2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[snowstorm83]

GFS looks good for our Texas member at least. DFW gets blasted on Wednesday. 

[Clinton]

00z ICON big hit esp for Tom and Jaster.

[Grizzcoat]

GDR for the WIN!!!

[Clinton]

GDR for the WIN!!!

The GFS has done gone mad.  Smashes Texas throw it out!

[Mi_Matthew]

I can't even defend it anymore. You're on your own GFS! Unless you're right...

[Niko]

The GFS has done gone mad.  Smashes Texas throw it out!

[Grizzcoat]

It seems the GFS and Euro have actually trended towards the CMC. Even DMX a couple days ago basically threw it out.

[jaster220]

00z ICON looking interesting...

 

Might be the nicest run for Chicago yet! 

[Grizzcoat]

CMC also hammers N.TX

[Mi_Matthew]

CMC also hammers N.TX

Yep. GFS may have found company.

[Grizzcoat]

Other than the ICON at long range (your on your own with that) today's theme has been suppression of the 2nd piece of energy. And basically no first wave. So ya got that going for ya - which is nice.

[Clinton]

00z CMC

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

[The Snowman]

Steep hill to climb when only the ICON's showing a snowy solution

 

White flag's waving 

[bud2380]

With the incredible run to run inconsistency being shown by all models it’s hard to trust anything.

[Hawkeye]

Well, the Euro ain't giving up, yet.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...will you be my Hero???  Given the incredible differences among all the models, the Euro has been the most consistent.  Actually, both the Euro/Ukie have been on board with a similar scenario except the fact that the Ukie is about a few hundred miles east compared to the Euro.  The Ukie is not backing down on an amped up storm dropping down into the low 970's.  Ride the Euro/Ukie until things change?

 

 

00z GEFS....either this will be a big coupe or bust but the trend is weaker and SE...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

This whole deal is up in the air. Looks like a lot of us will be pulling our hair out. Good luck my friend....

[Grizzcoat]

06 GFS not buying into the Euro. BIG differences.  Neither does mby little of anything but the GFS has sniffed more out than what most think on past systems. I have no clue other than the GFS has been better within 96 hours than I can remember.

[Tom]

I took a look at all the 51 members of the EPS ensembles and many of them show a similar signature per the Ukie (plenty of 980's/970's mixed in) and tracking up the OHV.  I'm seeing a trend among the members phasing the storm as it tracks up the west side of the App's/OHV.  My original thoughts stand and that this storm has more tricks up its sleeves.  That ridge to the east of the storm is ideal for a system to go neg tilt.  Haven't seen a set up like this all season long and it's intriguing to say the least.  Could this finally be the beast??

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

12Z run is going to be big! Things should settle down. As an aside: I too am empessesd with the GFS, aka, the old man.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Erie still looks like pivot point.

 

[clintbeed1993]

This piece of garbage doesn't even deserve it's own thread

[Wxmidatlantic]

This piece of garbage doesn't even deserve it's own thread

Weather is all about volatility. If you could look at this synopsis and not create a thread, you are ignorant. Everyone is a great weatherman 12 hrs out....

[Wxmidatlantic]

I hate it when the ***** goes away.,

 

[Clinton]

6z Euro at hr 90 looks great for mby.

[Wxmidatlantic]

I'm waiting.,

 

https://youtu.be/Owe3kuOntxc

[Clinton]

6z ICON has snow still falling east of the Mississippi and looks a lot like the Ukie.

[Clinton]

6z EC

[Clinton]

6z EPS mean

[OKwx2k4]

Is Andie gonna steal my snow??? Lol.

[bud2380]

This storm is beyond weird. Everyday the main energy seems to delay even more. Initially models showed snow breaking out Monday. Now it might be Thursday before we see the heaviest snow.

[jaster220]

This piece of garbage doesn't even deserve it's own thread

 

Why? Because the action has shifted away from yby? This whole season has been trash for model performance/thread creation (except the 1/17-18th). It's almost a lock that as soon as a thread trigger gets pulled, the models immediately begin backpedaling on their initial portrayals. It's gotten to the point where just discussing in the general thd might not be a bad thing, and when it's "game-time" just do an OBS thread. These multi-wave scenarios have been too much for the models and not a single one has really brought much here (2" on the NYE secondary). Maybe we on the east end finally, after waiting all winter, get one of these to deliver the goods. Thx for your post tho. Gave me a chance to speak my mind on the sad shape of storm tracking. 

[Wxmidatlantic]

https://youtu.be/Wb0Jmy-JYbA

[Wxmidatlantic]

Reallity rolls. Sometimes we just cry.,

 

https://youtu.be/tOCCvN8YDuc

[jaster220]

I took a look at all the 51 members of the EPS ensembles and many of them show a similar signature per the Ukie (plenty of 980's/970's mixed in) and tracking up the OHV.  I'm seeing a trend among the members phasing the storm as it tracks up the west side of the App's/OHV.  My original thoughts stand and that this storm has more tricks up its sleeves.  That ridge to the east of the storm is ideal for a system to go neg tilt.  Haven't seen a set up like this all season long and it's intriguing to say the least.  Could this finally be the beast??

 

Great post buddy! The primary issue during DJ has been lack of adequate cold infusion. How are the thermals looking per your review? Hopefully better than the marginal conditions common with all previous events around here. 

 

As for the status of the current threat. Imho, unless this just goes "poof" due to a lack of cold or phasing, all the globals are currently showing a decent to possibly big storm. GFS furthest E, Euro furthest W with ICON/UK/GGEM somewhere in between. Am I reading that correctly?

 

I like where we sit attm, especially if you split the difference between the Euro/UKie for heaviest swath:

 

[jaster220]

 

The Ukie is not backing down on an amped up storm dropping down into the low 970's.  Ride the Euro/Ukie until things change?

 

Is there a place to see the UK with it's surface reflection of the SLP? Not finding it on Pivotal. -Thx

[jaster220]

Ok, so I did find one map selection with the UK MSLP (tho I was hoping to see the precip type/shield style). And as Tom already pointed out, while both the Euro and Ukie want to get this down to low 970's they are a long ways apart geographically speaking. 

 

Euro

 

 

UK

 

 

So, attm we have decent agreement on a strong system with placement/timing to be dialed-in. 

 

Alright, I've had my best fun tracking a potential since Nov. Models are free to destroy my hopes again with the 18z suite..

[Niko]

6Z EURO at 90HR looks impressive w the position of the low. A ton of moisture and the GOM is open for business as well.

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON