Jump to content
The Weather Forums

2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 745
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Nebraska weather, Sunday 66 degrees, Tuesday 20 degrees with low wind chills and accumulating snow. One reason among many that I love living on the Central Plains.

I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol

12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special    

Posted Images

Bring on spring!!

 

I think it's coming...this weekend, no?   ;)

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

DVN fairly tempered enthusiasm for this event.  Possibly headline worthy, but would clearly be a Winter Wx Advisory at most based on the way they are talking and what models are showing.

 

For snow amounts, or possibly rain amounts, models are generally
showing a progressive wave, and that should keep amounts from
lasting long enough in the cold air to produce a large amount of
snow, as there`s no function beyond frontogenesis to draw moisture
over the cold airmass, vs a closed mid level low, which is not
indicated. Still, this next system is our next opportunity for a
headlined event, and will continue to broadly outlook a threat of
snow/rain with it.

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites

DMX's take-

 

3.) Another more potent wintry system may impact Iowa Monday night
through Tuesday night...

Models have displayed excellent run-to-run consistency in pushing
some sort of shortwave through the Plains region, primarily across
Missouri. There seems to be a pronounced baroclinic zone through
the NE quadrant of this feature that looks to traverse across
Iowa, primarily south-central to southern Iowa... very possibly
impacting Interstate-80 as well.

Completing the picture, a 1030mb high looks to eject off the
Rockies along the US/Canada border, and propagate southeastward.
As such, strong CAA fills in on north of the boundary area,
serving to convert precip to snow. Long-range models coming into
decent agreement to where a non-Canadian/GEM blend seems to be
the best route to take. With the projected pressure gradient, wind
speeds could play a role in impacts via visibility reduction.
Snowfall amounts could be enough to make roads snow-covered and
slippery, especially in southern Iowa. Forecast confidence is not
high enough to produce specific amounts at this time, but this
system certainly bears watching.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

18z EC through the first wave.  Second wave is taking shape at the end of the run with snow moving NE out of Texas and Oklahoma.  Would also include any snow that may fall tomorrow.

1580925600-XE9dyNZOTro.png

 

Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lol

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lol

I don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave.

 

Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? 

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? 

Yes it has.  Many days left so we shouldn't loose hope yet.  I still think your area will at least do ok with this one.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, and 0z ICON's it's normal hot self tonight with tons of rain up here. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z UK is more solid for Iowa.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro continues the I-80 special http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-144-C-kucheratot.png

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

06z GFS...this is the first run whereby it's showing a stronger secondary southern stream wave tracking up towards the OHV which the Euro has been flashing.  We may be seeing this become an extension to this system and include it as part of the thread.  1-2 punch???

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 00z Ukie also on board with a stronger secondary wave coming up from the deep southern Gulf states and tracking near the OHV towards the end of the run.  This is basically what the Euro had been showing in previous runs along with the Canadian.  With some blocking showing up draped across the N GL's/Ontario, this may very well trend towards an interesting scenario for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA:

 

Dry and mild conditions on Monday give way to an ensuing cooler and
wetter pattern on Tuesday as the cyclonic side of an elongated trough
pivoting through the desert SW provides ascent opportunities
downstream, over the Midwest. Chances for rain/snow turns to all
snow by the middle of next week with low confidence on timing at this
point. Wednesday should be the messiest day next week with higher
QPF expected and temps near freezing. Stay Tuned for further updates.

  • Like 1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z ICON and GFS are both south and weak this morning, barely have anything for Cedar Rapids and points north.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has four pieces of energy now.  It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region.

 

Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS showing a substantial ice storm a county to my South, with mostly snow here.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Canadian is solid from Missouri to Michigan, nothing for Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Crap.  Now the UK is waving bye-bye to the northern half of Iowa, shifting south.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GGEM really honing in on a secondary wave that cuts up towards IN/OH....this system has big potential for the eastern Sub...showing snow falling from S TX up into the GL's.

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_sc.png

I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north.

Knowing the bias of the GFS being to progressive with the energy, it was sheared out this run but the GGEM/EURO/UKIE all are starting show a more developed SLP.  Today's 12z GGEM developed later in the run but the trend is what we should look for at this stage of the game.  Some of the 12z GEFS members are developing this second wave into a formidable storm.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.

Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu.

  • Like 2

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.

 

True, but we've seen it waffle back and forth wrt emphasizing each wave. Only time will tell if the trend is a blip or #freal

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Long duration snow event, I'm good with that.

 

Hafta keep in line with winter's M.O. here! Mix then maybe snow.. :rolleyes: 

 

Come on already, get us a legit snowstorm without the contamination BS - Thanks!

 

 

- Wintry mix late Monday night and Tuesday -

 

A low pressure system moving northeast across the lower Ohio

Valley region is expected to bring a wintry mix of pcpn to our

fcst area as early as Monday night but mainly for Tuesday. It is

too early to get into too many specifics. However at this time

thermal profiles suggest a mainly snow event for our northern

forecast area with the wintry mix near to south of I-96 Tuesday.

Precipitation will then transition to snow across our area

Wednesday as cold air advects in on the back side of the system.

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...