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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


Tom

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Wat a crusher that is for SMI. Dang! ;)

 

That'd be nice for sure. Let me in on your SEMI crushers for once will ya??   ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That'd be nice for sure. Let me in on your SEMI crushers for once will ya??   ;)

:lol:

Sure thing buddy....I'll just have a bulldozer bring ya some there at Marshall........ :P

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Bring on spring!!

 

I think it's coming...this weekend, no?   ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DVN fairly tempered enthusiasm for this event.  Possibly headline worthy, but would clearly be a Winter Wx Advisory at most based on the way they are talking and what models are showing.

 

For snow amounts, or possibly rain amounts, models are generally
showing a progressive wave, and that should keep amounts from
lasting long enough in the cold air to produce a large amount of
snow, as there`s no function beyond frontogenesis to draw moisture
over the cold airmass, vs a closed mid level low, which is not
indicated. Still, this next system is our next opportunity for a
headlined event, and will continue to broadly outlook a threat of
snow/rain with it.

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DMX's take-

 

3.) Another more potent wintry system may impact Iowa Monday night
through Tuesday night...

Models have displayed excellent run-to-run consistency in pushing
some sort of shortwave through the Plains region, primarily across
Missouri. There seems to be a pronounced baroclinic zone through
the NE quadrant of this feature that looks to traverse across
Iowa, primarily south-central to southern Iowa... very possibly
impacting Interstate-80 as well.

Completing the picture, a 1030mb high looks to eject off the
Rockies along the US/Canada border, and propagate southeastward.
As such, strong CAA fills in on north of the boundary area,
serving to convert precip to snow. Long-range models coming into
decent agreement to where a non-Canadian/GEM blend seems to be
the best route to take. With the projected pressure gradient, wind
speeds could play a role in impacts via visibility reduction.
Snowfall amounts could be enough to make roads snow-covered and
slippery, especially in southern Iowa. Forecast confidence is not
high enough to produce specific amounts at this time, but this
system certainly bears watching.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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18z EC through the first wave.  Second wave is taking shape at the end of the run with snow moving NE out of Texas and Oklahoma.  Would also include any snow that may fall tomorrow.

1580925600-XE9dyNZOTro.png

 

Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lol

I don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave.

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I don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave.

 

Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? 

Yes it has.  Many days left so we shouldn't loose hope yet.  I still think your area will at least do ok with this one.

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Yeah, and 0z ICON's it's normal hot self tonight with tons of rain up here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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06z GFS...this is the first run whereby it's showing a stronger secondary southern stream wave tracking up towards the OHV which the Euro has been flashing.  We may be seeing this become an extension to this system and include it as part of the thread.  1-2 punch???

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The 00z Ukie also on board with a stronger secondary wave coming up from the deep southern Gulf states and tracking near the OHV towards the end of the run.  This is basically what the Euro had been showing in previous runs along with the Canadian.  With some blocking showing up draped across the N GL's/Ontario, this may very well trend towards an interesting scenario for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

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NOAA:

 

Dry and mild conditions on Monday give way to an ensuing cooler and
wetter pattern on Tuesday as the cyclonic side of an elongated trough
pivoting through the desert SW provides ascent opportunities
downstream, over the Midwest. Chances for rain/snow turns to all
snow by the middle of next week with low confidence on timing at this
point. Wednesday should be the messiest day next week with higher
QPF expected and temps near freezing. Stay Tuned for further updates.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton-

 

This should be your month (Feb) for snow and hopefully for others in the deep south that have been wanted to see snow so badly.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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