February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[Grizzcoat]

Still snowing at this time for many---

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro both have some good energy ejecting out of the west.  However, the GFS splits the energy and it doesn't amount to much.  The Euro brings it out in one piece.

[Tom]

The long awaited period between the 17th-20th is on track to produce our next winter storm.  Based on the LRC and BSR, there should be a series of storm systems over the next week or so beginning early next week.  The first, in a series, is now starting to show up on the models and the trends at this range are for a decent storm system.  I made a post about a week or so ago how active the N PAC storm track was near the Bearing Sea/Aleutians and this pattern is poised to set up across our Sub beginning promptly next week.

 

Last night's 00z Euro trended S with a cold HP sagging farther S and producing quite an expansive snow shield from the Plains to the GL's...

 

@CentralNeb, I was thinking about you and your fello Nebraskan's when I saw this run...hope its the I-80 west/east special where a lot of us can share in the wealth my friend!

 

 

Interesting trends off the EPS over the past 4 runs suggesting more of a "Banana HP" and seeding plenty of cold air into this system.  Does it continue to press???

[Tom]

There are 3...ok, maybe 4, LR tools in the extended period that suggest Winter may in fact be on the verge of a late season comeback...back loaded???  While not necessarily cold, the potential storm track and residual cold that is available in this pattern may lead us into many more winter storms to track before all sudden done. 

 

 

I'm beginning to see some rather fascinating trends towards the last week of Feb and especially as we get into March.  March may "roar" in a Lion this year as I am predicting an active SW Flow out of the 4 corners region.  Here are a few things that stand out to me as we progress through the final month of met Winter.

 

First, and foremost, the location of the 30mb warming across NW NAMER in the animation below is an early indication that the pressure pattern over this region should flip and show more HP right around the beginning of the last week of Feb. 

 

 

 

Second, all the models are trending towards a neutral PNA and a reversal of the sky high (+) EPO and potential (-) EPO...see maps below....

 

 

Third, as the jet begins to weaken towards the end of the month, based on the GEFS 10mb strat forecasts it is suggesting a "suppressed" STJ roaring into Cali and the southern part of the west coast.  This may be the beginning of a significant pattern change for the desert SW/4 corners region as we head into March.  The LRC's most active storm track had storms forming in the "slot" near the TX Panhandle quite often this year.  I have a gut feeling as the jet weakens and more blocking/ridging develops in the places where it did during the 1st LRC cycle, I believe it will actually develop later this month into March.

 

 

 

 

 

Fourth, the CFSv2 weeklies have that "look" to close out Feb and open March that say...look out baby...I see you "Blizzard Alley"....are we in for a late season rally???

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

Low 40's and a slow rain all night and continuing until noon/early afternoon.

DFW will see about 1-1 1/2". But sat his system moves East totals and flooding will pickup.

 

However, it's good to see an old fashioned slow moving rain system.

We'll be longing for this in July.

[CentralNebWeather]

The long awaited period between the 17th-20th is on track to produce our next winter storm.  Based on the LRC and BSR, there should be a series of storm systems over the next week or so beginning early next week.  The first, in a series, is now starting to show up on the models and the trends at this range are for a decent storm system.  I made a post about a week or so ago how active the N PAC storm track was near the Bearing Sea/Aleutians and this pattern is poised to set up across our Sub beginning promptly next week.

 

Last night's 00z Euro trended S with a cold HP sagging farther S and producing quite an expansive snow shield from the Plains to the GL's...

 

@CentralNeb, I was thinking about you and your fello Nebraskan's when I saw this run...hope its the I-80 west/east special where a lot of us can share in the wealth my friend!

 

 

Interesting trends off the EPS over the past 4 runs suggesting more of a "Banana HP" and seeding plenty of cold air into this system.  Does it continue to press???

That would be something.  NWS Hastings this morning mentioned this but was really on the fence and was actually discounting the Euro due to its poor record around here this winter.  Interesting.  Here is the paragraph below.

 

More of what we`ve seen for the past svrl wks. Low-amplitude flow

that favors a Wrn trof at times. Another Wrn trof is fcst to form

next wk with a Desert SW low breaking off and split flow dvlpg

over the Plns. No sig wx systems are thru Sun and probably

beyond...but we do need to watch Mon. The EC and its ensemble

suggest a fairly potent shrtwv trof will eject out of the Desert

SW. The GFS/CMC and their ensembles barely acknowledge this

potential. Am inclined to dismiss the EC because it`s overplayed

other storms out in the 5-7 day time frame over the past few wks

and they did not pan out. No guarantees that will happen this time

though.

[Niko]

Its sunny attm w deep blue skies. Geez, when was the last time I saw blue skies. Temps are at 27F. There is still some slight snowcover around. Thank goodness for that. As for snowpiles, plenty of them around.

[Niko]

Nice read - thanks amigo!  

 

On the former SMI forum, I was one of, if not the oldest regular poster. I was always chided when mentioning that winters in my youth were worse. It was chalked-up to "fish story syndrome" where the fish that got away gets a little bigger with each passing year of telling the tale. Well, a little nugget found in Deedler's stat write-up confirms my memory was indeed accurate and not just hyperbole. 

 

My folk's place was about 10 miles directly downwind from KFNT so storms rolling thru the county meant we got pretty much what was recorded there. 

 

You can see from this stat, winter during my 6th grade (1975-76) was the snowiest start for that region, even beating 2013-14 by a notable margin thru January. That's saying something! Now keep in mind, that was on the heels of 1974-75, the former record snowiest winter at KFNT (with almost 84" until 2013-14 eventually surpassed by season's end). 

 

KFNT Snowiest Starts list.PNG

 

Add to this the fact that the next (3) winters 77/78/79 were the infamous trio of worst winters in history for the GL's region wrt cold &/or snow and you understand that for my locale, it was really more like the "Fab Five" historic winters in a row! 

 

Ofc, the caveat is that as a younger kid just growing up, I thought all of that historic stuff was "normal", lol. It was only much later that I came to know and fully appreciate the extreme uniqueness of that stretch of winter bliss. 

You bet!

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Friday Afternoon Onwards:

h850 temperatures on the order of -20C will hold by Friday afternoon
and will bring the coldest temperatures of the year, marked by
daytime highs in the teens to lower 20s with wind chills holding in
the single digits. Strong surface high pressure averaging 1034 mb
will travel east from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley by Friday
evening, producing dry conditions across Michigan. Return flow from
the departing high will allow temperatures to rebound back into the
30s by Saturday and then will trend above normal for the early part
of next week. Next chance for accumulating snow to come late Saturday
into Sunday as an upper-level wave quickly travels across the state.

[St Paul Storm]

Currently -17F with a wind chill of -49F in Lancaster, MN on the Canadian border. Still 31F here. Skies now overcast as the front makes its move.

[Stormhunter87]

Hmm come on euro. I want some snow. Crazy dip in temps coming. Wind chill adv. issued too.

[westMJim]

With hazy skies the temperature here is now up to 35 at my house and the latest official reading is 28 at GRR.

The most official snow depth at Grand Rapids this winter has been 6" The record lowest maximum snow cover for a winter at Grand Rapids is 4" in the winters of 1943/44 and 1905/06. There have been 4 years with 5" and 10 more years with 6". At this time while the snow has been on the below average side it looks like it will be how warm this winter has been that will make the record books.

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12Z ICON and GFS look like they might try to put a system together in the Central Plains early next week, but it just doesn't quite do it.  Euro has been on to this system for a couple of days.  We'll see what transpires.

[snowstorm83]

Hmm come on euro. I want some snow. Crazy dip in temps coming. Wind chill adv. issued too.

 

-20 to -25 wind chills tomorrow morning with no snow on ground. Oof 

[CentralNebWeather]

-20 to -25 wind chills tomorrow morning with no snow on ground. Oof 

What might have been.  Over a week ago, the models showed this low lifting up for us in Nebraska and the cold dumping down from the northwest.  Instead the low moves more to the east and the we just get the edge of the cold.  Just hasn't been our year for things coming together unfortunately.

[Hawkeye]

The other models are all trending toward the Euro for next week's system.  The other models had been emphasizing a northern piece of energy that runs out ahead and ruins the system, but this morning they are nixing that idea.

[Tom]

Today's 12z Euro is coming in S with the early week system next week...

[bud2380]

might be thread time soon.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Today's 12z Euro is coming in S with the early week system next week...

Tom, are you trying to draw me in after I threw in the towel last week?  Darn you Euro, now I'm back to tracking.  The fun of weather.

[Tony]

Today's 12z Euro is coming in S with the early week system next week...

As long as we can get 12+" out of this I am in.

[Tom]

Tom, are you trying to draw me in after I threw in the towel last week?  Darn you Euro, now I'm back to tracking.  The fun of weather.

Might be time to sit back and start watching the models as both the GFS/EURO are suggesting the MJO heading towards the colder phases.  The GEFS is a bit amped in the warm phases compared to the Euro but I'm suspect of this happening.  The CFSv2 is less amped and also heading towards Phase 8.  The stars may be trying to align...we'll see in due time...

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

[Tom]

As long as we can get 12+" out of this I am in.

Deduct 4" from today/tonight's system...there's your 1st weenie run for the year that is inside Day 7!

[gimmesnow]

Looks like they are backing off of the warm. Accuweather was calling for 50 degrees on the 23rd, and the whole forecast was a good 5 to 10 warmer.

[Tony]

Deduct 4" from today/tonight's system...there's your 1st weenie run for the year that is inside Day 7!

Ok, now you definitely have my interest. If all models are on board 24hrs out then maybe we have something here.

[Tom]

Ok, now you definitely have my interest. If all models are on board 24hrs out then maybe we have something here.

12z EPS continues the S trend and looks like this may be our next Storm Thread...certainly has that "share the wealth" look to it at this range...

[Tom]

After looking at the 12z EPS run, all I gotta say is....Hmmmmmm....there's that blocking we've been missing....my LR post from earlier today may have some validity.

 

Meantime, here is the EPS snow mean and the signal is growing for our next winter storm...giddy up!

 

 

[james1976]

Missed to the north. Missed to the south. Got a few days to go luckily before a track gets settled on.

[CentralNebWeather]

If this storm would develop and hit early next week, it would be a big surprise for most.  Nothing talked about and not even a mention of snow on weather sites or apps.  I will be interested to see if the NWS Hastings afternoon disco talks about it or not.  This morning they were kind of calling the Euro an outlier vs. GFS and CMC.  The way this winter has gone I will play the pessimism game until proven otherwise.

[Stacsh]

Same model same track as this storm a week out. Pass

[OmahaSnowFan]

South again. Figures....

[Stormhunter87]

Currently 40 degrees and getting some big heavy wet flakes. That has to be some cold air aloft.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings playing the waiting game for the possible storm next week. They mention the Euro run but also say the GFS is not on board. Potential is there but still going to see how things trend.

[jaster220]

FWIW-  Latest Euro has large storm system for the 17-18th. *** edit - actually most guidance seems to have a system in that time frame -- ***

 

Today's 12z Euro is coming in S with the early week system next week...

 

Nice bump S by WPC from yesterday's map fwiw. Keep baby stepping our way pls

 

[jaster220]

Deduct 4" from today/tonight's system...there's your 1st weenie run for the year that is inside Day 7!

 

Yeah, that's a bonafide weenie run by the Euro - Giddy up. Late season suppression just might come through after all, eh? This looked like another MSP special a couple days back. 

[Niko]

Attm, its cloudy w temps at 31F. Snow to my south doesnt seem to want to come north at all. Kinda like hitting a brick wall

[Stormhunter87]

Cpc taking slow steps back again from the above average temps. Wild February. Also still lite snow here but the temps have dropped. 430-530 went from 40 to 30.

[Niko]

Currently 40 degrees and getting some big heavy wet flakes. That has to be some cold air aloft.

Must have an awesome scene out there w those big flakes coming down.

[Mi_Matthew]

Attm, its cloudy w temps at 31F. Snow to my south doesnt seem to want to come north at all. Kinda like hitting a brick wall

Some pixie dust is breaking through the wall over here. Started avout 5 minutes ago.

[Niko]

Some pixie dust is breaking through the wall over here. Started avout 5 minutes ago.

Yep, but its Kentucky snow. This does not impress me. We will see if we can squeeze out some minor accumulations.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GFS mostly lost next week's system again.