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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


Tom

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Hope so bud, I should have a few chances.  But that AO and NAO  :(

I know, but don't worry about that because Ma Nature will help us and make the EPO n PNA (-)! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z ICON and GFS are both south and weak this morning, barely have anything for Cedar Rapids and points north.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS has four pieces of energy now.  It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region.

 

Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north.

Knowing the bias of the GFS being to progressive with the energy, it was sheared out this run but the GGEM/EURO/UKIE all are starting show a more developed SLP.  Today's 12z GGEM developed later in the run but the trend is what we should look for at this stage of the game.  Some of the 12z GEFS members are developing this second wave into a formidable storm.

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First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.

Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.

 

True, but we've seen it waffle back and forth wrt emphasizing each wave. Only time will tell if the trend is a blip or #freal

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Long duration snow event, I'm good with that.

Absolutely bud! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Long duration snow event, I'm good with that.

 

Hafta keep in line with winter's M.O. here! Mix then maybe snow.. :rolleyes: 

 

Come on already, get us a legit snowstorm without the contamination BS - Thanks!

 

 

- Wintry mix late Monday night and Tuesday -

 

A low pressure system moving northeast across the lower Ohio

Valley region is expected to bring a wintry mix of pcpn to our

fcst area as early as Monday night but mainly for Tuesday. It is

too early to get into too many specifics. However at this time

thermal profiles suggest a mainly snow event for our northern

forecast area with the wintry mix near to south of I-96 Tuesday.

Precipitation will then transition to snow across our area

Wednesday as cold air advects in on the back side of the system.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I am starting to think maybe the thread should be changed to 2/4-2/6 or 7. :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like a solid 3-5 event again

 

I would do anything for 3" of snow. We got that much everytime I breathed last year, but now I think it's just physically impossible to get that much snow. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GEFS is pretty weak now as well.  

 

Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The energy is too strung-out and positively tilted.  Much of the moisture coming up from the gulf just veers eastward through the Ohio Valley.  We need some more-focused, neutral/negatively-tilted energy to help pull moisture back into the cold sector, but there is none.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles"

 

This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. 

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12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special

Always good to have the Euro on your side.  So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event.  I'll have to read the afternoon disco.  A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday.  

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Always good to have the Euro on your side.  So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event.  I'll have to read the afternoon disco.  A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday.  

12z EPS coming in good agreement with the Euro Op....this is through the 7th which includes the second wave as many ensemble members are showing up.

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12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special

 

Can only hope it's correct this time. Tbh, after the way the models handled the 11-12th multi-wave "fiasco storm" so poorly, I'm more than a little concerned. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco. I like it.

 

LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020

 

The weather takes a turn for the colder on Monday behind this

front. Highs are only expected to be in the upper 20s and 30s,

and this could occur in the morning in some locations. Slight

chances for light snow also arrive during the daytime, although

better chances won`t arrive until the main storm system begins to

move out of the Rockies Monday night.

 

Models continue to show this system beginning as a nice closed

low a 500mb, but filling and becoming more positively tilted as

it moves across the central Plains on Tuesday. Nevertheless,

models have been consistently producing a swath of 2 to 5 inches

of snow across the center of the forecast area, most of which

would fall during the day on Tuesday. With the cold airmass in

place, this snow should be pretty fluffy, with snow ratios

possibly in the 15:1 to 20:1 range. Wind gusts to around 35 MPH

are also expected to accompany the system, which will lead to

additional issues from blowing and drifting snow.

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This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. 

 

It cannot even get futility correct. It's futile at futility.. :lol:   :rolleyes:  :wacko:

 

NWS CVG Ohio.jpeg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:(  Rather disappointing that WPC does not find anything impressing them into painting sig snows east of the mountain west next week during the time-frame. Sad state of affairs continues..

 

 

20200131 hazards_d3_7.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking forward to seeing how all of this will turn out. Its still Friday. Lots and lots of changes will happen this far out.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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