February 2020 Wx Obs and Model Discussion

[iFred 5171]

Early Spring?

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Hope it's a fun filled February up there.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Title says nothing about PNW.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Title says nothing about PNW.

I'm lost already.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Early Spring?

We will find out on Sunday.

[GHweatherChris 3494]

Snow is coming here!!

[TT-SEA 3635]

Snow is coming here!!

 

 

You seem more excited than usual over what is probably an inch of wet snow.   You must be feeling positive overall now.  

[bainbridgekid 3856]

You seem more excited than usual over what is probably an inch of wet snow. You must be feeling positive overall now.

It's a pretty good pattern for the Coast.

 

-8 to -10 850's with onshore flow and a decent amount of moisture. Bet he gets a couple inches.

[TT-SEA 3635]

00Z ECMWF looks more blocky than the 12Z run... much more like the 12Z EPS.

 

Not too cold though...probably more realistic.

[TT-SEA 3635]

It's a pretty good pattern for the Coast.

 

-8 to -10 850's with onshore flow and a decent amount of moisture. Bet he gets a couple inches.

 

 

The ECMWF shows a little snow out there early on Sunday morning... and then a little rain in the early afternoon with a temp around 40... and then totally dry all the way through Tuesday morning.   So it probably has to come on Sunday morning.  

[seattleweatherguy 477]

Interesting thoughts by Jay on the mid feb potential 

 

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1223291210376212480/photo/2

[TT-SEA 3635]

00Z EPS in line with its 12Z run for next weekend...

 

[GHweatherChris 3494]

You seem more excited than usual over what is probably an inch of wet snow. You must be feeling positive overall now.

Yup!

[GHweatherChris 3494]

The ECMWF shows a little snow out there early on Sunday morning... and then a little rain in the early afternoon with a temp around 40... and then totally dry all the way through Tuesday morning. So it probably has to come on Sunday morning.

More than just the Euro showing snow here.

[TT-SEA 3635]

00Z EPS at day 10...

 

 

[Killahkarl 2]

Hi i am new posting but been following the thread for years. I am still pissed off from our arctic non blast that teased me in kent on west hill at about 400ft or so.

[TT-SEA 3635]

00Z EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

[Killahkarl 2]

So far here i have had positive splats but no accumulation this year. Need a south sound special convergence zone to make me happy.

[DJ Droppin 9299]

Much improved GFS Ensembles! Definitely the coldest ensembles yet and long range looks rather interesting now. Chilly.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima

Decent backdoor cold and check out the cluster of members around -12c to -17c.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[bainbridgekid 3856]

6z NAM has more precip around Sunday for the Central and North Sound. With 850's near -8 and 925mb temps around -2, any moderate precip rates should be good for snow down to at least 500 feet even if temps are near 40 outside of these showers.

 

00z:

 

6z:

[bainbridgekid 3856]

Nice CZ Sunday night on the 6z GFS Hi-Res. This is just between 10 PM Sunday and 4 AM Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

Raining heavily this morning in Tacoma...approaching a 1/2” of rain here for February at 2:30am.

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

Yesterday ended up with 0.63” of rain to put January at 10.27” for the final total.

[MillCreekMike 504]

Nice CZ Sunday night on the 6z GFS Hi-Res. This is just between 10 PM Sunday and 4 AM Monday.

 

qpf_006h.us_city_sea (2).png

Starting to look like we might be in the sweet spot again.

[Cloud 1521]

January featured a lot of notable weather for SEA:

 

-Lots of rain - 9.23" 

-Lots of rainy days - 30/31

-0 "sunny" day - It was cloudy!. Nov. 30 was officially last "sunny" day per S. Sistek 

-Some snow - 0.7"

-Barely missed out on an arctic blast and some major  snow. 

-A Record high - 62F (tied)

-A warm January overall. Avg - 45.0F (+3F departure) . 

-Moderate windstorm to end the month. 

[TT-SEA 3635]

And SEA is racing ahead on February... close to an inch before daylight on the first day. Normal for the entire month is 3.5 inches.

[Chewbacca Defense 1092]

Ended up with 2.45” between yesterday and this morning.  1.72” yesterday and .73” today.  Pretty impressive!  Sitting at 9.85” for the year after that.

[Omegaraptor 2374]

Ensembles suggest a wonderful mountain snow pattern mid-month.

[TT-SEA 3635]

SEA at 1.02 inches for February now... almost 30 % of normal for the month.

 

SEA could be totally dry until almost April and still be around normal for the year.

[Mr Marine Layer 1421]

Since this topic says nothing about the PNW, it's a sunny day here in Southern California today and should reach the low 80s.

[Jginmartini 3783]

52*

.82

South wind 18–25

[Jginmartini 3783]

Time to start focusing on white stuff or at least chiller temps since this event is winding down 

[TT-SEA 3635]

Total snow through Monday afternoon per the 06Z ECMWF... moisture looks sparse after about noon today.   

 

Tomorrow is totally dry... except along the immediate coast and that is mostly rain.

 

[MossMan 10563]

Getting nailed with the west wind now. Just hit the 14hr mark with the generator running...On the same tank of fuel...impressive!! Outages now back up after being down to the 4K mark in my blob, up to 6k due to this westerly gale! Temps have plummeted from 50 down to 44 in 20min.

.30” on the day.

[Jginmartini 3783]

Pump under the house firing off every minute currently!  The wet continues !!!

[Jginmartini 3783]

Getting nailed with the west wind now. Just hit the 14hr mark with the generator running...On the same tank of fuel...impressive!! Outages now back up after being down to the 4K mark in my blob, up to 6k due to this westerly gale! Temps have plummeted from 50 down to 44 in 20min.

.30” on the day.

We kept our electricity so no overnight work for me.  If it does go out my main concern is keeping the pump under the house powered.  It is hooked up to a backup battery but unsure how long that would last.  TerraFirma put in the system. 

Used to be a swamp down there...now you need to take your shoes off

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

Pretty decent storm this was...were at 1.10” for February now with more rain coming next week. Southerlies peaked last night between 7:30pm and 10pm. Still breezy out there but not as wild as last night. Never lost power just a few flickers. Saw a handful of substations flashing out in the distance last night.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5575]

Finished as the 2nd warmest January on record with a +5.9 departure, only 1953 was worse being +0.4F warmer. Time for a new month!

 

Currently 52F and raining.

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

With 10.27” for January...it’s the 5th wettest month I’ve recorded since 05. November 2006 (15.71”) January 2006 (12.36”) December 2015 (11.61”) and October 2016 (11.23”) are my top 4 rainfall months.

[MossMan 10563]

Saw a few friends posting on FB that live along the Stilly saying it’s getting quite deep on their property.

Temp down to 43. Rain has stopped.

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

52*

.82

South wind 18–25

Probably won’t see more than a rain snow mix in our area if we’re lucky lol. I still have hope that something happens in mid to late February. Nothing on the horizon yet in terms of winter weather but we will see. (Quoted the wrong one oops).

[MossMan 10563]

Found this FB group last night...It’s kind of fun!

[TT-SEA 3635]

GFS continues to trend warmer with the trough for next weekend... its actually warmer than the ECMWF and EPS by Sunday now.   

 

So much for the GFS leading the way on cold.  

[Front Ranger 7604]

Pump under the house firing off every minute currently! The wet continues !!!

Looks like aside from some brief wet snow Sunday night, most places will get a break from much precip from now through Tuesday morning.

[MossMan 10563]

This has been very consistent over the last several days...Mid month is where it’s going to be.

 

I did name that one little warm rouge guy The Tim Member.

Temp down to 42.

[TT-SEA 3635]

This has been very consistent over the last several days...Mid month is where it’s going to be.

 

I did name that one little warm rouge guy The Tim Member.

Temp down to 42.

It just does not look that cold though overall. Even the blocky runs don't look too cold.

 

I imagine this pattern on the 12Z GFS is also a negative PNA pattern. As been mentioned... that chart is just a summary of the current models.

 

[TT-SEA 3635]

The 12Z GFS does show a cold trough after day 10... but cold is being pushed back on the GFS lately.

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

It just does not look that cold though overall. Even the blocky runs don't look too cold.

I imagine this pattern on the 12Z GFS is also a negative PNA pattern. As been mentioned... that chart is just a summary of the current models.

Things looked more interesting a few days ago...but now not so good for the next 10 days. Maybe things set up right in late February like 2011 and 2018.

[TT-SEA 3635]

Things looked more interesting a few days ago...but now not so good for the next 10 days. Maybe things set up right in late February like 2011 and 2018.

Maybe... too early to say anything about the second half of Febraury.

[TacomaWaWx 4336]

Maybe... too early to say anything about the second half of Febraury.

yeah I understand...all I mean is I have hope for something to happen. Obviously too early to say what will happen even a week from now.