Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Clinton- This should be your month (Feb) for snow and hopefully for others in the deep south that have been wanted to see snow so badlyHope so bud, I should have a few chances. But that AO and NAO 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Hope so bud, I should have a few chances. But that AO and NAO I know, but don't worry about that because Ma Nature will help us and make the EPO n PNA (-)! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z ICON and GFS are both south and weak this morning, barely have anything for Cedar Rapids and points north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS has four pieces of energy now. It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region. Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS has four pieces of energy now. It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region. Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today. Good hit for Niko 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like a solid 3-5 event again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Good hit for NikoYes Sir! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS showing a substantial ice storm a county to my South, with mostly snow here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Canadian is solid from Missouri to Michigan, nothing for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z GGEM really honing in on a secondary wave that cuts up towards IN/OH....this system has big potential for the eastern Sub...showing snow falling from S TX up into the GL's. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Crap. Now the UK is waving bye-bye to the northern half of Iowa, shifting south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Ukie further south as well 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z GGEM really honing in on a secondary wave that cuts up towards IN/OH....this system has big potential for the eastern Sub...showing snow falling from S TX up into the GL's. I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Crap. Now the UK is waving bye-bye to the northern half of Iowa, shifting south.First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north.Knowing the bias of the GFS being to progressive with the energy, it was sheared out this run but the GGEM/EURO/UKIE all are starting show a more developed SLP. Today's 12z GGEM developed later in the run but the trend is what we should look for at this stage of the game. Some of the 12z GEFS members are developing this second wave into a formidable storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu.Long duration snow event, I'm good with that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year. True, but we've seen it waffle back and forth wrt emphasizing each wave. Only time will tell if the trend is a blip or #freal 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Long duration snow event, I'm good with that.Absolutely bud! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Long duration snow event, I'm good with that. Hafta keep in line with winter's M.O. here! Mix then maybe snow.. Come on already, get us a legit snowstorm without the contamination BS - Thanks! - Wintry mix late Monday night and Tuesday - A low pressure system moving northeast across the lower OhioValley region is expected to bring a wintry mix of pcpn to ourfcst area as early as Monday night but mainly for Tuesday. It istoo early to get into too many specifics. However at this timethermal profiles suggest a mainly snow event for our northernforecast area with the wintry mix near to south of I-96 Tuesday.Precipitation will then transition to snow across our areaWednesday as cold air advects in on the back side of the system. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 I am starting to think maybe the thread should be changed to 2/4-2/6 or 7. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Keep moving south plz. I don't want an ice storm. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like a solid 3-5 event again I would do anything for 3" of snow. We got that much everytime I breathed last year, but now I think it's just physically impossible to get that much snow. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GEFS is pretty weak now as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GEFS is pretty weak now as well. Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like a strung out mess till maybe next Wed/Thurs with "potential" for something of meaning in the eastern lakes Thurs....next 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 The energy is too strung-out and positively tilted. Much of the moisture coming up from the gulf just veers eastward through the Ohio Valley. We need some more-focused, neutral/negatively-tilted energy to help pull moisture back into the cold sector, but there is none. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles" This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 The Euro has shifted the better, final piece of energy to the Appalachians/East coast. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 specialAlways good to have the Euro on your side. So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event. I'll have to read the afternoon disco. A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Always good to have the Euro on your side. So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event. I'll have to read the afternoon disco. A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday. 12z EPS coming in good agreement with the Euro Op....this is through the 7th which includes the second wave as many ensemble members are showing up. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nebraska weather, Sunday 66 degrees, Tuesday 20 degrees with low wind chills and accumulating snow. One reason among many that I love living on the Central Plains. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special Can only hope it's correct this time. Tbh, after the way the models handled the 11-12th multi-wave "fiasco storm" so poorly, I'm more than a little concerned. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 NWS Hastings afternoon disco. I like it. LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020 The weather takes a turn for the colder on Monday behind thisfront. Highs are only expected to be in the upper 20s and 30s,and this could occur in the morning in some locations. Slightchances for light snow also arrive during the daytime, althoughbetter chances won`t arrive until the main storm system begins tomove out of the Rockies Monday night. Models continue to show this system beginning as a nice closedlow a 500mb, but filling and becoming more positively tilted asit moves across the central Plains on Tuesday. Nevertheless,models have been consistently producing a swath of 2 to 5 inchesof snow across the center of the forecast area, most of whichwould fall during the day on Tuesday. With the cold airmass inplace, this snow should be pretty fluffy, with snow ratiospossibly in the 15:1 to 20:1 range. Wind gusts to around 35 MPHare also expected to accompany the system, which will lead toadditional issues from blowing and drifting snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. It cannot even get futility correct. It's futile at futility.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Rather disappointing that WPC does not find anything impressing them into painting sig snows east of the mountain west next week during the time-frame. Sad state of affairs continues.. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looking forward to seeing how all of this will turn out. Its still Friday. Lots and lots of changes will happen this far out. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z EPS ensembles. Some show a good hit with the second wave. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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