February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[OKwx2k4]

Meanwhile...

 

"Alaska had a brutally cold January (2020). In Fairbanks, it ranked as 15th coldest (records began in 1904) with an average of -21.4F in Fairbanks (13.4F below average)."

 

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/alaska_had_a_brutally_cold_january_fairbanks_it_ranked_as_15th_coldest_reco/

They're always opposite of me down here in a lot of ways. Above Avg there means below here and vice versa. Was a warm January here.

[Mi_Matthew]

GRR mentioned the HRRRX (specifically about it outperforming the HRRR wrt to LES) in their late morning update AFD, anybody know what it is & where to find products?

 

Edit: Found out it is an experimental HRRR. Maybe only available internally...

[mlgamer]

They're always opposite of me down here in a lot of ways. Above Avg there means below here and vice versa. Was a warm January here.

Yep, same here.  There was a time when that brutally cold air would eventually dislodge and make it's way to our areas (modified of course) at some point, but it in recent years that seems not to happen so much.

[Clinton]

Repeat storm track from the recent storm? Looks rather similar but instead of multiple waves it comes out in one piece. I’d like to see the models press more cold into the pattern.

EC came in further north and stronger, hits your area good.

[james1976]

Very surprising 1.4" of snow in mby so far today. Flakes are good sized. Hardly any radar returns though. I'll take it

[Hawkeye]

Just a few flurries here this afternoon.

[jaster220]

EC came in further north and stronger, hits your area good.

 

Sign me up!!! 

[james1976]

Roads are wet but its sticking on the old snow and on my driveway.

[jaster220]

So, have another WWA for that sneaky 94 corridor band I noticed yesterday's models picking up for overnight. Nobody will be on the roads at 3 or 4 am (compared to yesterday), but it's LES so we go headline. With such an iffy set-up you would think a Squall Warning if warranted would be better for any sudden visibility concerns.    @ my office. 

 

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
141 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

MIZ064-065-071>073-080245-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0004.200207T1900Z-200208T1400Z/
Allegan-Barry-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Holland, Hastings, South Haven,
Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek
141 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, poor visibility, slippery travel. Additional snow
accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo and Calhoun
counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Slippery road conditions and poor visibility.
Hazardous conditions will affect the evening commute...
particularly west of US-131. Poor conditions will spread east of
US-131 starting early tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS....Abrupt changes in driving conditions are
expected. Roadways could become icy under bursts of snow tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

[jaster220]

^^ Sums up my comments above to a "T"    

 

 

This is not a "slam dunk" advisory situation by any means, but there
is definite potential for localized and rapid changes in conditions
to intersect a large number of travelers. As a further caveat, any
hazardous travel conditions that develop could end up terminating
well before the 9 am Saturday expiration time.

[jaster220]

In the plus column, I found the best Met lingo speak I've seen from them in a long time! 

 

 

Forecast details: We see a north-south axis of cellular looking lake
enhanced snow just offshore that is already affecting Van Buren
County. Water vapor imagery shows a well defined PV axis dropping
south across Wisconsin at this time. Radar presentation over Lake
Michigan ahead of this feature is stretching westward, indicating a
deepening convective boundary layer. Model guidance indicates a
transition to a more organized dominant band later tonight as
the boundary layer stabilizes and flow becomes more laminar.

[jaster220]

Wouldn't mind getting lucky tonight (said every guy haha)

 

 

The next window of concern is after 23Z, mainly along the I-94
corridor when a potentially intense band of snow could affect
terminals in this area, most notably KAZO and KBTL. The band will
be rather narrow and could sidestep the terminals altogether.
However, potential for snow bands persists overnight in this
general vicinity. Have therefore left the latter portions of the
TAFs rather open-ended. By extension, there is a wide range of
possibilities regarding visibility/ceiling restrictions at
KAZO/KBTL/KJXN terminals

[CentralNebWeather]

Just saw Barrow Alaska is currently-37 with a wind chill of -65. No wonder we have been so far above normal with the cold bottled up there.

[Clinton]

Just saw Barrow Alaska is currently-37 with a wind chill of -65. No wonder we have been so far above normal with the cold bottled up there.

That's the power of a +AO.  Right now I would be thrilled just to have it and the NAO be nuetral. 

[CentralNebWeather]

That's the power of a +AO. Right now I would be thrilled just to have it and the NAO be nuetral.

Sometimes I like looking at what it would be like to live up there for a winter. Warmest temp in the next 15 days is around-20 with wind chills approaching-70 or lower at times. That would take a special person for the isolation and costs of most products. Of course you are paid a lot of money.

[Clinton]

Sometimes I like looking at what it would be like to live up there for a winter. Warmest temp in the next 15 days is around-20 with wind chills approaching-70 or lower at times. That would take a special person for the isolation and costs of most products. Of course you are paid a lot of money.

I think I would like it for about a week but thats to cold and too dark for me.  Summertime I could handle the fishing.

[Clinton]

18z EC doesn't get it all but what it does get looks good

[MIKEKC]

This winter is a great example of how difficult long range forecasting is. No matter what anyone says, it’s still a work in progress. Sure, there have been successful long range outlooks, but, more times then not, the forecasts are off in some way.

 

I think every long range forecast called for a cold winter east of the Rockies. The total opposite has happened.

 

How can you forecast the AO/NAO/MJO? Clearly, these indexes have screwed up this winter.

 

Here in KC, great moisture, but warm temps. KC is around 10-15 inches of snow on the grass, pavement totals are around 7-8 inches. Colder winter and we have 25 inches by now.

 

The deep cold on the data showing up next week has now pretty much disappeared. We have seen this many times before... I just don’t think that’s going to change the rest of winter.

 

Once again, KC has seen all winter events in the 28-34 degree range and mostly 31-34. Heck, we had a 3-4 inch snow a few weeks back overnight, it snowed at 33 degrees all night. The only way we scored a good accumulation was the fact it fell at night. Had that happened during the day, it would have been barely an inch...maybe.

 

With all this being said, we still have had a busy winter and plenty of action, can’t complain about that. We have not held a snow pack longer then 4 days, crazy!

 

Winter is not over, hopefully we all can score 2-3 more hits before the warm season.

 

Go snow!

[MIKEKC]

Clinton, please make that one of the last 2-3 hits I am wanting!

 

That storm next week will be working with marginal cold air again, maybe it will trend colder! Come on!!

[Hawkeye]

For next week, the Canadian came back north a bit this morning and it's farther north tonight.

 

Edit:  UK has backed off again as it has increased the nw flow.  We'll probably see more of this back and forth.

 

[Stacsh]

Picked up an inch so far overnight. Was not supposed to get anything. Lake effect is a crazy thing.

[Tom]

Interesting trends on the Euro over the past 3 runs as it is ejecting the SW wave quicker each run which allows it to phase with the northern stream over the central Plains.  The storm then tracks towards the lower lakes laying down a significant snow from LNK/KC into the GL's.  It's been the theme for the models to hang back the energy to long in the SW so its starting to make sense.  Even though the UKIE was surpressed on last nights 00z run, I still believe it will come back today.  The Canadian is starting to trend more towards the Euro so I think we may be on the verge of firing up a storm thread later today if runs show some model consistency during today's 12z suite.

 

Nice thing about this pattern that is setting up is the fact that the Canadian Ridge is pressing farther south and seeding plenty of arctic air to tap into this system.  It'll come down to the timing of both pieces and when or if they phase.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z GEFS ensemble showing more members that look like the Euro...

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...starting to baby step in the right direction...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yep, same here. There was a time when that brutally cold air would eventually dislodge and make it's way to our areas (modified of course) at some point, but it in recent years that seems not to happen so much.

PDO and EPO haven't cooperated much for 5 years w/exception of early autumn and spring. Blocked the air off back into Russia or over into NE Canada.

 

It looks to change the next year or 2 but it feels like I've been waiting forever and saying that for 3 years.

[jaster220]

At SEMI Peeps - heads-up

 

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
841 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

MIZ068>070-081500-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, and Warren
841 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...

WEATHER...

* A narrow band of heavy snow along and north of the I-96/696
corridor will gradually diminish from west to east through the
mid-morning hours.

* An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible along this
corridor through 10 AM, mainly in southern Oakland and Macomb
Counties.

* Light wind around 5 mph.

* Air temperature around 23 degrees.

IMPACTS...

* Visibilities will fall below 1/4 mile at times due to heavy
snow. Rapid fluctuations of visibility are likely.

* Accumulating snow will lead to slippery roads particularly on
bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* The combination of Heavy Snow and cold temperatures will
result in localized slippery conditions and variable traffic
rates throughout the county. Motorists are urged to use
caution and account for the variable driving conditions by
allowing extra time.

[jaster220]

Uggh. As per usual, this clipper is tracking N of guidance. Looks like the nice LEhS streamer I was expecting will miss me now. Congrats those who will benefit like Stacsh, et al. I'm about to get scraped by this 2nd blob along the stationary front just to add insult to injury. 

 

[Niko]

At SEMI Peeps - heads-up

 

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

841 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

 

MIZ068>070-081500-

Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-

Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, and Warren

841 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

 

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND

REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...

 

WEATHER...

 

* A narrow band of heavy snow along and north of the I-96/696

corridor will gradually diminish from west to east through the

mid-morning hours.

 

* An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible along this

corridor through 10 AM, mainly in southern Oakland and Macomb

Counties.

 

* Light wind around 5 mph.

 

* Air temperature around 23 degrees.

 

IMPACTS...

 

* Visibilities will fall below 1/4 mile at times due to heavy

snow. Rapid fluctuations of visibility are likely.

 

* Accumulating snow will lead to slippery roads particularly on

bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

 

&&

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

* The combination of Heavy Snow and cold temperatures will

result in localized slippery conditions and variable traffic

rates throughout the county. Motorists are urged to use

caution and account for the variable driving conditions by

allowing extra time.

Roger that. Its coming down heavily. What a three day stretch of snowy days. I could easily top this off b4 all set and done at 6".

[Niko]

Attm, 17F w heavy snow.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-090900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-359 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightWidely scattered snow showers possible through the evening withwidely varying accumulation totals ranging between a dusting to aninch. Highest chances to reach the inch mark will be confined tolocations between the I-94 to I-69 corridor..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through FridayA low pressure system will track across lower Michigan startingSunday afternoon and will result in 2 to 4 inches of snowfallaccumulation by Monday morning.

My area just keeps stacking up snow

[jaster220]

I did pick up 0.5" since y-day eve here. Wasn't a complete shutout just to be clear. (had mood flakes floating down a few min't ago too. Fwiw quite a wintry day here)

[Stacsh]

sometimes the models are just clueless 

 

".UPDATE...

Issued at 955 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2020

There is a stationary frontal boundary (arctic front) stalled
between I-94 and I-96. The inversion heights remain near 7000 ft
through the day and the DGZ remains saturated. We (the three of us
on shift now) see no reason this would not continue through the
day. We had a report recently from East Grand Rapids at 9 am of 1
inch of snow in two hours. Our 88D radar snow algorithm showed
that but it had a max of 2.5 inches per hour just north of that
over north Grand Rapids. So, with the front stalled there and the
moisture and inversion heights favorable, we will keep the snow
showers going in the I-94 to I-96 area through the day. Some of
the snow showers will be briefly heavy with visibility`s near
quarter mile briefly. Snow totals today will mostly be around an
inch but locally higher amounts to near 3 inches are more than
possible.

It should be noted NONE Of the high resolution models have much
of clue on the snow showers today in there QPF forecasts.

Also there is a warm front that comes through our area this
evening and most of the hi-res models do show snow with that this
evening. We will be increasing our POP and QPF for that shortly.

The system for Sunday seems like a 3 to 5 inch event near route
10, 2 to 4 inch event near I-96 and 1 to 2 inches near I-94. We
are thinking to issue a winter weather advisory with the
afternoon forecast package for this event."

[Hawkeye]

The 12z GFS did move closer to a good storm next week, but it's not quite there, yet.

[Grizzcoat]

Looks like before the 12Z RUN of the EURO it's the EURO agst the world for the middle of next weeks system- only the EURO shows from it's 00Z run. Something tells me the Euro had a bad run last night. Though to be fair- the GFS is showing signs as mentioned but NOT near the brutal cold shown by latest UKIE and last nights Euro.

[Tom]

The 12z UKIE squashes the southern stream energy and produces a sheared out wave that gives some snow to those in IN/OH...

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro still has the storm, but it's a bit southeast of last night's run.  This storm appears to be dependent on a piece of energy coming out of Canada Tuesday.  How far west or east that wave is will determine if there is a storm or not.  The Euro has it more west, so it is able to pick up the sw US energy and lift it toward the lakes.  Other models have the Canada energy more east, so instead of picking up the sw US energy it just squashes and suppresses it.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro...I'd like to see one more 24 hour cycle to see if the models show more consistency...

 

 

[Tom]

If the Euro is right, the whicked cold that comes on the backside of the system is going to be "numbing" cold...-10's/-20's possible across IA/MN/WI/N IL...of course, you will need snow OTG and it will also be a transient shot of Arctic air.

[Grizzcoat]

Not buying the Euro at this range - to me the GFS late this winter IMBY has beaten the EURO. I don't see nearly -10F with little snow (fresh) on the ground in mid FEB as the Euro shows. Over doing the cold which leads to over doing any kind of storm.

[Andie]

Spring has sprung! Then again, don't hold your breath!!

 

It's 57* at 1pm clear and Sunny. A gorgeous spring day, but change is on the way.

Cold air will roll in over west Texas Monday and by Tuesday temps will drop in North Texas.

The Panhandle will likely receive a half to one inch of slushy snow on Monday.