gimmesnow Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 I sure hope the extended Accuweather forecast is wrong. It has me closing out the month of February with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with rain and ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Some good stuff in LOTS AFD Guidance has been consistent showing a closed upper low across thesouthwest states early this coming week with a strong (165+ kt)upper jet in advance of this over the eastern U.S./Great Lakeswhere the polar jet and subtropical jet will have someinteraction. It appears that if the upper low can track far enoughnorth into the middle of the country with this jet that active,that it would support an opening, negatively-tilted wave potentialand a deepening low-level response. While the GFS and Canadianmodels don`t show this until mainly past our area, the EC has beenslightly more consistent and further west. It should be noted the12Z EC ensemble, while of course some noteworthy spread, has amean solution that supports the 12Z deterministic EC and doesbring its broad solution snow swath over the CWA. Closed upperlows can often be further west and/or show slower transitioning toa progressive wave in such a scenario. If so, certainly apotential for a developing deformation area of snow toward thewestern Great Lakes region, but the mean solution of all guidanceis presently a little further east. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Looks like some real cold air arrives by the end of next week. Highs potentially in the teens for a day. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Attm, 24F under mostly cloudy Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 8, 2020 Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Not buying the Euro at this range - to me the GFS late this winter IMBY has beaten the EURO. I don't see nearly -10F with little snow (fresh) on the ground in mid FEB as the Euro shows. Over doing the cold which leads to over doing any kind of storm. GFS is flaming trash, but it's led the way several times this winter. Euro isn't King and is just as bad as the GFS. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 18z EC gets beefy from KC to Chicago to Grand Rapids. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The donut hole is pretty prominent but sadly seen before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The GFS continues to get better. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 GEM looks better also 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 00z Euro nearly identical to the 12z. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Fired up a storm thread for the pre-Valentine's Day storm... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2179-212-214-lower-lakes-cutter/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Whoever has at least 5"+ of snow OTG for Valentine's Day across the Upper MW/MW/W GL's...I'm sure they will be bundled up next a coozy fire later that night! Brrrr..... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Currently at 30F under mostly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Brutally cold air follows the midweek potential snowstorm. Low temps will be near subzero readings w all of that snowcover already otg. Highs will be frigid! Its short-lived though. High temps rebound quickly into the 20s and 30s and even some low 40s by the following week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 A good friend of mine emailed me this pic from his house yesterday in Highpoint, NJ 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The cold has once again disappeared for here (actually fine with me) this week as we have a one day shot of cold air on Thursday with highs in the 20s then it warms right back up. The rest of the week has highs in the 30s and 40s. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Cold front has barreled through here. Wiinds gusting over 50 mph with a brown ground. No precipitation in sight and the cold keeps disappearing in the extended forecasts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Clouds are increasing along w temps at 31F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 The cold has once again disappeared for here (actually fine with me) this week as we have a one day shot of cold air on Thursday with highs in the 20s then it warms right back up. The rest of the week has highs in the 30s and 40s.Giant yawn. I can’t see a way this feb isn’t going to end up well above average. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Giant yawn. I can’t see a way this feb isn’t going to end up well above average. If next week's system passes south of Iowa, the entire month may be a bust. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Bring on spring. Ready to do some fishing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaWX82 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Sad thing is we’re only a few months away before you start actually reading posts on here making such absurd callsIt’s funny because it’s true! Think spring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Attm, cloudy w temps at 30F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looks like I’m getting a week or 2 of winter. Currently 28 with moderate snow falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 GFS the next 16 days looks uneventful. #earlyspring I was hoping for a big FEB. Maybe it will look different in the next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Sad thing is we’re only a few months away before you start actually reading posts on here making such absurd calls The anticipation is always better than the actual season. Just the way it is, lol.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Currently snowing and a temp of 30F. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaWX82 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Large swaths of the mid south are getting 5-8” of rain over the next several days. No thanks, I’ll gladly take my cold, dry, and boring. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 After next week, models seem to warm us up into the 40s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Thinking of Spring?? I started a Spring/Summer thread... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2181-2020-spring-summer-discussion/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Light snow and freezing fog this morning. Quite a winter scene with the fresh snow from yesterday and the fog sticking to the trees this morning. The arctic front mid-week means business. After a high off 33F on Wed, lows Wed night drop to -7. A high of 3F on Thurs and a low of -13F that night. Too bad I’m jetting off to Miami on Wed to enjoy mid 80s for a few days. My pasty white winter skin needs some sun. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Temps stand a chance of going below zero w fresh snowcover Thursday night. That will be the first time this Winter season also. Short-lived cold snap as temps rebound into the 40s by early next week. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Heard lots of birds this morning for the first time. It's frosty and in the 20s, but with no wind and a sun that is getting stronger it felt pretty nice out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Models are steadily going more positive with the EPO. Now it looks like little more than a brief dip into negative territory. It just doesn't want to stay negative this winter. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 Models are steadily going more positive with the EPO. Now it looks like little more than a brief dip into negative territory. It just doesn't want to stay negative this winter. This season has been a big learning curve for me. Who would have thought that based on the N PAC SST pattern we would see Alaska as the magnet for cold. Back in 2011-12, the NE PAC was cold, not warm like this year and this year we have seen the same pattern up that way. It really through a curve ball to every single long range forecaster this year. Not only that, but the lack of any sustained blocking (which was likely the culprit all season long) was the writing on the wall to a torch winter. #lessonlearned 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 The 12z GFS has two rain events following this week's brief cold. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2020 Report Share Posted February 10, 2020 I think that once we enter March, we will have a few BN days w brief snow chances here and there, but there on after, especially by mid month, we should be done w any meaningful snowevents, which is fine by me. Then again, who knows, right!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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