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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Madtown

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The UK is now getting into range of next week's system.  It is aiming a solid snow into our area.  The snow would continue after 144 hrs.

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a big difference between the UK and Euro next week.  All the models show an upper low digging into the sw US.  However, the UK shows energy diving out of Canada and phasing with the sw US low as it ejects into the midwest, while the Euro shows that same Canada energy totally bypassing the sw US low.  On the Euro, the sw US low has to wait for the next digging upper trough to kick it out.  The Euro scenario is not a great one for my area.  The Euro has a big southeast ridge pop and the sw US low cuts hard, so the good snow ends up farther north and west and the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward gets a surge of mild air and a big dry slot.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro...my goodness, this would be one hellova system....one of the more important bias's of the Euro is to dig the energy in the SW much deeper and hold it back longer.  The UKIE/GGEM/GFS all dig the energy into So Cal/AZ but eject it quicker which has a markedly different outcome.  Not to mention, the northern stream is pressing a lot less on the Euro compared to the rest of the models.  Given the state of the EPO during this period, I would look for the northern stream to press.  

 

Another influencing factor is the blocking that is growing near the Archipelago region of Canada that is trending stronger with each run.  This will also "'press" the cold farther south into the central CONUS aiding in a more favorable storm track for more of our members out west and potentially farther east around the GL's region.  It's finally nice to see a more wintry pattern shaping up as we try to make up for what has been a lackluster winter season thus far.  

 

 

 

 

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Model Mayhem is the theme in the Week 2-4 period as the models try to "figure" out the influence of the Tropical Forcing (MJO) and the N PAC pattern. With that being said, the JMA Weeklies came in today and are showing a rather cold/active pattern for Week 2 across the majority of our Sub.  The CFSv2 weeklies have been steadily trending colder with each run for the central CONUS and today's run is really bringing in the cold for Week 3-4 which will take us through this month.  Is Ol' Man winter finally going to show up??

 

CFSv2 Week 3-4...

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

 

 

 

 

Take a look at the JMA maps below...

 

Week 2...

 

Temps...

 

Y202002.D0512_gl2.png

 

Precip...

 

Y202002.D0512_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...the model develops a strong SER...this period is when the models diverge quite substantially.  Will the influence of the Polar Vortex put a dent in the SER???  There are signs that the PV will be making it's presence into North America later next week.

 

 

Temps....

 

Y202002.D0512_gl2.png

 

 

Y202002.D0512_gl0.png

 

 

The GFS op and GEFS have been rather consistent in suggesting the PV to influence the North American pattern later in Week 2.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_26.png

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_30.png

 

 

The SSW developing over Eurasia may be our Big clue and IF this pattern continues in re-surging waves throughout this month.  The placement of this warming will aid in "pushing" the PV into North America going forward.

 

 

 

temp10anim.gif

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NOAA:

A shortwave impulse will emerge out of the digging trough across the
PacNW resulting in a low pressure system developing across the
northern plains. This system will move into the Great Lakes bringing
the next chance at accumulating snowfall on Sunday.

Cold air begins to lift out of the region early next week allowing
for a rebound in high temperatures back into the 30s. Dry conditions
to start next week, but troughing from the northern plains into the
Great Lakes keeps chances for snowfall by mid-week and potential for
a even greater impactful system towards the end of next week.
However, forecast still holds great uncertainty this far out.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, cloudy w light snow on and off and temp at 24F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now, this is real snow! The Philly area....I miss running up the steps that "Balboa did in his Rocky movies..gotta do that real soon again....EC trip planner coming up for sure......

 

 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/winter-snow-philadelphia-weather-record-2010-north-atlantic-oscillation-20200204.html?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 06z GFS dropped next week's storm completely. LOL  The reason for this is the jet stream action behind it.  The Euro is strongly digging more energy behind it, which kicks it out as a hard cutter.  The latest GFS does not dig any trough behind it anymore.  Instead, it just has a nw flow out of Canada that suppresses everything.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ft. Worth is clear, brilliant skies, and 26 very chilly degrees

 

We expect to see a high of 47* and a low of 32*.

 

The snow and ice remained just west of me...of course, but this image is very much what it looked like.

Reminds me of the land I lived on just west of Ft. Worth.

 

IMG_4146.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Snow Wiz has a nice post in the West forum that I think should be shared over here.

If you haven't checked it out, you might jump overt here.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2177-major-stratospheric-warming-in-progress/

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ft. Worth is clear, brilliant skies, and 26 very chilly degrees

 

We expect to see a high of 47* and a low of 32*.

 

The snow and ice remained just west of me...of course, but this image is very much what it looked like.

Reminds me of the land I lived on just west of Ft. Worth.

 

attachicon.gifIMG_4146.PNG

Nice!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, cloudy w a few snowshowers flying around. Roads are slick.  Temp at 24F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12Z ICON supressed way south and gives virtually nothing to the Central Plains.  Will be interested to start looking at other models today.  Local mets say that cold is very likely next week but many questions remain on snowfall.  Sounds about right. 

 

At this point I wouldn't bank on the cold either. It's been coming since December....

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12z GFS still nothing next week.  A day ago the GFS, like the Euro, showed a ridge nosing up into Alaska next week, which dislodges some upper energy.  That energy then dove down the west coast and helped lift the lead sw US energy up into the central US.  The Euro still does that.  The GFS now does not bump the ridge into Alaska, so the upper energy kicker needed for next week's storm stalls over Alaska.  We end up with nothing but a suppressive nw flow over the US.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GFS still nothing next week. A day ago the GFS, like the Euro, showed a ridge nosing up into Alaska next week, which dislodges some upper energy. That energy then dove down the west coast and helped lift the lead sw US energy up into the central US. The Euro still does that. The GFS now does not bump the ridge into Alaska, so the upper energy kicker needed for next week's storm stalls over Alaska. We end up with nothing but a suppressive nw flow over the US.

Going by how this winter has gone it wouldn't surprise me if this verified.
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The best winter EVER continues as we’re nearly three weeks away from the end of meteorological winter. Kicking the can down the road for all the epic and historic events we’ve been wishcasted all season long doesn’t mean as much when we’re looking ahead to MARCH!

 

There will still be cold and there will still be snow, no doubt, but this winter was an absolute embarrassment for the models and the forecasters that relied on them to confirm their biases. I have enjoyed watching them fail while looking at my snowless yard!

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Bet we’re not going to have a spring either and it’ll be cold and rainy. Type of spring with dakota blizzards and more dusting-1 inch snows down here through mid April.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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12z GFS still nothing next week.  A day ago the GFS, like the Euro, showed a ridge nosing up into Alaska next week, which dislodges some upper energy.  That energy then dove down the west coast and helped lift the lead sw US energy up into the central US.  The Euro still does that.  The GFS now does not bump the ridge into Alaska, so the upper energy kicker needed for next week's storm stalls over Alaska.  We end up with nothing but a suppressive nw flow over the US.

This is where the LRC does help, we should get the big Pacific Ridge, now how the energy comes down with these wonderful (not) telleconections is TBD.

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The 12z UK continues to be on the Euro's side.  It has the kicker energy diving down into the western US, which lifts the lead wave into our region.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Trees outside in my far distance woods are beautifully covered in snow. Great postcard pic. Temp at 25F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A lot of snow showing up on the latest 12z UKIE...I'm sure the Euro will still have the storm just hope it doesn't cut NW so much...I will say, the UKIE does develop a healthy comma shaped storm that tracks from S TX into the Lower Lakes.

 

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

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12z Euro quite a bit south from 00z and looks very similar to the UKIE...major winter storm from the Plains/MW/Lower GL's...

 

Edit: It looks like the storm doesn't have to much cold air to work with but it does show a nice swatch of heavier snows in a SW/NE orientation from the Plains into the GL's.

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This run of the Euro still digs the kicker energy into the west, but it's farther east.  The result still brings the lead wave up into our region, but it's a more sheared-out look instead of the hard cutter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This run of the Euro still digs the kicker energy into the west, but it's farther east.  The result still brings the lead wave up into our region, but it's a more sheared-out look instead of the hard cutter.

The separation of the northern stream and southern energy don't allow the storm to really explode like it did in previous runs.  Hopefully it's not a trend like some of the other models are showing.  At this range though, anything can be expected.

 

I am seeing, however, the Archipelago blocking growing strong each and every run suggesting to me that the northern stream should press south.  Let's see how this evolves as I'm sure there will be many more solutions.

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