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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


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Alright guys, as we gear up for a Big sporting event this weekend, will we also be gearing up for a potential snowstorm early next week???  After a brief spike in temps across the majority of our Sub this coming weekend, the pattern will turn more wintry as cold air will begin to press its way south coupled with energy that will eject out of the Rockies and the Baja of California.  

 

The models are struggling if the energy that comes out of the Rockies in one piece or if its a weaker piece and a secondary more potent wave develops a couple days later.  The GFS is the only model that is suggesting a more progressive pattern and has the energy come out quicker while the GGEM/EURO hold back and develop a stronger second wave a couple days later.

 

Let's dive in...

 

06z GFS....

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

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Nebraska weather, Sunday 66 degrees, Tuesday 20 degrees with low wind chills and accumulating snow. One reason among many that I love living on the Central Plains.

I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol

12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special    

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Glad you got a thread up bud! Perfect timing. I think we sit well for once.

 

Go Chiefs!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office is keeping it short and sweet this morning.

 

Super Bowl weekend will feature near zonal flow aloft with
southwesterly low level flow bringing in warm temperatures with
50s and 60s likely on Sunday, a cold front will setup across far
northern Missouri so cooler readings possible up north.

Models continue to show a potential winter storm on the horizon for
late Monday through Wednesday. Still too early to get into the
details. This could impact any potential Super Bowl celebrations
across the Metro area early next week. Stay Tuned...

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I got the Chiefs in the Superbowl and a storm to track, this is better than Christmas!

 

IF both "Big Dance" and models trend favorably, indeed it will be! Best of luck on both buddy! 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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From OAX forecast:  

Tuesday

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

 

 

 

From the OAX discussion: 

Monday through Wednesday:
The strong shortwave will strengthen and move from the Pacific
Northwest over the central CONUS. Confidence is low on exact
details beginning on Monday. It is likely there will be a
significant cool down Monday with high temperatures about 20
degrees cooler than the day before. The system should produce
significant precipitation somewhere in the central CONUS, but
medium term guidance varies greatly in timing and location. Cool
temperatures should be long lived as temperatures should moderate
at the end of the forecast period.

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20200130 0z Euro Snowfall h216.png

 

Euro with a "Beast" just to my east! Slams SEMI and Niko/Matt. Could be a little bit NW for kismet here. Verbatim tho, it would be an excellent deja-vu event for the 2004-05 analog. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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So we're looking at yet another nice upper trough ejecting into the central US, but then gets sheared out.  What's new.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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attachicon.gif20200130 0z Euro Snowfall h216.png

 

Euro with a "Beast" just to my east! Slams SEMI and Niko/Matt. Could be a little bit NW for kismet here. Verbatim tho, it would be an excellent deja-vu event for the 2004-05 analog. 

 

All the misses north and west this year, this is going to go south for me.  Pun intended.  

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Being this far out, I don't think LOT could hav written their AFD any better. 

 

Not worth spending too much time talking about the post Monday
time frame. The possibilities run the gamut from no storm system
affecting the area in the GEM, to a potential shovel-able snow
maker, to icy mix, to maybe just rain. There is some clustering
in the
ECMWF ensembles for a surface low in eastern IL/western IN
by Tuesday night, so the GEM`s nothing solution seems unlikely.
Beyond that, really no sense in getting into potential details.
No changes made to NBM which has chance
pops through the
potentially problematic time frame with some transition from rain
to snow. Certainly the Tuesday/Wednesday time period bears
watching next week.

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Looks like someone will get a good snowfall. How far south does the cold air sink? What will be the axis of the 500mb trof? Will the main energy come out all at once or in two pieces?

 

Eating our heart out in the Mid-Atlantic.....

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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GFS trend is to hold more energy back.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12Z ICON gives Nebraska a 3-6" snow depending on location.  Heavier in the west and southwest according to Tropical Tidbits.  Looks like my area is a general 3-4".  There is going to be a stripe of snow someplace across the plains, question as always is where does it set up and does it want to split apart.  Many questions remain in imo.

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Should I have been banded, probably. When I get board, I listen to music....

 

Love this pattern. Pivot point looks south of lake Erie. Is this the final sullusion u. No.

 

attachicon.gifGFSUS_prec_snow_153.png

Thin stripes of snow like that this far out tend to not end well

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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12Z ICON gives Nebraska a 3-6" snow depending on location.  Heavier in the west and southwest according to Tropical Tidbits.  Looks like my area is a general 3-4".  There is going to be a stripe of snow someplace across the plains, question as always is where does it set up and does it want to split apart.  Many questions remain in imo.

 

ICON has a major amplification bias outside 60hrs....

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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All the misses north and west this year, this is going to go south for me.  Pun intended.  

 

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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^^^ I'm not savvy wrt the 500 mb Vort maps, but that looks potent as h*ll to my untrained eyes!

 

 

Meanwhile, GRR coins a new term for our model woes.. :lol:

 

-- A signal remains for some snow mid next week --

The system for mid next week remains in the models both the
deterministic and the ensembles. The shortwave in question is in
the middle of the Pacific Ocean with a long way to go before it
interacts potentially with our area. Models will continue to
bobble
north and south with a swath of snow before it zeros in on
a location. The time frame of concern is next Tuesday and
Wednesday. The operational GFS is quicker and further north with
the snow and the Euro is slower and south. Bottom line is we have
many model runs to go before this is a concern. Some of the models
are trying to merge the northern and southern streams which would
lead to a deeper slower low like the Euro.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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If you look actually looked at the run you would see it splits the storm in several pieces weird run for sure.

 

Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew).

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew).

I think you do also.  You seem to get at least a descent hit no matter how the run goes

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Well, maybe we are about to see the 2014 analog trotted out? Seems like whichever model takes whatever trajectory, they mostly converge to a decent hit for SMI. Too far out to count on much, but as posted earlier, I think we sit well with this one (ORD > DTW crew).

Thats right and take that to the bank!! :D ;)

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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This morning's UK and Euro are both weak, strung-out garbage.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro showing about 24-30 hours of light/mod snowfall for N IL/S MI....looks good for those out in NE also...

Awwww yeah moar rain.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Wat a crusher that is for SMI. Dang! ;)

 

That'd be nice for sure. Let me in on your SEMI crushers for once will ya??   ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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