Jump to content
The Weather Forums

February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

It looks like the fact I was abstaining in protest really got some legs! I just couldn’t log in for several days after the sealed indictment was handed down.   Prison really changes a man, though. I

1 year ago. This is the night we had thunder snow and about 4 inches in 1 hour. Very cool moment with my son as we were standing outside watching the lightning light up the snow flakes. I really made

Posted Images

Snow is coming here!!

 

 

You seem more excited than usual over what is probably an inch of wet snow.   You must be feeling positive overall now.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

You seem more excited than usual over what is probably an inch of wet snow. You must be feeling positive overall now. :)

It's a pretty good pattern for the Coast.

 

-8 to -10 850's with onshore flow and a decent amount of moisture. Bet he gets a couple inches.

  • Like 2

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF looks more blocky than the 12Z run... much more like the 12Z EPS.

 

Not too cold though...probably more realistic.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a pretty good pattern for the Coast.

 

-8 to -10 850's with onshore flow and a decent amount of moisture. Bet he gets a couple inches.

 

 

The ECMWF shows a little snow out there early on Sunday morning... and then a little rain in the early afternoon with a temp around 40... and then totally dry all the way through Tuesday morning.   So it probably has to come on Sunday morning.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECMWF shows a little snow out there early on Sunday morning... and then a little rain in the early afternoon with a temp around 40... and then totally dry all the way through Tuesday morning. So it probably has to come on Sunday morning.

More than just the Euro showing snow here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Much improved GFS Ensembles! Definitely the coldest ensembles yet and long range looks rather interesting now. Chilly.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima

Decent backdoor cold and check out the cluster of members around -12c to -17c.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

6z NAM has more precip around Sunday for the Central and North Sound. With 850's near -8 and 925mb temps around -2, any moderate precip rates should be good for snow down to at least 500 feet even if temps are near 40 outside of these showers.

 

00z:

qpf_012h.us_nw (1).png

 

6z:

qpf_012h.us_nw.png

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

January featured a lot of notable weather for SEA:

 

-Lots of rain - 9.23" 

-Lots of rainy days - 30/31

-0 "sunny" day - It was cloudy!. Nov. 30 was officially last "sunny" day per S. Sistek 

-Some snow - 0.7"

-Barely missed out on an arctic blast and some major  snow. 

-A Record high - 62F (tied)

-A warm January overall. Avg - 45.0F (+3F departure) . 

-Moderate windstorm to end the month. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

And SEA is racing ahead on February... close to an inch before daylight on the first day. Normal for the entire month is 3.5 inches.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

SEA at 1.02 inches for February now... almost 30 % of normal for the month.

 

SEA could be totally dry until almost April and still be around normal for the year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Total snow through Monday afternoon per the 06Z ECMWF... moisture looks sparse after about noon today.   

 

Tomorrow is totally dry... except along the immediate coast and that is mostly rain.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total-sno

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting nailed with the west wind now. Just hit the 14hr mark with the generator running...On the same tank of fuel...impressive!! Outages now back up after being down to the 4K mark in my blob, up to 6k due to this westerly gale! Temps have plummeted from 50 down to 44 in 20min.

.30” on the day.

A6C1D3F5-48B8-4BB1-9871-027BBB49C5C3.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting nailed with the west wind now. Just hit the 14hr mark with the generator running...On the same tank of fuel...impressive!! Outages now back up after being down to the 4K mark in my blob, up to 6k due to this westerly gale! Temps have plummeted from 50 down to 44 in 20min.

.30” on the day.

We kept our electricity so no overnight work for me.  If it does go out my main concern is keeping the pump under the house powered.  It is hooked up to a backup battery but unsure how long that would last.  TerraFirma put in the system. 

Used to be a swamp down there...now you need to take your shoes off :)

4E878C6F-C6F3-4A4E-8676-BC655C9268E5.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty decent storm this was...were at 1.10” for February now with more rain coming next week. Southerlies peaked last night between 7:30pm and 10pm. Still breezy out there but not as wild as last night. Never lost power just a few flickers. Saw a handful of substations flashing out in the distance last night.

  • Like 1

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

Link to post
Share on other sites

Finished as the 2nd warmest January on record with a +5.9 departure, only 1953 was worse being +0.4F warmer. Time for a new month!

 

Currently 52F and raining.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites

With 10.27” for January...it’s the 5th wettest month I’ve recorded since 05. November 2006 (15.71”) January 2006 (12.36”) December 2015 (11.61”) and October 2016 (11.23”) are my top 4 rainfall months.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

Link to post
Share on other sites

52*

.82

South wind 18–25

Probably won’t see more than a rain snow mix in our area if we’re lucky lol. I still have hope that something happens in mid to late February. Nothing on the horizon yet in terms of winter weather but we will see. (Quoted the wrong one oops).

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS continues to trend warmer with the trough for next weekend... its actually warmer than the ECMWF and EPS by Sunday now.   

 

So much for the GFS leading the way on cold.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

This has been very consistent over the last several days...Mid month is where it’s going to be.

 

I did name that one little warm rouge guy The Tim Member.

Temp down to 42.

It just does not look that cold though overall. Even the blocky runs don't look too cold.

 

I imagine this pattern on the 12Z GFS is also a negative PNA pattern. As been mentioned... that chart is just a summary of the current models.

 

20200201-083428.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

It just does not look that cold though overall. Even the blocky runs don't look too cold.

I imagine this pattern on the 12Z GFS is also a negative PNA pattern. As been mentioned... that chart is just a summary of the current models. 20200201-083428.jpg

Things looked more interesting a few days ago...but now not so good for the next 10 days. Maybe things set up right in late February like 2011 and 2018.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

Link to post
Share on other sites

Things looked more interesting a few days ago...but now not so good for the next 10 days. Maybe things set up right in late February like 2011 and 2018.

Maybe... too early to say anything about the second half of Febraury.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe... too early to say anything about the second half of Febraury.

yeah I understand...all I mean is I have hope for something to happen. Obviously too early to say what will happen even a week from now.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...