2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System

[Clinton]

9z SREF

[Hawkeye]

I'm not buying the GFS and its closed low that pulls good snow well back into Iowa.  Other models are not showing this.  I think 1" is the most Cedar Rapids will get, and 0.5" or less is more likely.

[Tony]

00z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

 

06z GFS coming in hot for N IL/SE WI...Bigly Lehs/LES signal showing up this run...I panned through all 51 EPS ensembles members and many of them show a N/NNE flow persisting through Friday am rush hour.  As I mentioned before, this is prob one of the better set ups I've seen in quite some time.  Not only do we have the Arctic HP to our north seeding the cold air, but the lake is running AN and its wide open for business.  I'm actually getting pretty excited about this situation.  Could be one hellova lake plume on this side of the lake.  Reminds me of a LES set up a few years back around Christmas. Can't remember the year but we had a similar set up where that lake plume oscillated back and forth into SE WI/NE IL for 6-12 hours and dumped snow into Lake/Cook/DuPage/Will county.  Hopefully the trends continue.

 

LOT not too enthusiastic with the LES but the setup is almost perfect for our side of the lake to at least get lake enhancement to add to our totals. LES is always a wild card but still nice to see all the models showing this as a possibility through Friday morning. Either way it will be nice to have a moderate snowfall around these parts.

[Hawkeye]

12z NAM is no farther nw, still nothing nw of far southeast Iowa.  Throw the GFS out.

[Hawkeye]

12z NAM

 

[OKwx2k4]

Going to miss. What a waste.

50 miles NW....

Unbelievable.

[Clinton]

Sleet falling this morning, hope it doesn't last to long.

[bud2380]

3K NAM a little better than the regular NAM for my area and parts of E Iowa.  

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

What is becoming more uncertain now is just how long the
accumulating snow will last. Model data, primarily the ECMWF and
Canadian, supports extremely broad troughing over North America with
Southeast Michigan remaining in close proximity to strongest
absolute vorticity energy pivoting from strongly positive to neutral
tilt. As a result height falls linger over the area and lead to
continued synoptic forcing for ascent. A secondary jet entrance
region is shown to lift north along baroclinic zone to our east which
leads to restrengthening of the midlevel deformation axis grinding
away over Southeast Michigan throughout the day on Friday. Throw in
favorable lake enhancement component with flow off of Lake Huron and
likely fluffier snow ratios and additional accumulations (potentially
significant) of snow will be possible later Thursday and Friday.

[OKwx2k4]

This is really going to be a game-time type of dynamic for me. All modes of precip expected. 1.8 or so looks to be the snow forecast, but that could just as easily be .2" more ice on the line here or could go as sleet. Someone in my state is going to get a demolishing ice event. Up to a foot of snow being tossed around out in central Ok.

[Niko]

EURO looks really good for Detroit.....especially northern suburbs where I am

 

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON is a bit southeast, now only has a flurry up to Cedar Rapids.  I certainly expect the GFS to back off this morning.

[Andie]

While Ft. Worth won't get the big snow to our NW, we'll see sleet and some snow beginning tonight.

It's already darkening and clouds are much lower. However, a few staunch. ( and may I say - lunatic-) golfers are out.

 

This weather is only good for one thing in North Texas....the boom at auto repair body shops.

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

A 30-60 mile wide band of moderate snow, oscillating next 72hrs. Stock up the bar...

 

[Minny_Weather]

EURO looks really good for Detroit.....especially northern suburbs where I am

 

Looks good for me too. I can live with us sharing the wealth.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS  ... backed off in Iowa as expected.  There's a screw zone in Oklahoma.

 

[jaster220]

Looks like a long light snow here Thursday. 2-4"  sharp cutoff.  Jaster might be in the sweet spot. 

 

Would be 4 yrs in the making if it happens 

[Tom]

12z GFS...LOT mentioned the other day that snow ratios could be between 12-16:1 iirc...

 

[jaster220]

So, these are supposedly the same Kuchera formula 0z maps to h96 but show different amts.  I'm thinking one is the Reg Euro and the other is the HR? Can anyone confirm? Thx

 

Tom posted:

 

 

Niko posted:

 

[Niko]

Looks good for me too. I can live with us sharing the wealth.

Absolutely!

[bud2380]

I'm disappointed the GFS decreased so much around here, but if we did get 2" like the GFS shows, I'd still be pretty ok with that.  It's definitely the furthest NW outlier though, so not putting a lot of faith in it.  

[Wxmidatlantic]

Everyone will live and fall next 72hrs. That being said. Be glad you are in the game....

 

https://youtu.be/B9z87viDmOo

[jaster220]

I'm disappointed the GFS decreased so much around here, but if we did get 2" like the GFS shows, I'd still be pretty ok with that.  It's definitely the furthest NW outlier though, so not putting a lot of faith in it.  

 

By the snow fall maps posted since yesterday's "come back" runs, you'd think my office would be a bit more enthused. Not!  A few inches of nuisance snow per their overnight AFD written by one of their "this is everything that could go wrong" warminista Mets. Tone could flip with a different author this pm, but so typical for that office. Especially when the bigger threat is south of GR and synoptic vs LES. 

[Clinton]

12z GFS...LOT mentioned the other day that snow ratios could be between 12-16:1 iirc...

 

12z GFS almost perfect for mby.  Should make for a awesome parade tomorrow in KC

[Stacsh]

By the snow fall maps posted since yesterday's "come back" runs, you'd think my office would be a bit more enthused. Not!  A few inches of nuisance snow per their overnight AFD written by one of their "this is everything that could go wrong" warminista Mets. Tone could flip with a different author this pm, but so typical for that office. Especially when the bigger threat is south of GR and synoptic vs LES. 

 

Yeah, according to them 2-4 inches tops with tiny flake size here.  Maybe more for your area, but then they mention a mix SE of Grand Rapids so I get confused.  

[Wxmidatlantic]

In contrast we get old. Do we look better and sound great when we are younger. Yes. Winks to Andie.

 

https://youtu.be/NAEppFUWLfc

[Niko]

12z GFS almost perfect for mby.  Should make for a awesome parade tomorrow in KC

That should be fun! Parade + snowstorm. Wat a great combo!

[Clinton]

12z CMC

[Niko]

12z CMC

Your area seems like a lock w this. I can see this as a 4-8" for ya.

[Clinton]

Your area seems like a lock w this. I can see this as a 4-8" for ya.

Going to be close to that, heavier just to my SE

[Hawkeye]

12z UK...  It has taken an axe to Chicago's snow.  At this point I'm not expecting any snow here.  I hope others can cash in.

 

[Minny_Weather]

WTOL's RPM model has no more than 3" around here. That includes the Detroit metro.

[Wxmidatlantic]

We sometimes how..

 

https://youtu.be/wC6bo3XJnVQ

[CentralNebWeather]

Radar shows snow in parts of Nebraska.  I looked at many of the 511 cameras and nothing is falling except way out in the panhandle.  Clouds here, but some sun peaking through.  Dry air wins this time it would appear.

[Niko]

Going to be close to that, heavier just to my SE

Isn't anticipation fun or wat!

[Tony]

The SE trend today is definitely a concern but we are still 24+ hours away from start time so not going to worry too much just yet.

[Clinton]

12z Euro much further SE.  Yuck!

[Clinton]

Could be a tough forecast for KC

[Hawkeye]

Models have been struggling with the northern part of the energy.  They are now going more positive and progressive again, so the northwest tease is gone.  Instead, the system veers more ene.

[Tom]

12z Euro much further SE. Yuck!

Yikes! No bueno...