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February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


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From everything I'm hearing, it's going to be a mild end to February.  I feel like we've hardly had a winter.  Usually winter season seems to go on forever.  Doesn't seem to be the case this year.  2 weeks from March!

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I went out to DeSoto on Saturday this past weekend and caught a couple of good shots. Saw at least 1/2 a dozen of Bald Eagles and several other large hawks. My favorite shot is probably the first one

Happy Valentines Day to my weather buddies!   Thanks for all your friendship.  

Ft. Worth is clear, brilliant skies, and 26 very chilly degrees   We expect to see a high of 47* and a low of 32*.   The snow and ice remained just west of me...of course, but this image is very muc

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From everything I'm hearing, it's going to be a mild end to February.  I feel like we've hardly had a winter.  Usually winter season seems to go on forever.  Doesn't seem to be the case this year.  2 weeks from March!

I agree. Case in point, look at this frigid airmass that we have now. Where was this a month or 2 ago. Now, its almost Met Spring. People are getting ready for severe weather. Another i.e., take a look at next week BS storm. Cannot even provide us a real good snowstorm (spread the Wealth Storm that is, like some express on here), instead, its going to be rain, right after the heels of this frigid air. That goes to show you that this pattern continues to be not good. I got real lucky w the 2 past snowstorms (Vet' Days major snowstorm and Jan 17-18th snowstorm)  that my area received, otherwise, I would have been somewhere in the 15inch range or so right now.

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Same here! Got down to -2F...I miss walking on the snow and hearing that “crunch”...heard a lot of popping last night around the house and my deck outside.

It was nice, I also bottomed out at -2.  It is currently 0 and the warm up should begin this afternoon.

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Potential of several Artic Airmass intrusions over the Great lakes next 15 days. With the ice free waters widespread lake effect snow squalls are possible.

 

snowNESDISus.gif

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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We went down below freezing last night and currently are at 33*  with a 29* wind chill.

 

Dallas freeways have been snarled all morning with crashes from Black Ice. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Happy Valentines Day to my weather buddies!

 

Thanks for all your friendship.

 

:wub:

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Same here! Got down to -2F...I miss walking on the snow and hearing that “crunch”...heard a lot of popping last night around the house and my deck outside.

Lot of creaking, cracking, and popping - very loud!

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Believe it was -13 here last night. I stepped out on the deck to refill the bird feeder and it sounded like a shotgun.

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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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I’ve been in Austin Texas all month and seeing you guys in the negatives makes me not want to come back lmao. Sounds brutal. It stormed here the other morning and it just makes me want it to be spring and summer already!

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Saw this post on another site. Crazy strong storms in the north Atlantic right now...

 

This is downright the craziest surface analysis I've ever seen; we have:
  • A 933hPa low sitting over the North Atlantic;
  • A new 941hPa core right next to it deepening to 929hPa in 24h;
  • Another system coming in from the SW at 972hPa, forecast at 917hPa (!!) in 24h
Three days from now, pretty much the entire North Atlantic at middle latitudes will see waves of 5-15m high and locally even more. Just imagine how much energy is being released onto the ocean surface to do that.
You can find the latest analyses here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php
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This morning's Euro has 50º from Cedar Rapids to Chicago by next weekend.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The low here at my house was +8.1° but officially at the airport when no one was looking it dropped down to +4 and that has a good chance of being the coldest low for the winter of 2019/20 and if that is the case it will be one of the warmest lowest winter lows here at Grand Rapids  A list of winters with warmer lowest that I can find are 1920/21 and 1937/38.

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Noticed that.  Flashing an early spring after 1 more quick cool down.  

If there's gonna be no snow may as well have it be warm.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Saw this post on another site. Crazy strong storms in the north Atlantic right now...

 

This is downright the craziest surface analysis I've ever seen; we have:
  • A 933hPa low sitting over the North Atlantic;
  • A new 941hPa core right next to it deepening to 929hPa in 24h;
  • Another system coming in from the SW at 972hPa, forecast at 917hPa (!!) in 24h
Three days from now, pretty much the entire North Atlantic at middle latitudes will see waves of 5-15m high and locally even more. Just imagine how much energy is being released onto the ocean surface to do that.
You can find the latest analyses here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

 

 

So that's where our historic strong storms ended up. Great to know... :rolleyes:

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like by next weekend, the melting starts. Spring fever arrives as temps flirt w 50F.

 

49F is neither growing season warm, nor spring temps really. Anything 50F and below happens during winter pretty regularly around here tbh. My threshold for "warm" begins with mid-50s. That and above I'd call unusual warmth during DJF at our LAT in SMI.. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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*****. I'm still here.

 

Did you move back east from SD by any chance?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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49F is neither growing season warm, nor spring temps really. Anything 50F and below happens during winter pretty regularly around here tbh. My threshold for "warm" begins with mid-50s. That and above I'd call unusual warmth during DJF at our LAT in SMI.. 

Who said anything about growing season?  Its 50F fricken degrees in February. Average highs are still in the mid 30s or so. Anything 50F or better in this LAT during Winter is considered Spring fever in my threshold.

 

 Btw: Check out Icon?! :blink:

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I’ve been in Austin Texas all month and seeing you guys in the negatives makes me not want to come back lmao. Sounds brutal. It stormed here the other morning and it just makes me want it to be spring and summer already!

It's been comparatively dull here.  Some cold, some rain, but generally a boring winter. 

Hope you enjoyed Austin.  And hope you made it a bit west into Hill Country. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looking at the upcoming pattern, seems like this is probably the last bout of truly cold weather of the winter. 

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2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn

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After what has been a very quite and boring period for our members out west, I think the best is yet to come for those out that way.  Is Bowling Ball season about to begin???  The pattern is looking ripe for some slow movers to begin tracking across the central Sub during the last week of Feb and well into March.  Based on what I'm seeing in the N PAC/East Asia and the cycling wx pattern, March Madness is starting early and often this year.  As mentioned in previous posts, the period between the 24th-27th is likely going to highlight one of the main signature storms in this years LRC and both the EPS/GEFS are beginning to show some members with larges scale slow movers traversing our Sub.  How much blocking will be present??  How hard will they cut or not???  These are the trends we will likely be tracking over the next week or so as we enter a very quite period, ableit, a bit chilly for some of us mid next week.

 

The trends over the past few days on the EPS has been growing an increasingly large and expansive snow shield out west and into the W GL's.  FWIW, the model has been steadily showing more blocking across Canada so this snow shield IMO will likely be shifting in the days to come.  I will say, with confidence, that the central Plains members are in the hot zone for a potential significant winter storm.  Will our members in the MW also get a taste???  Hard to say right now as I'd like to see more blocking show up like the GEFS are indicating.

 

The difference between the GEFS & EPS for Week 2 are pretty obvious....IMO, something in the middle is probably going to be close to what happens as we finish off met Winter.  Late season rally???

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_384.png

 

 

 

 

1.png

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After what has been a very quite and boring period for our members out west, I think the best is yet to come for those out that way. Is Bowling Ball season about to begin??? The pattern is looking ripe for some slow movers to begin tracking across the central Sub during the last week of Feb and well into March. Based on what I'm seeing in the N PAC/East Asia and the cycling wx pattern, March Madness is starting early and often this year. As mentioned in previous posts, the period between the 24th-27th is likely going to highlight one of the main signature storms in this years LRC and both the EPS/GEFS are beginning to show some members with larges scale slow movers traversing our Sub. How much blocking will be present?? How hard will they cut or not??? These are the trends we will likely be tracking over the next week or so as we enter a very quite period, ableit, a bit chilly for some of us mid next week.

 

The trends over the past few days on the EPS has been growing an increasingly large and expansive snow shield out west and into the W GL's. FWIW, the model has been steadily showing more blocking across Canada so this snow shield IMO will likely be shifting in the days to come. I will say, with confidence, that the central Plains members are in the hot zone for a potential significant winter storm. Will our members in the MW also get a taste??? Hard to say right now as I'd like to see more blocking show up like the GEFS are indicating.

 

The difference between the GEFS & EPS for Week 2 are pretty obvious....IMO, something in the middle is probably going to be close to what happens as we finish off met Winter. Late season rally???

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_384.png

These maps haven’t been seen around this area in 2 months. The next 8 weeks typically produce our biggest storms and blizzards in Central Nebraska. Thanks for sharing Tom.

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This time of year, if the pattern is not conducive for snow, I begin to get spring fever.  I'm really liking the 2+ days well into the 50s at the end of the Euro run.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Who said anything about growing season?  Its 50F fricken degrees in February. Average highs are still in the mid 30s or so. Anything 50F or better in this LAT during Winter is considered Spring fever in my threshold.

 

 Btw: Check out Icon?! :blink:

Easy there buddy. Guess I missed the word fever. Thought you were calling for spring next weekend at only 50F lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Attm, its not a bad looking day outside from what I am seeing from my homeoffice window, although, haven't been outside yet, my temp reads 22F. Might go play some Pool tournament later, if time permits. In any case, lets see what happens w the rest of Feb. Will we get a blockbuster at all this Winter? Could it happen in March? So many questions that need to get answered. Anyways, catch y'all laterz. Busy day today on tap. Hopefully, models go w Icon.  B)  ;)

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Cold and windy winter's day here with drifting snow at my sister's farm near Frankenmuth

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro continues to be pretty amped late in the month.  If this pans out, we may have a shot at 60º by day 11.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Bit of a Barney Express in the heart of the forum. Not too major, but I've really missed saying the term "barney express" with how lame this Winter has been

Euro 15.png

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Just listened to JB's Saturday Summary at Weather Bell.  Big changes coming as a much colder and stormier pattern begins to evolve for much of the US.  Yep, you guessed it - just two weeks away.  All we have to do is just wait another two weeks and we're going to have all the snow and cold that we can handle! 

 

How many times this winter have we heard that line?  Actually, I would like to see that come to pass, but I'm not holding my breath.

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After bottoming out at 3F overnight, temps have been on the rise all day reaching 32F at 9 pm. Nonetheless, with a gusty S wind it's actually been one of the most legit winter days all season without the usual puddles and drip-drip-drip so common. Where was this during Dec and most of January when I really wanted it? There was a burst of SN/IP giving about 0.2" and some ZR causing road crews to be active. Further N near Saginaw it looked like mini-bliz conditions at times between the squalls and BLSN. Even some decent drifts across the side roads. Unfortunately, if all we are looking at here is more 2" or under events, I'm honestly bored with this winter at this point. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.0"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Bit of a Barney Express in the heart of the forum. Not too major, but I've really missed saying the term "barney express" with how lame this Winter has been

Lol. One of my favorites had long been "barney rampage". :lol:

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"Save The Best For Last"...that was the title I came up with this Sunday morning as I prep for this LR post.  In fact, the title of this Thread may indeed be a sign of what is to come. 

 

 

It's been a difficult winter season for many of us snow enthusiasts, except for those of you up north who began seeing snows in late Autumn (Nov) and really never let up.  One of my close friends who I grew up with in my 20's, moved to the NW burbs of the Twin cities and said he has had 6"+ snow OTG since early December and can confirm this has been one of THE best winters he has lived through.  The only winter he could compare this one to was '13-'14 when he lived in Chicago minus the brutal cold that season, although, it has gotten darn cold this season up in MN so I told him he better get used to it!

 

Mother nature has a tendency to balance things out and in terms of the cyclical nature of this years pattern, after going through nearly the entire Winter with barely any BN temps, the tables may be about to turn as we close out Feb and head into March.  Generally speaking, we have lacked any sustained periods of cold this winter season and a lot has to do with the cold Arctic this year and a strong PV.  However, as the strength of the jet stream wanes, coincide the development of blocking in the regions of the NE PAC/NW NAMER and throughout Canada, Winter is going to make a comeback in a big way for some of us next week.  Just like in recent years, March is going to roar in like a Lion this year.  Before then, though, we have ourselves a fascinating pattern shaping up to close out the last full week of met Winter for winter wx enthusiasts.  I'm afraid we are not, done, yet.......

 

While there isn't much going on in terms of tracking throughout next week, that will change by this time next week when I fully anticipate one of this years strongest winter storms to develop across the heartland.  The jury is still out who will get hit by Ol' Man Winter's fury during the 24th-27th period, but the idea of a slow moving large scale storm system is in the cards.  All the models in the LR are beginning to "sniff" this system out in the extended and its only a matter of time we start seeing some eye popping runs.  IMHO, this may actually turn into a powerful winter storm...possible "B" potential???  Sure looks like it could...

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_324.png

 

 

 

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS are seeing a major shot of cold post system knifing down the heartland...LRC cycle #1 repeat???

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

1.png

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"Save The Best For Last"...that was the title I came up with this Sunday morning as I prep for this LR post.  In fact, the title of this Thread may indeed be a sign of what is to come. 

 

 

It's been a difficult winter season for many of us snow enthusiasts, except for those of you up north who began seeing snows in late Autumn (Nov) and really never let up.  One of my close friends who I grew up with in my 20's, moved to the NW burbs of the Twin cities and said he has had 6"+ snow OTG since early December and can confirm this has been one of THE best winters he has lived through.  The only winter he could compare this one to was '13-'14 when he lived in Chicago minus the brutal cold that season, although, it has gotten darn cold this season up in MN so I told him he better get used to it!

 

Mother nature has a tendency to balance things out and in terms of the cyclical nature of this years pattern, after going through nearly the entire Winter with barely any BN temps, the tables may be about to turn as we close out Feb and head into March.  Generally speaking, we have lacked any sustained periods of cold this winter season and a lot has to do with the cold Arctic this year and a strong PV.  However, as the strength of the jet stream wanes, coincide the development of blocking in the regions of the NE PAC/NW NAMER and throughout Canada, Winter is going to make a comeback in a big way for some of us next week.  Just like in recent years, March is going to roar in like a Lion this year.  Before then, though, we have ourselves a fascinating pattern shaping up to close out the last full week of met Winter for winter wx enthusiasts.  I'm afraid we are not, done, yet.......

 

While there isn't much going on in terms of tracking throughout next week, that will change by this time next week when I fully anticipate one of this years strongest winter storms to develop across the heartland.  The jury is still out who will get hit by Ol' Man Winter's fury during the 24th-27th period, but the idea of a slow moving large scale storm system is in the cards.  All the models in the LR are beginning to "sniff" this system out in the extended and its only a matter of time we start seeing some eye popping runs.  IMHO, this may actually turn into a powerful winter storm...possible "B" potential???  Sure looks like it could...

 

 

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_324.png

 

 

 

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS are seeing a major shot of cold post system knifing down the heartland...LRC cycle #1 repeat???

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

Will it be another “2 weeks out” when this one doesn’t verify, as well? Gonna’ be hard to sell this snake oil for mid-March

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