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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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The sky is cloudy here with clear sky just to my east. Because of that it is warmer here than at the airport at this time it is +9 here and the last report was +7 at GRR. The low at GRR so far has been +6 and that will be the new low for the winter of 2019/20 season. There was a trace of new snow here last night. Officially at GRR yesterdays snow fall was 1.3" that gives Grand Rapids 11.7" for February. Since December 1st the snow fall is 37.5" and for the season it is 44.3" and that is well below average as of this date. Yesterday AM there was 3" on the ground at GRR and this morning here at my house there is 4.6" on the ground.

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Gary Lezak and the LRC, he’s on the blog stating we forecasted this storm 55 days ago....yet, on his local forecast on Friday last week, it read, “no major storms through next week” his web forecast said the same. Yet, all along the LRC knew. BS!

 

For years now, all the LRC pushers, I have asked for a week by week forecast for K.C. after the pattern sets up, to date, not one has offered that up! I don’t think it can come in at 35 percent accurate, I think I can guess and score at 35 percent.

 

If the LRC knows like some claim, can you tell me if KC,

 

Will have a wet spring. A cool spring or a warm spring

What will happen on the 4th of July, Memorial Day, Father’s Day, Mother’s d Day,

 

Hot summer?

 

Drought?

 

So many LRC pushers claimed that this would be a cold winter. Why? It was because cycle one had record fall cold in it and if the pattern is cycling, sure enough, it will be much colder when winter is here. Go back and read the comments...

 

What happens when the LRC doesn’t behave? No discussion on that, we just move onto the next match we can find to help satisfy the narrative.

 

Somebody, please, to help verify this LRC tool, will you give me a forecast for KC using the LRC.

 

Warmer weeks

Colder weeks

When will storms hit

How many more snows

I think I feel the same way about the LRC as you.  The more I here about the LRC the more it sounds like the extended range forecasts that the Farmers Almanac puts out.  The forecasts are so vague for such a large area that they can claim accuracy from just about any result.

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Attm, 3F under deep blue skies along w a nice snowcover. It waited all Winter long to get this cold. Unreal! Mid February to get to near 0F. This was a weird Winter season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like late next week, some mild air returns. Temps climb into the mid to upper 40s. Met Spring will be closeby and will be welcoming us by that time. That should feel nice. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From everything I'm hearing, it's going to be a mild end to February.  I feel like we've hardly had a winter.  Usually winter season seems to go on forever.  Doesn't seem to be the case this year.  2 weeks from March!

I agree. Case in point, look at this frigid airmass that we have now. Where was this a month or 2 ago. Now, its almost Met Spring. People are getting ready for severe weather. Another i.e., take a look at next week BS storm. Cannot even provide us a real good snowstorm (spread the Wealth Storm that is, like some express on here), instead, its going to be rain, right after the heels of this frigid air. That goes to show you that this pattern continues to be not good. I got real lucky w the 2 past snowstorms (Vet' Days major snowstorm and Jan 17-18th snowstorm)  that my area received, otherwise, I would have been somewhere in the 15inch range or so right now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We went down below freezing last night and currently are at 33*  with a 29* wind chill.

 

Dallas freeways have been snarled all morning with crashes from Black Ice. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Happy Valentines Day to my weather buddies!

 

Thanks for all your friendship.

 

:wub:

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Saw this post on another site. Crazy strong storms in the north Atlantic right now...

 

This is downright the craziest surface analysis I've ever seen; we have:
  • A 933hPa low sitting over the North Atlantic;
  • A new 941hPa core right next to it deepening to 929hPa in 24h;
  • Another system coming in from the SW at 972hPa, forecast at 917hPa (!!) in 24h
Three days from now, pretty much the entire North Atlantic at middle latitudes will see waves of 5-15m high and locally even more. Just imagine how much energy is being released onto the ocean surface to do that.
You can find the latest analyses here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php
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The low here at my house was +8.1° but officially at the airport when no one was looking it dropped down to +4 and that has a good chance of being the coldest low for the winter of 2019/20 and if that is the case it will be one of the warmest lowest winter lows here at Grand Rapids  A list of winters with warmer lowest that I can find are 1920/21 and 1937/38.

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Saw this post on another site. Crazy strong storms in the north Atlantic right now...

 

This is downright the craziest surface analysis I've ever seen; we have:
  • A 933hPa low sitting over the North Atlantic;
  • A new 941hPa core right next to it deepening to 929hPa in 24h;
  • Another system coming in from the SW at 972hPa, forecast at 917hPa (!!) in 24h
Three days from now, pretty much the entire North Atlantic at middle latitudes will see waves of 5-15m high and locally even more. Just imagine how much energy is being released onto the ocean surface to do that.
You can find the latest analyses here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

 

 

So that's where our historic strong storms ended up. Great to know... :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like by next weekend, the melting starts. Spring fever arrives as temps flirt w 50F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, 21F w sunny skies. Cannot even stay in the teens for highs. :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like by next weekend, the melting starts. Spring fever arrives as temps flirt w 50F.

 

49F is neither growing season warm, nor spring temps really. Anything 50F and below happens during winter pretty regularly around here tbh. My threshold for "warm" begins with mid-50s. That and above I'd call unusual warmth during DJF at our LAT in SMI.. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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*****. I'm still here.

 

Did you move back east from SD by any chance?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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49F is neither growing season warm, nor spring temps really. Anything 50F and below happens during winter pretty regularly around here tbh. My threshold for "warm" begins with mid-50s. That and above I'd call unusual warmth during DJF at our LAT in SMI.. 

Who said anything about growing season?  Its 50F fricken degrees in February. Average highs are still in the mid 30s or so. Anything 50F or better in this LAT during Winter is considered Spring fever in my threshold.

 

 Btw: Check out Icon?! :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I’ve been in Austin Texas all month and seeing you guys in the negatives makes me not want to come back lmao. Sounds brutal. It stormed here the other morning and it just makes me want it to be spring and summer already!

It's been comparatively dull here.  Some cold, some rain, but generally a boring winter. 

Hope you enjoyed Austin.  And hope you made it a bit west into Hill Country. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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After what has been a very quite and boring period for our members out west, I think the best is yet to come for those out that way.  Is Bowling Ball season about to begin???  The pattern is looking ripe for some slow movers to begin tracking across the central Sub during the last week of Feb and well into March.  Based on what I'm seeing in the N PAC/East Asia and the cycling wx pattern, March Madness is starting early and often this year.  As mentioned in previous posts, the period between the 24th-27th is likely going to highlight one of the main signature storms in this years LRC and both the EPS/GEFS are beginning to show some members with larges scale slow movers traversing our Sub.  How much blocking will be present??  How hard will they cut or not???  These are the trends we will likely be tracking over the next week or so as we enter a very quite period, ableit, a bit chilly for some of us mid next week.

 

The trends over the past few days on the EPS has been growing an increasingly large and expansive snow shield out west and into the W GL's.  FWIW, the model has been steadily showing more blocking across Canada so this snow shield IMO will likely be shifting in the days to come.  I will say, with confidence, that the central Plains members are in the hot zone for a potential significant winter storm.  Will our members in the MW also get a taste???  Hard to say right now as I'd like to see more blocking show up like the GEFS are indicating.

 

The difference between the GEFS & EPS for Week 2 are pretty obvious....IMO, something in the middle is probably going to be close to what happens as we finish off met Winter.  Late season rally???

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_384.png

 

 

 

 

1.png

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After what has been a very quite and boring period for our members out west, I think the best is yet to come for those out that way. Is Bowling Ball season about to begin??? The pattern is looking ripe for some slow movers to begin tracking across the central Sub during the last week of Feb and well into March. Based on what I'm seeing in the N PAC/East Asia and the cycling wx pattern, March Madness is starting early and often this year. As mentioned in previous posts, the period between the 24th-27th is likely going to highlight one of the main signature storms in this years LRC and both the EPS/GEFS are beginning to show some members with larges scale slow movers traversing our Sub. How much blocking will be present?? How hard will they cut or not??? These are the trends we will likely be tracking over the next week or so as we enter a very quite period, ableit, a bit chilly for some of us mid next week.

 

The trends over the past few days on the EPS has been growing an increasingly large and expansive snow shield out west and into the W GL's. FWIW, the model has been steadily showing more blocking across Canada so this snow shield IMO will likely be shifting in the days to come. I will say, with confidence, that the central Plains members are in the hot zone for a potential significant winter storm. Will our members in the MW also get a taste??? Hard to say right now as I'd like to see more blocking show up like the GEFS are indicating.

 

The difference between the GEFS & EPS for Week 2 are pretty obvious....IMO, something in the middle is probably going to be close to what happens as we finish off met Winter. Late season rally???

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_384.png

These maps haven’t been seen around this area in 2 months. The next 8 weeks typically produce our biggest storms and blizzards in Central Nebraska. Thanks for sharing Tom.

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