Wxmidatlantic 261 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Zzzzzzz.......Another nickel and dimer.Love it.... https://youtu.be/tOCCvN8YDuc 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 12z EPS mean and there are some good hits with the ensembles. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FarmerRick 211 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Bring on spring!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Wxmidatlantic 261 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Bring on spring? T https://youtu.be/UoKvUYbGu7A Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Bring on spring!! I think it's coming...this weekend, no? 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 DVN fairly tempered enthusiasm for this event. Possibly headline worthy, but would clearly be a Winter Wx Advisory at most based on the way they are talking and what models are showing. For snow amounts, or possibly rain amounts, models are generallyshowing a progressive wave, and that should keep amounts fromlasting long enough in the cold air to produce a large amount ofsnow, as there`s no function beyond frontogenesis to draw moistureover the cold airmass, vs a closed mid level low, which is notindicated. Still, this next system is our next opportunity for aheadlined event, and will continue to broadly outlook a threat ofsnow/rain with it. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 18Z GFS continues nice hit for many-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
East Dubzz 1312 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Full 18z GFS run: 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 DMX's take- 3.) Another more potent wintry system may impact Iowa Monday nightthrough Tuesday night...Models have displayed excellent run-to-run consistency in pushingsome sort of shortwave through the Plains region, primarily acrossMissouri. There seems to be a pronounced baroclinic zone throughthe NE quadrant of this feature that looks to traverse acrossIowa, primarily south-central to southern Iowa... very possiblyimpacting Interstate-80 as well.Completing the picture, a 1030mb high looks to eject off theRockies along the US/Canada border, and propagate southeastward.As such, strong CAA fills in on north of the boundary area,serving to convert precip to snow. Long-range models coming intodecent agreement to where a non-Canadian/GEM blend seems to bethe best route to take. With the projected pressure gradient, windspeeds could play a role in impacts via visibility reduction.Snowfall amounts could be enough to make roads snow-covered andslippery, especially in southern Iowa. Forecast confidence is nothigh enough to produce specific amounts at this time, but thissystem certainly bears watching. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
The Snowman 264 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Based on this winter's trends of slight-chance-of-snow events turning into 0.5 - 1.0" and 6"+ forecasts turning into 2-4", an early 1" call for Omaha shouldn't be too far off the mark when all's said and done 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 18z EC through the first wave. Second wave is taking shape at the end of the run with snow moving NE out of Texas and Oklahoma. Would also include any snow that may fall tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 18z EC through the first wave. Second wave is taking shape at the end of the run with snow moving NE out of Texas and Oklahoma. Would also include any snow that may fall tomorrow. Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lol 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Boy, 18z runs wanna put me on the same ol southern fringe I've become accustom to. Sure hope 6z or the 12z runs end up being more accurate. That 2nd wave has "misses me south" concerns too. Guess I've seen too many storms not work out the last 2 winters. Really need a confidence booster event, lolI don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 I don't have a good feeling on this one for mby, our best hope for a bigger snow is to have a northward trend with that second wave. Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Well, if there's any consolation in this winter, warm and NW has won out for any stronger systems. Also, hasn't the secondary wave generally been the stronger of the two when we've had such set-ups? Yes it has. Many days left so we shouldn't loose hope yet. I still think your area will at least do ok with this one. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 00Z GFS not as robust with moisture but still decent event for much of C and S.IA 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Yeah, and 0z ICON's it's normal hot self tonight with tons of rain up here. Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 UKIE with 2 waves- I-80 special in IA. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 00z UK is more solid for Iowa. 4 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3783 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro continues the I-80 special http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-144-C-kucheratot.png 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 00z Euro...another look... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 00z EPS...the trend is for a much broader/wider snow shield out in the Plains/MW and into the GL's. Seems to be hinting at a potentially more organized system than previous runs. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 06z GFS...this is the first run whereby it's showing a stronger secondary southern stream wave tracking up towards the OHV which the Euro has been flashing. We may be seeing this become an extension to this system and include it as part of the thread. 1-2 punch??? 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 The 00z Ukie also on board with a stronger secondary wave coming up from the deep southern Gulf states and tracking near the OHV towards the end of the run. This is basically what the Euro had been showing in previous runs along with the Canadian. With some blocking showing up draped across the N GL's/Ontario, this may very well trend towards an interesting scenario for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 6z Euro still looking good for I-80 special. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 NOAA: Dry and mild conditions on Monday give way to an ensuing cooler andwetter pattern on Tuesday as the cyclonic side of an elongated troughpivoting through the desert SW provides ascent opportunitiesdownstream, over the Midwest. Chances for rain/snow turns to allsnow by the middle of next week with low confidence on timing at thispoint. Wednesday should be the messiest day next week with higherQPF expected and temps near freezing. Stay Tuned for further updates. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Slight shift south with this mornings EPS mean Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Clinton- This should be your month (Feb) for snow and hopefully for others in the deep south that have been wanted to see snow so badly. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Clinton- This should be your month (Feb) for snow and hopefully for others in the deep south that have been wanted to see snow so badlyHope so bud, I should have a few chances. But that AO and NAO 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Hope so bud, I should have a few chances. But that AO and NAO I know, but don't worry about that because Ma Nature will help us and make the EPO n PNA (-)! 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z ICON and GFS are both south and weak this morning, barely have anything for Cedar Rapids and points north. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS has four pieces of energy now. It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region. Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS has four pieces of energy now. It is still trending toward a better final piece of energy for the eastern part of the region. Some of the snow in east-central Iowa is from today. Good hit for Niko 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like a solid 3-5 event again Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Good hit for NikoYes Sir! 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5214 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS showing a substantial ice storm a county to my South, with mostly snow here. 1 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Canadian is solid from Missouri to Michigan, nothing for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z GGEM really honing in on a secondary wave that cuts up towards IN/OH....this system has big potential for the eastern Sub...showing snow falling from S TX up into the GL's. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4578 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Crap. Now the UK is waving bye-bye to the northern half of Iowa, shifting south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3517 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Ukie further south as well 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 12z GGEM really honing in on a secondary wave that cuts up towards IN/OH....this system has big potential for the eastern Sub...showing snow falling from S TX up into the GL's. I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Crap. Now the UK is waving bye-bye to the northern half of Iowa, shifting south.First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16870 Posted January 31, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 I like the trend on that second wave, stronger and further north.Knowing the bias of the GFS being to progressive with the energy, it was sheared out this run but the GGEM/EURO/UKIE all are starting show a more developed SLP. Today's 12z GGEM developed later in the run but the trend is what we should look for at this stage of the game. Some of the 12z GEFS members are developing this second wave into a formidable storm. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year.Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4408 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Yep, or even the 3rd wave for later on Thu.Long duration snow event, I'm good with that. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 First wave is trending weaker and more sheared out, second wave is trending stronger, we've seen this happen several times this year. True, but we've seen it waffle back and forth wrt emphasizing each wave. Only time will tell if the trend is a blip or #freal 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Long duration snow event, I'm good with that.Absolutely bud! 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted January 31, 2020 Report Share Posted January 31, 2020 Long duration snow event, I'm good with that. Hafta keep in line with winter's M.O. here! Mix then maybe snow.. Come on already, get us a legit snowstorm without the contamination BS - Thanks! - Wintry mix late Monday night and Tuesday - A low pressure system moving northeast across the lower OhioValley region is expected to bring a wintry mix of pcpn to ourfcst area as early as Monday night but mainly for Tuesday. It istoo early to get into too many specifics. However at this timethermal profiles suggest a mainly snow event for our northernforecast area with the wintry mix near to south of I-96 Tuesday.Precipitation will then transition to snow across our areaWednesday as cold air advects in on the back side of the system. 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
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