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2/4 - 2/7 Multi-Wave Storm System


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Nebraska weather, Sunday 66 degrees, Tuesday 20 degrees with low wind chills and accumulating snow. One reason among many that I love living on the Central Plains.

I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol

12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special    

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Keep moving south plz. I don't want an ice storm.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Looks like a solid 3-5 event again

 

I would do anything for 3" of snow. We got that much everytime I breathed last year, but now I think it's just physically impossible to get that much snow. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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GEFS is pretty weak now as well.  

 

Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles"

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The energy is too strung-out and positively tilted.  Much of the moisture coming up from the gulf just veers eastward through the Ohio Valley.  We need some more-focused, neutral/negatively-tilted energy to help pull moisture back into the cold sector, but there is none.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Really, until it's snowing and looking legit on radar, this whole event could still be a nasty "now you see it, now you don't" shell game by the models just like we experienced a couple weeks ago. With too many waves to focus on, the models missed some key ingredients that caused that entire series of waves to become utter trash. Don't want to encourage the depressing thoughts, but let's keep it real. Every office with Warning headlines got their butts spanked by crappy model performance. While it will be a new month, it will still be the same winter. Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled model run "bobbles"

 

This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. 

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The Euro has shifted the better, final piece of energy to the Appalachians/East coast.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special

Always good to have the Euro on your side.  So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event.  I'll have to read the afternoon disco.  A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday.  

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Always good to have the Euro on your side.  So far NWS Hastings hasn't been too excited about this event.  I'll have to read the afternoon disco.  A couple of inches would be nice as our snow will largely be gone by Sunday with temps tomorrow of 60 and 66 on Sunday.  

12z EPS coming in good agreement with the Euro Op....this is through the 7th which includes the second wave as many ensemble members are showing up.

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12z Euro...not a bad system from NE east into MI...I-80 special

 

Can only hope it's correct this time. Tbh, after the way the models handled the 11-12th multi-wave "fiasco storm" so poorly, I'm more than a little concerned. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco. I like it.

 

LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020

 

The weather takes a turn for the colder on Monday behind this

front. Highs are only expected to be in the upper 20s and 30s,

and this could occur in the morning in some locations. Slight

chances for light snow also arrive during the daytime, although

better chances won`t arrive until the main storm system begins to

move out of the Rockies Monday night.

 

Models continue to show this system beginning as a nice closed

low a 500mb, but filling and becoming more positively tilted as

it moves across the central Plains on Tuesday. Nevertheless,

models have been consistently producing a swath of 2 to 5 inches

of snow across the center of the forecast area, most of which

would fall during the day on Tuesday. With the cold airmass in

place, this snow should be pretty fluffy, with snow ratios

possibly in the 15:1 to 20:1 range. Wind gusts to around 35 MPH

are also expected to accompany the system, which will lead to

additional issues from blowing and drifting snow.

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This winter is becoming an Historic dud here. 

 

It cannot even get futility correct. It's futile at futility.. :lol:   :rolleyes:  :wacko:

 

NWS CVG Ohio.jpeg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:(  Rather disappointing that WPC does not find anything impressing them into painting sig snows east of the mountain west next week during the time-frame. Sad state of affairs continues..

 

 

20200131 hazards_d3_7.png

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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No sir but we can do 13 lol

Yeah, 13. 11 is an ice storm for me.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Finally, some 18z runs that weren't a total whiff north. Encouraging trend, let's hope it sticks.. ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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evolving into a turd...

 

Gotta have cold for storms to work with and that's just been plainly lacking DJ(F too?). I think the models again fell for "cyber cold" in the mid-range and tried to make a "storm" outta this wave. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00Z GFS is weak sauce...

 

:rolleyes: Never weak sauce at h300+

 

20200131 18z GFS h354 Surf.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00Z GFS is weak sauce...

 

evolving into a turd...

 

nvrmd. shoulda known you were talking about yby  :rolleyes:

 

GFS actually trending towards other guidance amping the secondary and yes, wave 1 is weaker (this run anyways) but over this way it's much improved. 

 

20200201 0z GFS h162 KCH snow.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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evolving into a turd...

 

'sides, IA got decent snow last week while we got melt-down rainer. Just look at today's snow depth map and I see Iowa still nicely 4+ while SMI is looking like swiss cheese pathetic patches. 

 

nsm_depth_20200131_Midwest.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We'll see where the CMC and Euro come in tonight, but there is pretty darn good agreement this far out now that GFS is onboard with amped secondary. Always leary of being in a bullseye at 5 days out, but the envelope seems to be converging for once.

 

Kinda annoying how it keeps getting pushed back tho. Thread title indicates storm is already going Monday! 

 

First wave was supposed to be big, but then the models turned that into a head fake the last 36 hrs. Some were hinting at 2nd wave, now others are  joining that idea and losing wave-1. This time tomorrow, wave-2 will be lost and we'll be hoping for wave-3 to go big. I'll give it a "pass" tho if it comes thru in the end.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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nvrmd. shoulda known you were talking about yby  :rolleyes:

 

GFS actually trending towards other guidance amping the secondary and yes, wave 1 is weaker (this run anyways) but over this way it's much improved. 

 

attachicon.gif20200201 0z GFS h162 KCH snow.png

Thats a good hit for you guys in Mich and Chicago.  I'll take my 4 inches and be happy with that.

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Kinda annoying how it keeps getting pushed back tho. First wave was supposed to be big, but then the models turned that into a head fake the last 36 hrs. Some were hinting at 2nd wave, now others are joining that idea and losing wave-1. This time tomorrow, wave-2 will be lost and we'll be hoping for wave-3 to go big. I'll give it a "pass" tho if it comes thru in the end. ;)

Indeed, and of course after I praised model agreement the 00Z Canadian is way less amped with all waves. Oddly enough it is lockstep with the ICON. Went from rainer a few runs ago to mostly a miss to the south.

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Yeah, the UK has nothing in Iowa from the first wave, but it's much farther nw with the second wave.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Clinton hopes not! Would love to see past 144 hours....looks like it really digs the second (third?) wave.

 

THIS! Nice that we can finally see snow maps, etc. But wow, how much we more need a d6(+) model to counter-act the wishy-washy N American products. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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