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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


Tom

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Great, yet another sick twist by the models within 48 hrs. Done with this storm following if this is again another nothing burger event in the end.  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yikes! No bueno...

 

We finally get a decent shot of cold, but the HP comes down on our heads and squashes this wave instead of allowing it to grow like it normally would with a HP properly placed. Blocking done wrong

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Great, yet another sick twist by the models within 48 hrs. Done with this storm following if this is again another nothing burger event in the end.  :rolleyes:

It could be glitch. I wouldn't worry too much. Models still cant figure this one out. Let the fun continue! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 12ZGEFS  is spot on for my area. Great hit!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Detroit metro still finishes with 4-6" on Euro. Not the largest amounts but not bad either with how this Winter has gone.

Very well said. Exactly!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15z SREF not sure what to make of this.  Very different from how the other models have gone today.

1581087600-96MxVHL16QM.png

Nails your area nicely.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From CLE. It's very rare that they mention Toledo. Usually they like to pretend their CWA ends in Sandusky and Toledo doesn't exist.

 

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The short term begins Wednesday night with precipitation approaching
the area from the southwest. PoP chances quickly ramp up to
categorical across the area by 05Z Thursday, supported by
strong isentropic lift. Precipitation will exit much of the area
by 18Z, with only chance PoPs remaining. Precipitation type
will be tricky Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
mesoscale and global models continuing to offer varying
temperature profiles. As a result, a mixed-bag of rain, sleet,
freezing rain, and snow are all possible across the area. The
ECMWF and Canadian are on the colder side, the NAM on the warmer
side, while the GFS is in between both solutions. Have taken a
model blend of these solutions which pushes an area of sleet and
freezing rain from our southern tier, northwards towards the
lakeshore by Thursday morning. Storm total ice accumulations
range from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with the
heaviest freezing rain to occur between 06-12Z Thursday. Rain,
sleet, freezing rain, and snow amounts may still change over the
next day as confidence in precipitation type and location
increases. Snow will occur ahead of the sleet and freezing
rain line with up to an inch possible along the lakeshore and up
to 3 to 4 inches expected in Northwest Ohio, around Toledo. A
winter weather advisory will likely be needed across much of the
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mostly for the
threat of freezing rain, although we may hit advisory criteria
for snow in NW OH as well.

On Thursday, a cold front will swing east across the area by the
evening hours, ushering in another chance for mixed-precipitation,
although it looks to be more of a snow, rain/snow mix more than
anything. Snow accumulations will range from half an inch up to an
inch and a half Thursday night into Friday morning across much of
the area. Temperatures throughout the day Friday will range in the
upper 20s to low 30s, then drop towards the low 20s by Friday night.
High pressure will briefly build across the area Saturday, with only
a slight chance of precipitation possible as we head towards
Saturday night.

 

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A wintry mix is expected Wednesday night and will linger across
Northwest Ohio into Thursday morning. One to four inches of snow and
sleet will impact the Toledo Metro area and surrounding counties by
Thursday morning. A brief period of freezing rain, accumulating to a
light glaze, is possible before precipitation tapers off.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Hopefully you didn't fall for it this time

Fall for what? A snowstorm or those lolipopp totals? I was enthusiastic seeing the shift yesterday but today it hasn’t gone the way I’d anticipated. It’s too bad the system is trending weaker but at least we’ll see some snow out of this. I’ll be honest, after yesterday’s runs I thought 4” was a good bet. Now I’m hoping to see at least 2-3” to whiten back up the landscape.

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From CLE. It's very rare that they mention Toledo. Usually they like to pretend their CWA ends in Sandusky and Toledo doesn't exist.

I'm a Sylvania guy as well and this is SO true.  I used to think they hated Toledo when I was a kid, LOL.  You remember when the Office was out of Toledo Express??

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I'm a Sylvania guy as well and this is SO true. I used to think they hated Toledo when I was a kid, LOL. You remember when the Office was out of Toledo Express??

Ah, hey Toledbro! I'm just South of you in Holland. No, I just moved here from Nebraska last Summer. When did they move?

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Left with NAM to ride. GFS at 18z still solid too. Who knows? Might be more plot twists yet..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Radar echos are moving more north northeast instead of northeast I believe that should favor the further west models.

 

Isn't that just tonight's little wave tho? Then a CF actually settles a bit S, thus the trends SE? At least that's what I thought the script called for last I looked. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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