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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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This time of year, if the pattern is not conducive for snow, I begin to get spring fever.  I'm really liking the 2+ days well into the 50s at the end of the Euro run.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Who said anything about growing season?  Its 50F fricken degrees in February. Average highs are still in the mid 30s or so. Anything 50F or better in this LAT during Winter is considered Spring fever in my threshold.

 

 Btw: Check out Icon?! :blink:

Easy there buddy. Guess I missed the word fever. Thought you were calling for spring next weekend at only 50F lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Easy there buddy. Guess I missed the word fever. Thought you were calling for spring next weekend at only 50F lol

:lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its not a bad looking day outside from what I am seeing from my homeoffice window, although, haven't been outside yet, my temp reads 22F. Might go play some Pool tournament later, if time permits. In any case, lets see what happens w the rest of Feb. Will we get a blockbuster at all this Winter? Could it happen in March? So many questions that need to get answered. Anyways, catch y'all laterz. Busy day today on tap. Hopefully, models go w Icon.  B)  ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cold and windy winter's day here with drifting snow at my sister's farm near Frankenmuth

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Euro continues to be pretty amped late in the month.  If this pans out, we may have a shot at 60º by day 11.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just listened to JB's Saturday Summary at Weather Bell.  Big changes coming as a much colder and stormier pattern begins to evolve for much of the US.  Yep, you guessed it - just two weeks away.  All we have to do is just wait another two weeks and we're going to have all the snow and cold that we can handle! 

 

How many times this winter have we heard that line?  Actually, I would like to see that come to pass, but I'm not holding my breath.

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After bottoming out at 3F overnight, temps have been on the rise all day reaching 32F at 9 pm. Nonetheless, with a gusty S wind it's actually been one of the most legit winter days all season without the usual puddles and drip-drip-drip so common. Where was this during Dec and most of January when I really wanted it? There was a burst of SN/IP giving about 0.2" and some ZR causing road crews to be active. Further N near Saginaw it looked like mini-bliz conditions at times between the squalls and BLSN. Even some decent drifts across the side roads. Unfortunately, if all we are looking at here is more 2" or under events, I'm honestly bored with this winter at this point. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"Save The Best For Last"...that was the title I came up with this Sunday morning as I prep for this LR post.  In fact, the title of this Thread may indeed be a sign of what is to come. 

 

 

It's been a difficult winter season for many of us snow enthusiasts, except for those of you up north who began seeing snows in late Autumn (Nov) and really never let up.  One of my close friends who I grew up with in my 20's, moved to the NW burbs of the Twin cities and said he has had 6"+ snow OTG since early December and can confirm this has been one of THE best winters he has lived through.  The only winter he could compare this one to was '13-'14 when he lived in Chicago minus the brutal cold that season, although, it has gotten darn cold this season up in MN so I told him he better get used to it!

 

Mother nature has a tendency to balance things out and in terms of the cyclical nature of this years pattern, after going through nearly the entire Winter with barely any BN temps, the tables may be about to turn as we close out Feb and head into March.  Generally speaking, we have lacked any sustained periods of cold this winter season and a lot has to do with the cold Arctic this year and a strong PV.  However, as the strength of the jet stream wanes, coincide the development of blocking in the regions of the NE PAC/NW NAMER and throughout Canada, Winter is going to make a comeback in a big way for some of us next week.  Just like in recent years, March is going to roar in like a Lion this year.  Before then, though, we have ourselves a fascinating pattern shaping up to close out the last full week of met Winter for winter wx enthusiasts.  I'm afraid we are not, done, yet.......

 

While there isn't much going on in terms of tracking throughout next week, that will change by this time next week when I fully anticipate one of this years strongest winter storms to develop across the heartland.  The jury is still out who will get hit by Ol' Man Winter's fury during the 24th-27th period, but the idea of a slow moving large scale storm system is in the cards.  All the models in the LR are beginning to "sniff" this system out in the extended and its only a matter of time we start seeing some eye popping runs.  IMHO, this may actually turn into a powerful winter storm...possible "B" potential???  Sure looks like it could...

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_324.png

 

 

 

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS are seeing a major shot of cold post system knifing down the heartland...LRC cycle #1 repeat???

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

1.png

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"Save The Best For Last"...that was the title I came up with this Sunday morning as I prep for this LR post.  In fact, the title of this Thread may indeed be a sign of what is to come. 

 

 

It's been a difficult winter season for many of us snow enthusiasts, except for those of you up north who began seeing snows in late Autumn (Nov) and really never let up.  One of my close friends who I grew up with in my 20's, moved to the NW burbs of the Twin cities and said he has had 6"+ snow OTG since early December and can confirm this has been one of THE best winters he has lived through.  The only winter he could compare this one to was '13-'14 when he lived in Chicago minus the brutal cold that season, although, it has gotten darn cold this season up in MN so I told him he better get used to it!

 

Mother nature has a tendency to balance things out and in terms of the cyclical nature of this years pattern, after going through nearly the entire Winter with barely any BN temps, the tables may be about to turn as we close out Feb and head into March.  Generally speaking, we have lacked any sustained periods of cold this winter season and a lot has to do with the cold Arctic this year and a strong PV.  However, as the strength of the jet stream wanes, coincide the development of blocking in the regions of the NE PAC/NW NAMER and throughout Canada, Winter is going to make a comeback in a big way for some of us next week.  Just like in recent years, March is going to roar in like a Lion this year.  Before then, though, we have ourselves a fascinating pattern shaping up to close out the last full week of met Winter for winter wx enthusiasts.  I'm afraid we are not, done, yet.......

 

While there isn't much going on in terms of tracking throughout next week, that will change by this time next week when I fully anticipate one of this years strongest winter storms to develop across the heartland.  The jury is still out who will get hit by Ol' Man Winter's fury during the 24th-27th period, but the idea of a slow moving large scale storm system is in the cards.  All the models in the LR are beginning to "sniff" this system out in the extended and its only a matter of time we start seeing some eye popping runs.  IMHO, this may actually turn into a powerful winter storm...possible "B" potential???  Sure looks like it could...

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_324.png

 

 

 

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS are seeing a major shot of cold post system knifing down the heartland...LRC cycle #1 repeat???

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

Will it be another “2 weeks out” when this one doesn’t verify, as well? Gonna’ be hard to sell this snake oil for mid-March

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Haven’t been paying too close of attention to the models as they have been pathetic around here for so long. Now I’m seeing Wednesday potentially drops 1-3” around Central Nebraska. NAM, GFS and ICON showing something. Pretty bad if this has the potential to be our largest snow since December 26th. I won’t believe it until I see snow falling.

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There is only two weeks of meteorological winter left. And while meteorological spring starts on March 1st it can be a long and slow process before we see any real spring like weather. So soon the sap will be running and what little snow and ice we have will be gone and the days will get longer. At this time it is 37 here at my house with some sun.

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High of 74* today  Low tonight 55*  

 

Humidity 42%   So nice outside.  

 

Tomorrow 80* !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Just a short late winter update for Grand Rapids Michigan. Here are some facts for this winter season. The first snow fall of more than a trace was way back on November 6th While November did have below average snow fall there was snow of 1” or more for 5 days that month. November at this time was the only month with below average temperatures. December was mild with most of the snow fall on the 1st and again on the 31st with not much in between. The month ended up +4.0 warmer then average with below average snow fall of 14.3”. Christmas was very warm with a high of 55 and a high of 61 on the 26th January was much warmer than average with a mean of 31.3° and there was just 11.5” of snow fall. January 2020 was the 6th warmest in Grand Rapids recorded history. So far February mean is at 27.2 with a departure of +1.7° The snow fall at this time is at 12.1” this looks it will be the coldest month of the winter of 2019/20 (unless March is much colder than average) So far this winter season there have been 45 days of snow cover of 1” or more. The average for a winter season at Grand Rapids is 70 days with a range of 23 days in the winter of 1982/83 to a high of 124 days in the winter of 1903/04. Last year there were 66 days and in the winter of 2017/18 there were 67. The winter of 2016/17 there were just 42 and in the winter of 2011/12 there were just 34. To sum up this winter season would be mild with much below average snow fall. But since this winter started in early November I would not call it a short one.

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The Euro has backed off of the real mild air late in the period.  Now it's only 40s, which is still good.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS showing a massive storm early next week across the Central Plains.  What could possibly go wrong?  I thought about posting the map, but have been disappointed so many times in these large numbers I will just wait to see if it sticks around throughout the week on the models.  If there is consensus this weekend, then my excitement will go up.  Until then, just fun to look at.

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GFS showing a massive storm early next week across the Central Plains.  What could possibly go wrong?  I thought about posting the map, but have been disappointed so many times in these large numbers I will just wait to see if it sticks around throughout the week on the models.  If there is consensus this weekend, then my excitement will go up.  Until then, just fun to look at.

12z GEFS showing some huge hits across the heartland...

1.png

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The Euro has changed quite a bit early next week.  It had been digging the big trough into the four-corners region, which pulled mild air up into the midwest.  This morning's run aims the energy more eastward, only digging into the central/northern plains.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The LR signal continues to grow that a reversal into a more sustained colder/wintry pattern is in the works well into mid March, esp across the heartland.  Took a look at last night's Euro Weeklies and the continued trend off the CFSv2 weeklies that an active STJ will evolve next week and looks like it will have legs.  What has been a common theme over the past few years, Winter wants to hang on into met Spring and I find no reasons right now that anything different happens this year.  March is going to be an interesting month tracking late season winter storms.

 

The animation below is a great LR signal that a reversal in the pressure pattern across NW NAMER/Canada is lining up with the maps off the models for later this week into next.  Utilizing the about a 3 week lag period, the warmth explodes over the northern latitudes of North America and bleeds across Canada.  

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

The EPS is illustrating this growing trend and growing stronger each run.  Blocking will indeed become a key player and create a very favorable storm track coming out of the SW into the central Plains over the next 1-4 weeks.  Both the Euro/CFSv2 weeklies are in agreement that a very active storm track takes over as we open up March and I'm fully on board with this idea.  

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

 

I'm posting some maps off the Euro weeklies that provide us with a clue that Winter ain't over just yet.  This is especially true given the pattern I've been analyzing over the past couple weeks across the N PAC region using the BSR as guidance and into the foreseeable future.  The storms that have been tracking along the Aleutian Islands (west/east and not cutting NW) are a very good signal that place our Sub (esp the central/southern parts) to be in the vicinity of the mean storm track in the near term and LR.  If you construct a Loop of the GEFS MSLP you will see what I'm talking about on the Tropical Tidbits site in the North PAC region.

 

If you look at the CFSv2 500mb pattern into March, it is lining up where the 30mb warming pattern has evolved during the 1st 2 weeks of Feb.  Interesting correlation, ay?

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.png

 

 

 

 

 

Before we get into March, we have ourselves a stormy last week of met Winter in the works.  There are some interesting trends off the EPS for those of us farther east for the storm system early/mid next week.  The blocking pattern across southern Canada could pay dividends for those snow enthusiasts.  Let's see what trends evolve over the next few days.

 

1.png

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Attm, a balmy 37F under cloudy skies. Yesterdays snowfall was 1.6" total slopfest.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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South Fremont/Inglewood right now (road I use for work) idk why pictures are sideways

You have to go and check your settings and adjust the rotation on it. Either way, nice pics!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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