Jump to content
The Weather Forums

February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 929
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I went out to DeSoto on Saturday this past weekend and caught a couple of good shots. Saw at least 1/2 a dozen of Bald Eagles and several other large hawks. My favorite shot is probably the first one

Happy Valentines Day to my weather buddies!   Thanks for all your friendship.  

Ft. Worth is clear, brilliant skies, and 26 very chilly degrees   We expect to see a high of 47* and a low of 32*.   The snow and ice remained just west of me...of course, but this image is very muc

Posted Images

12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

One small step for model....one Major Step for SMI score!   ;)  Can't resist having fun with the bone tossed my way (for one run anyway). Warming up my Peanuts comic image for next Euro run.. :rolleyes:

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Jaster, start a thread amigo, what are ya waiting for. Looks like your area gets pounded w the secondary defo. Chicago does really good as well.

 

See post above as to why I can't trust a run or two of the Euro/GFS/GEM/ICON/UKMET, etc..  The 17-18th storm was less "timing dependent" for us than this 2-pc scenario. I do think we'll have some energy moving thru tho, just to be clear

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EPS expanded & shifted S/SE with the main snow shield and is targeting a lot of the GL's region and points just west.

 

B)  Nice trends amigo! Keep 'em coming

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Also worth noting that Euro is way colder than the 00Z run.

More than likely bc the MJO no longer is heading into the warmer phases and staying in the "null" phase and possibly re-emerge in Phase 3???

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

See post above as to why I can't trust a run or two of the Euro/GFS/GEM/ICON/UKMET, etc..  The 17-18th storm was less "timing dependent" for us than this 2-pc scenario. I do think we'll have some energy moving thru tho, just to be clear

B)

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is backing off on the cold.  Shocking. 

 

Could you be a little more vague wrt when? Thx

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

More than likely bc the MJO no longer is heading into the warmer phases and staying in the "null" phase and possibly re-emerge in Phase 3???

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

 

Difficult image to read, but looks to clip the corner of P3, but then a very low-amp P4?

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is backing off on the cold.  Shocking. 

Not the EPS as it turned significantly colder overall from the western GL's and points west.  Quiet the battle zone setting up shop across the Sub which will keep things pretty active and interesting.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

29.12z Euro totals across S/SWMI actually come via (3) events. This Sat looks LES/CF/Clipper-ish, then the 1st wave on Tue-ish, and the final and most interesting 2nd storm wave on Thur-ish.  So, it's not one big storm fwiw

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not the EPS as it turned significantly colder overall from the western GL's and points west.  Quite the battle zone setting up shop across the Sub which will keep things pretty active and interesting.

 

Classic Feb scenario of late, eh??

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Jaster, start a thread amigo, what are ya waiting for. Looks like your area gets pounded w the secondary defo. Chicago does really good as well.

 

We're about 5.5 days out on the Euro from wave 1 getting it's act together and producing snow on the west end of the Sub. Getting close to the range when a thread is appropriate imho  ;)

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

:rolleyes:  Cannot seem to shake this S Lake Michigan "bubble of warmth" during our winter events this season. It's like the CF settles south everywhere else (even eastward here), but not in that bathtub region. 

 

UKie at h144

 

20200129 12z_UK 2m Temps_h144.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We're about 5.5 days out on the Euro from wave 1 getting it's act together and producing snow on the west end of the Sub. Getting close to the range when a thread is appropriate imho  ;)

 

Should check out the 18z GFS.  Looking good so far.  Lot's of agreement between models.  May be thread worthy. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z runs were good but the 18z GFS was north.  To early to tell, but it looks like some of us will get a good storm.  Your area looks good so far hope the trends continue.

 

Yep, 18z GFS back to the 1 stronger and north wave scenario. Let's see what the 0z suite is thinking..

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON focusing on stronger 2nd wave. At h168 looking like might be good for SMI. 998 mb coming NE thru OHV

 

Edit - Strange run. Has 2 SLP's in the OHV within 12 hrs of each other. First is all rain Wed evening/night. 2nd looking great for Chicago at EOR but might be another rainer here. Lots to sort out yet. Could be fun to watch unfold.  

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep. And the 1st two are rain or whiff and the 3rd looking warm for mby...Pass! 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

@ ICON 

 

The first 1" of the two shown here is from this weekend's questionable dusting which might just be white rain per temps (36F in grid). Need that final wave to stay south and have some cold air involved at least.  ;)

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

Can't wait for my next warm 2" drenching. New month, new drenchings on tap. Paybacks for great winters are a b*tch

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro holds steady and bucks the N trend of the GFS-- also this is total snow and includes Fridays event -- Kucheras would be higher...sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z Euro...the big difference in tonight's Euro run is the second piece of energy that comes out of the Rockies has decided to break off a smaller piece while the main energy digs south into N Mexico/TX.  This results into a southern Low that tracks up from the Gulf states and rides up the Apps towards OH/PA a couple days later.  Another plausible solution in this complex weather pattern.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

00z EPS/GEFS...the models seem to be struggling on the idea if this will be more or less a strung out wave or an actual SLP that runs up the frontal boundary.  Needless to say, it certainly looks like there will be a system to track so it prob should be thread worthy.

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_168.png

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_168.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the past 7-10 days, the models were sniffing out a potential SSW event during the opening days of Feb but there was some doubt it would indeed happen given the strength of the PV this season.  It appears there is no doubt about it, as all the models are showing a rather significant warming event at 10mb to cross over the Pole into Canada.

 

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_11.png

 

 

Once this burst passes on by, there seems to be growing indication that a second and potentially stronger/disruptive event may be brewing during the second week of the month over Eurasia.  Will this create a Cross Polar Flow???

 

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

Last night's JMA weeklies came in and are in agreement with the CFSv2 weeklies for Week 2 but diverge in the pattern for Week 3-4.  Here is the Week 2 forecast...as you can see, it is suggesting a wet/active pattern along with a cooler, but not to cold, which would be a favorable wintry set up.

 

Y202001.D2912_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202001.D2912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Week 3-4 it fires up the Aleutian Ridge which pumps the SER like we saw last year.  The question is, does this ridge fire up in the N PAC or NE PAC???  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later today.

 

 

Y202001.D2912_gl2.png

 

Y202001.D2912_gl0.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I would like to propose a new rule regarding the GFS. I don't know what to call it. But the rule is

 

As the GFS reaches the end of the forecast, the likelihood of it showing a large storm approaches 1.

 

Anything past 5 days is laughable on that model.  It's always a blizzard at 300 hours and -20 at 384 here at the end of every run since December.  It's long range has earned an F- grade this year.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The epic and historic winter of 2019-20 is set to continue. Keep living in Fantasy land with your wishcasts using the models that have been wrong all winter!

Yes, you are correct just like you have been with all your other "6" posts.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, you are correct just like you have been with all your other "6" posts.

 

"The sky is blue" (when we see it lol)

 

..another shocking truth in our wx world

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

LR tidbit from a Met at LOT

 

ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February.  

 

Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here.

 

Chicagoans seem to perking up, at least for a portion of Feb. I think wks3&4 are a big "?" tho

  • Like 4

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Last night's 00z EPS is about as wintry as I've seen it all season long for many of us on here, including those farther south in the KC/MO regions.  The period between the 10th-15th has real potential to become a big producer in the snow dept for the majority of our Sub.  Even though the AO/NAO are going to sky rocket into (+) territory, the saving grace will be the (-) EPO pattern along with a slightly (-) PNA.  As was mentioned by the LOT met above, which I have opined, there will be a window of more opportunity for those of us east/south compared to last Feb as I believe a hyper active period is forthcoming.

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I took some time this morning trying to figure out where the pattern may be heading throughout this month. All signals are pointing towards a SW Flow pattern which paints an interesting picture for the majority of our Sub Forum. Unfortunately, the snow geese in the East may not fair well in this type of pattern. Could you imagine how abysmal winter wx enthusiasts feel out East along the EC??? I don't even want to think about how desperate they are for seeing some winter wx.

 

 

On the other hand, our Sub will likely become a benefactor of what is transpiring across the N PAC as we roll through the rest of this month. It is becoming likely that "Shades of Feb '19" are in the cards and I'll show you what I'm thinking.

 

 

Take a look at these maps below of an active storm track that is orientated in a SW/NE direction across the Aleutian Islands. There is literally a storm train lining up with back-to-back-to-back systems lining up and suggesting an action packed period between Feb 20th - 29th. I can’t stop to think how impressive this situation may very well set up across the heartland. As long as we can maintain a -EPO pattern and the PNA doesn't head lower than -1/-2 standard deviation, I think a lot of us on here will be pretty happy in the snow dept.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_11.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_31.png

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_46.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...