February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[gimmesnow]

I sure hope the extended Accuweather forecast is wrong. It has me closing out the month of February with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with rain and ice.

[FV-Mike]

Some good stuff in LOTS AFD

 

Guidance has been consistent showing a closed upper low across the
southwest states early this coming week with a strong (165+ kt)
upper jet in advance of this over the eastern U.S./Great Lakes
where the polar jet and subtropical jet will have some
interaction. It appears that if the upper low can track far enough
north into the middle of the country with this jet that active,
that it would support an opening, negatively-tilted wave potential
and a deepening low-level response. While the GFS and Canadian
models don`t show this until mainly past our area, the EC has been
slightly more consistent and further west. It should be noted the
12Z EC ensemble, while of course some noteworthy spread, has a
mean solution that supports the 12Z deterministic EC and does
bring its broad solution snow swath over the CWA. Closed upper
lows can often be further west and/or show slower transitioning to
a progressive wave in such a scenario. If so, certainly a
potential for a developing deformation area of snow toward the
western Great Lakes region, but the mean solution of all guidance
is presently a little further east.

[Niko]

Looks like some real cold air arrives by the end of next week. Highs potentially in the teens for a day.

[Niko]

Attm, 24F under mostly cloudy

[snowstorm83]

Not buying the Euro at this range - to me the GFS late this winter IMBY has beaten the EURO. I don't see nearly -10F with little snow (fresh) on the ground in mid FEB as the Euro shows. Over doing the cold which leads to over doing any kind of storm.

 

GFS is flaming trash, but it's led the way several times this winter. Euro isn't King and is just as bad as the GFS. 

[Clinton]

18z EC gets beefy from KC to Chicago to Grand Rapids.

[CentralNebWeather]

The donut hole is pretty prominent but sadly seen before.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS continues to get better.

 

[Money]

GEM looks better also

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro nearly identical to the 12z.

 

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread for the pre-Valentine's Day storm...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2179-212-214-lower-lakes-cutter/

[Tom]

Whoever has at least 5"+ of snow OTG for Valentine's Day across the Upper MW/MW/W GL's...I'm sure they will be bundled up next a coozy fire later that night!  Brrrr.....

 

 

[Niko]

Currently at 30F under mostly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Brutally cold air follows the midweek potential snowstorm. Low temps will be near subzero readings w all of that snowcover already otg. Highs will be frigid! Its short-lived though. High temps rebound quickly into the 20s and 30s and even some low 40s by the following week.

[Niko]

A good friend of mine emailed me this pic from his house yesterday in Highpoint, NJ

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The cold has once again disappeared for here (actually fine with me) this week as we have a one day shot of cold air on Thursday with highs in the 20s then it warms right back up. The rest of the week has highs in the 30s and 40s.

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front has barreled through here. Wiinds gusting over 50 mph with a brown ground. No precipitation in sight and the cold keeps disappearing in the extended forecasts.

[Niko]

Clouds are increasing along w temps at 31F.

[snowstorm83]

The cold has once again disappeared for here (actually fine with me) this week as we have a one day shot of cold air on Thursday with highs in the 20s then it warms right back up. The rest of the week has highs in the 30s and 40s.

Giant yawn. I can’t see a way this feb isn’t going to end up well above average.

[Hawkeye]

Giant yawn. I can’t see a way this feb isn’t going to end up well above average.

 

If next week's system passes south of Iowa, the entire month may be a bust.

[erburns18]

Bring on spring. Ready to do some fishing

[OmahaSnowFan]

[BrianJK]

[IowaWX82]

Sad thing is we’re only a few months away before you start actually reading posts on here making such absurd calls

It’s funny because it’s true!

 

Think spring!

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy w temps at 30F.

[Stacsh]

Looks like I’m getting a week or 2 of winter. Currently 28 with moderate snow falling.

[MIKEKC]

GFS the next 16 days looks uneventful.

 

#earlyspring

 

I was hoping for a big FEB.

 

Maybe it will look different in the next few days.

[jaster220]

Sad thing is we’re only a few months away before you start actually reading posts on here making such absurd calls

 

The anticipation is always better than the actual season. Just the way it is, lol..

[Niko]

Currently snowing and a temp of 30F.

[IowaWX82]

[snowstorm83]

Large swaths of the mid south are getting 5-8” of rain over the next several days. No thanks, I’ll gladly take my cold, dry, and boring.

[Niko]

After next week, models seem to warm us up into the 40s.

[Tom]

Thinking of Spring??  I started a Spring/Summer thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2181-2020-spring-summer-discussion/

[St Paul Storm]

Light snow and freezing fog this morning. Quite a winter scene with the fresh snow from yesterday and the fog sticking to the trees this morning. The arctic front mid-week means business. After a high off 33F on Wed, lows Wed night drop to -7. A high of 3F on Thurs and a low of -13F that night. Too bad I’m jetting off to Miami on Wed to enjoy mid 80s for a few days. My pasty white winter skin needs some sun.

[Niko]

Temps stand a chance of going below zero w fresh snowcover Thursday night. That will be the first time this Winter season also. Short-lived cold snap as temps rebound into the 40s by early next week.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Heard lots of birds this morning for the first time. It's frosty and in the 20s, but with no wind and a sun that is getting stronger it felt pretty nice out.

[Hawkeye]

Models are steadily going more positive with the EPO.  Now it looks like little more than a brief dip into negative territory.  It just doesn't want to stay negative this winter.

 

[Tom]

Models are steadily going more positive with the EPO.  Now it looks like little more than a brief dip into negative territory.  It just doesn't want to stay negative this winter.

 

 

 

This season has been a big learning curve for me.  Who would have thought that based on the N PAC SST pattern we would see Alaska as the magnet for cold.  Back in 2011-12, the NE PAC was cold, not warm like this year and this year we have seen the same pattern up that way.  It really through a curve ball to every single long range forecaster this year.  Not only that, but the lack of any sustained blocking (which was likely the culprit all season long) was the writing on the wall to a torch winter.  #lessonlearned

[Hawkeye]

The 12z GFS has two rain events following this week's brief cold.  

[Niko]

I think that once we enter March, we will have a few BN days w brief snow chances here and there, but there on after, especially by mid month, we should be done w any meaningful snowevents, which is fine by me.   Then again, who knows, right!!!