of Meteorological Winter is almost here (tomorrow).

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow, cant believe that our last month of Meteorological Winter is almost here (tomorrow).

 

Could be some chilly air paying a visit in a couple weeks if this is close to correct:

 

20200131 18z GFS h306 2m Temps.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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