February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[Hawkeye]

It got pretty mild in sw Iowa yesterday.  That area warms up so easily compared to northeast Iowa.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/data/2020/02/17/iowa_asos_high.png

[Hawkeye]

Models are struggling to predict how the western/central US energy will evolve early next week.  They are showing anything from a hard nw cutter to a clipperish system.

[CentralNebWeather]

Models are struggling to predict how the western/central US energy will evolve early next week.  They are showing anything from a hard nw cutter to a clipperish system.

Every time I look at a different model or model run I see something different. 

[Clinton]

Models are struggling to predict how the western/central US energy will evolve early next week.  They are showing anything from a hard nw cutter to a clipperish system.

I'll bet on the hard NW cutter.

[james1976]

Low will prolly track over IA

[Tony]

Weak strung out piece of nothing will be the outcome just like we have had all winter.

[Tom]

12z GEFS trended SE like the 00z EPS from last night...only thing that has been consistent have been the huge hits showing up...this run shows more of our members in the game...

[MIKEKC]

#19 please on the GEFS

 

 

Go snow! Finish strong!

[CentralNebWeather]

As horrendous as this winter has been around this part of the country since Dec. 26th, I noticed this morning there are still snow piles from the blizzard of November and snow storm of Dec. 26th.  Can't believe they have held on this long with little to add to them in 2 months.  

[Tom]

Weak strung out piece of nothing will be the outcome just like we have had all winter.

I beg to differ only because next weeks pattern aloft slows down quite a bit with all the blocking showing up.  You can see the trends among all the models.  I'm still on board with a large wound up storm somewhere across the heartland.  

[Tony]

I beg to differ only because next weeks pattern aloft slows down quite a bit with all the blocking showing up.  You can see the trends among all the models.  I'm still on board with a large wound up storm somewhere across the heartland.  

That's fine but we all know how the models have behaved especially this far out. If the pattern does show what you are saying 3 days out then I will jump on board otherwise I'm skeptical.

[Tom]

Colorado buried...this is great news for Arizona and the SW states as the Reservoirs are going to fill up from the snow melt.  Nice to see nature contributing towards resolving a long term problem in the southwest.

 

https://electroverse.net/colorado-is-februburied/

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is showing a hybrid clipper system now.  It's too bad the lead system passing south of Iowa sweeps away most of the moisture.

 

Some of the snow in Indiana is from the lead wave.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

We are still a week out from this "potential" storm.  Many changes so far in the last 2 days of runs, but I have to admit my confidence is not high.  

[Clinton]

The Euro is showing a hybrid clipper system now.  It's too bad the lead system passing south of Iowa sweeps away most of the moisture.

 

Some of the snow in Indiana is from the lead wave.

 

12z EC has a more developed storm.  Long ways to go

 

[Wheezer]

Clinton, thanks for posting the EU ensembles all the time , they are the only thing I trust past 5 days , its much appreciated

[Clinton]

12z EPS Mean, still a large spread

[Tom]

12z EPS....SE trend???

 

 

[Tom]

12z EPS Mean, still a large spread

 

At least we are seeing some large spread the wealth members from both the EPS/GEFS which is the only thing I'm looking at right now.  This has big potential to be the seasons best storm for a lot of us.  The good thing about the teleconnections is that during this period we have a -EPO and a relaxation from the record +AO/NAO that'll help with the flow aloft.  The PNA looks to be neutral.  Good signals at this range.

[Madtown]

13" snow pack atm.

[Clinton]

At least we are seeing some large spread the wealth members from both the EPS/GEFS which is the only thing I'm looking at right now.  This has big potential to be the seasons best storm for a lot of us.  The good thing about the teleconnections is that during this period we have a -EPO and a relaxation from the record +AO/NAO that'll help with the flow aloft.  The PNA looks to be neutral.  Good signals at this range.

Real good sign at this range.  CMC ensembles coming around as well.

[Tom]

13" snow pack atm.

Pretty obvious where the winners have been this season...just across the "cheddar curtain" and points north...you guys have had a decent snow depth for some time now, right?

[CentralNebWeather]

There’s that massive storm again on the 18z GFS next week. If only this could verify. I will remain skeptical but it is fun to imagine.

[Niko]

Currently at 35F under mostly clear skies. Its a gorgeous evening out there. The days have also gotten longer as well.

[Stormhunter87]

The trend across the board is definitely colder. The question now becomes can the moisture be a part of that trend? I sure hope so. All the local Mets and oax have shifted colder and now are at rain/snow.

[Madtown]

Pretty obvious where the winners have been this season...just across the "cheddar curtain" and points north...you guys have had a decent snow depth for some time now, right?

 

Just over 2 weeks I believe, pretty impressive considering the up and down temps!

[gimmesnow]

If it stays cold, my ski hill has a chance at setting a record for the longest ski season. I was talking with one of the people who work there today, they said last Sunday they had their third-highest day of ticket sales, ever.

[FarmerRick]

Lol at the GFS once again...  

 

[jcwxguy]

Ks and kc to Iowa special on gfs

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, crush job from the 00z GFS.  I have spring fever, but I wouldn't pass up something like this.  The problem is the Euro has nothing like this.  It does not dig the energy in the Rockies like the GFS.

 

[hlcater]

Can I get a yea man for that 00z GFS?

[Grizzcoat]

Fantasy Land-

[james1976]

That is the largest weenie run of the year for me

[buzzman289]

00z GFS for the win lol

[Hawkeye]

I think it's safe to say that everything is on the table, from nothing to a biggie.  The op Euro may not be anything like the GFS, but the Euro ensemble members are all over the place (some biggies mixed in).

[hlcater]

The AO/NAO favor a progressive piece of garbage overwhelmingly, so I'm going to go with that.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is on a different planet than the GFS.  It has rain and snow from the lead wave, then nothing.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, haven't been on here in a while. But not much to talk about. Would love one huge storm and then for spring to move in. These constant teases and short blasts of bitter cold air are getting annoying!

 

But, I have been talking to Dean Wysocki and he said the AO doesn't really favor a big storm like this and a more progressive system. YAWN. But hey, stranger things have happened right. Latest CMC is the complete opposite with a dry cold arctic blast with a rainstorm ahead of it. Lovely! 

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro is down to a weak to moderate clipper.  The GFS and Euro both show the energy reaching South Dakota, but at that point they diverge.  The Euro shows a significant lobe of energy up in Canada that dives down and keeps the Dakota energy moving e/se, so nothing can slow down and spin up into something big.  The GFS does not show any kicker energy, so the Dakota energy stalls, which allows the backside jet streak to dig south in the Rockies and southern plains and spin up into a major storm.

[Tom]

The lead storm showing up late this weekend into Monday needs to be watched for a marginal set up for snow on the northern edge. Models have a tough time figuring out how much cold air there is to work with in these type of events. For example, the last system that tracked over the region, days before the event, the models were predicting there would be more rain than snow and many of you saw snow instead. I think this will be another similar setup. I'm seeing more evidence among the EPS/GEFS members that there could be a swath of snow on the northern periphery. Depending on how strong it develops, some dynamics may be in play to support more snow in the forecast.

 

Meantime, the 00z EPS continues with a more southerly track with the second system and taking on a more TX Pan Handle Hook up into the OHV. Once again, this has been the hot spot in recent weeks where storms enter the "slot" and then track towards the OHV. I know there has been some discussion on here regarding teleconnections not favoring a wound up storm, however, it's not always about the AO/NAO but moreso where exactly the blocking is setting up. That being said, the good Ol' "Banana HP" across S Canada is going to be a key component. There is no down playing it, a massive and expansive HP will grow across the northern tier of the U.S./Canada allowing the flow to slow down quite a bit. Just need to see the models figure out what to do with the pieces of energy and how much they can dig.

 

 

At this range, both the GEFS/EPS are very similar in terms of placement of the HP & SLP. This pattern screams to me there will be a ton of moisture available to tap. Not only that, but both the LRC/BSR indicate this could be one of the more stronger signature storms of the season. Let's see where we go from here.